Every reporter: Chen Mengyu Every editor: Wei Wenyi
"At the end of 2023, the financial regulatory authorities will continue to release good news, and if the relevant support policies such as 'three not less than' are implemented in detail, the financial pressure on real estate enterprises is expected to be eased. ”
The China Index Research Institute recently released a report pointing out that in 2024, the restrictive policies introduced in the overheating stage of the market are still expected to continue to be optimized and adjusted, and there is room for policies at both ends of supply and demand.
According to the monitoring of the middle index, from January to November this year, more than 200 provinces and cities (counties) across the country have issued real estate regulation and control policies more than 600 times, and most cities have basically liberalized restrictive policies.
In the view of Huang Yu, CEO of China Index Holdings and executive vice president of China Index Research Institute, for those who just need to buy a house, the real estate market has undergone nearly two years of deep adjustment, and it is now the time to buy a house. For the demand for improved home purchases, a number of high-quality land plots have been transacted in various places in the past two years, and these plots will gradually enter the market in 2024, so that buyers can choose better products.
Huang Yu, CEO of China Index Holdings and Executive Vice President of China Index Research Institute Image source: provided by the interviewee
A total of more than 1.65 million units have been delivered
In 2023, property market regulation policies based on the demand side, the enterprise side and the new development model are three more important types.
Huang Yu pointed out that first, from the demand side, to support the release of rigid and improved housing demand, the policy focuses on reducing the cost of housing purchase, lowering the threshold for buying a house, and smoothing the chain of primary and secondary housing.
On July 24, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee first mentioned that "the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes". Since the end of August, a number of policies of the regulatory authorities have been gradually put in place. From a local point of view, the main measures are to optimize restrictive policies such as purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price restrictions, as well as to increase provident fund loan support.
Up to now, most cities across the country have implemented the policy of "recognising the house but not recognising the loan" for the first house. Since the beginning of this year, 14 second-tier cities such as Nanjing, Hefei, Jinan, and Qingdao have completely canceled the purchase restriction policy, and many second-tier cities have relaxed the purchase restriction by optimizing the number of housing units, optimizing the scope of purchase restrictions, and relaxing the restrictions on housing purchases.
Second, from the perspective of enterprises, the risk of default of real estate enterprise bonds has been resolved, the rules for land auctions have been continuously optimized, and the supporting funds for "guaranteed delivery of buildings" have been accelerated.
In terms of corporate financing, from the beginning of the year, the regulatory authorities clearly implemented the "16 financial articles" and "second arrow" policies, and emphasized that "it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head real estate enterprises and implement the plan to improve the balance sheet of high-quality real estate enterprises", to November, a number of ministries and commissions held a symposium on enterprises to implement relevant measures, and the financial sector put forward the "three not less than" goals, "if the relevant support policies are truly implemented, the financial pressure on real estate enterprises is expected to be eased".
In terms of land auction rules, the first is to lower the threshold for enterprises to participate in the auction and increase the profit margin of land plots, so as to increase the willingness of enterprises to acquire land, including moderately raising or relaxing the residential sales limit, reducing the deposit ratio, and extending the payment time of land transfer fees; According to the monitoring of the China Index, as of the end of November, 18 of the 22 cities have actually implemented the "cancellation of land price limit", which is conducive to stabilizing market expectations.
In terms of "guaranteed delivery of buildings", in August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said: "At present, the work of 'ensuring the delivery of buildings' in various places is progressing smoothly, and the resumption of work and construction delivery of projects are being accelerated. The overall resumption rate of the 'Guaranteed Delivery Building' special loan project is close to 100%, with a total of more than 1.65 million housing units delivered, and the housing delivery rate of the first batch of special loan projects exceeding 60%. ”
Third, to explore the new development model of the real estate industry, the construction of the "three major projects" has been mentioned many times.
On July 14, the Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China deliberated and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Construction of Public Infrastructure for Ordinary and Emergency Purposes" in Super Megacities. On July 21, the Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China deliberated and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Super and Mega Cities". On July 24, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that "it is necessary to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, actively promote the transformation of urban villages and the construction of public infrastructure for 'ordinary and emergency purposes', and revitalize and transform all kinds of idle real estate".
On October 12, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, all localities are in accordance with the deployment, to carry out the formulation of supporting policies, to find out the base number of urban villages, the preparation of transformation project plans, etc., the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development urban village transformation information system has been put into operation for two months, has been in the storage of 162 urban village transformation projects.
Policies for core first- and second-tier cities will continue to be optimized
As for the policy effect, the China Index Research Institute believes that throughout the year, the market has heated up significantly in the first quarter; the volume and price have fallen in the middle of the year, and the market performance has been sluggish; the central government and governments at all levels have stepped up policy support at the end of August; the year-on-year decline in sales from September to October has narrowed, but the policy effect is not sustained enough due to the impact of factors such as residents' income expectations and housing price decline expectations; and the market is still facing downward pressure at the end of the year.
Huang Yu pointed out that in terms of sales, the national market continued to decline, with the year-on-year growth of existing house sales, which performed better than off-plan houses, and second-hand houses in key cities performed better than new houses.
From January to November 2023, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 100509 million square meters, down 8.0% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing were 105318 billion yuan, down 5.2%, of which residential sales decreased by 4.3%.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
In terms of the land market, the transaction area of residential land in 300 cities fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, and central state-owned enterprises are still the main force in land acquisition.
Huang Yu said that the degree of recovery of the sales side is still a key factor affecting the sentiment of the land market, since the beginning of this year, the heat of the property market in most cities has been insufficient, and only some cities or individual plots in the land market are hot, and the overall downturn has not changed.
From the perspective of enterprises, on the sales side, the sales of the top 100 enterprises decreased year-on-year, and the sales of central state-owned enterprises increased year-on-year. From January to November 2023, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises will be 5,737.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and the decline rate will be 1.6 percentage points higher than that in October. The sales of real estate companies in all camps have declined.
Data source: China Finger Research Institute
On the land acquisition side, the amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, and central state-owned enterprises became the main force in land acquisition. From January to November 2023, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 enterprises was 1,085.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and the decline rate was 3.4 percentage points narrower than that in October. Among the top 50 enterprises and the top 100 enterprises, the number of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises accounted for more than 70%.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
On the financing side, from January to November 2023, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 628.79 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and in November, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 41.28 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year and up 49.4% month-on-month.
Data source: China Finger Research Institute
Huang Yu suggested that all localities should implement the guidelines and strategies that have been introduced as soon as possible to ensure the smooth implementation of the policies; stable private enterprises need to seize the current development opportunities and make appropriate transformations to achieve healthier development; and insurance real estate enterprises need to solve the past problems as soon as possible and take active actions to avoid missing the period of government support.
It is expected that in 2024, the policies at both ends of supply and demand will continue to exert force, the policies of core first- and second-tier cities will continue to be optimized, and the financial support measures for real estate enterprises will be implemented in detail, and the "three major projects" will be the main direction of policy development.
On the demand side, reducing the cost of buying a house and lowering the threshold for buying a house is still the focus of policy optimization, and first-tier cities are expected to reduce the down payment ratio of second homes, reduce mortgage interest rates (which are expected to be tilted towards rigid demand), optimize the identification standards for ordinary houses, reduce transaction taxes and fees, etc., and it is also possible for first-tier cities to optimize suburban purchase restrictions; core second-tier cities are expected to completely cancel purchase restrictions; more low-energy cities may promote the release of housing demand through the issuance of housing purchase subsidies and other means.
On the supply side, under the requirement of "promoting the virtuous cycle of finance and real estate", the financial support policies on the enterprise side are expected to continue to be refined, and the "three not less than" will improve the financing environment for enterprises;
At the same time, the rules for land auctions in various regions are expected to continue to be relaxed, driving the increase in the activity of the land market; the supporting policies of the "three major projects" are expected to accelerate the implementation, and it is expected that the implementation strategy of affordable housing will gradually become clear, and most cities may focus on revitalizing the stock; the implementation rules for the transformation of urban villages are expected to be introduced one after another, and a number of projects will enter the implementation stage; the "dual-use of ordinary and emergency" may be combined with inefficient and idle infrastructure to achieve resource reuse according to local conditions.
National Business Daily