In this seemingly calm but in fact turbulent international political arena, Germany, which has always been regarded as the big brother of reason, has suddenly transformed into a man of action.
Just as the eyes of the whole world widened as the Russia-Ukraine conflict seemed to enter its final act, Germany no longer became an audience and became the protagonist, staging a drama of "take away your toys".
They directly confiscated the assets of the Bank of Russia in Germany, amounting to 5.5 billion yuan. This is inevitably reminiscent of the plots in those movies, the climax before the finale, where the villain finally reveals his true colors and no longer hides his greed and ambition.
And Russia, a chess player who has been on the chessboard for a long time on the international political chessboard, can not allow others to break ground on their own heads? They quickly counterattacked by announcing the confiscation of BASF's shares in the Siberian natural gas field, Germany's largest energy company.
This series of actions is like two naughty children snatching each other's most precious toys from each other, but this time the "toys" are priceless, which is related to the country's economy and face.
This big drama of asset confiscation not only made the eyes of government officials in the two countries roll, but also made the onlookers think: Is this an advanced version of bank robbery in the new era?
So, is this farce a unilateral and reckless act by Germany, or is it part of the new normal of international politics? Will this act of Germany set off a wave of imitation on the international stage and trigger a series of asset confiscation wars?
1. Changes in Germany
The political scene in today's world is sometimes even more exciting than Hollywood blockbusters. Germany, a country that has always been known for its rigor, has suddenly turned into a wild gambler.
What kind of courage and what kind of pressure did Germany make the bold move of confiscating Russian assets? This was not only politically aggressive, but also a great adventure to challenge international rules.
We have to admit that Germany did not suddenly lose its mind. Behind this act is a series of carefully calculated political tactics. From Germany's point of view, this asset confiscation drama is not just a direct counterattack against Russia on the Ukraine issue, but a demonstration of a long-term strategy.
On the chopping block of international pressure, the German government was forced to transform from a prudent neutral to a man of action. This change not only reassures the people's concerns about energy security internally, but also demonstrates Germany's determination and stance to its allies externally.
However, all this transformation has not come without a cost. Economic sanctions are a double-edged sword, weakening the enemy on the one hand, and hurting oneself on the other. The dependence of the German manufacturing industry on Russia is not a day or two, and the seizure of assets sounds like the good news of announcing a "salary increase for all employees", but in fact it may lead to "full rotation".
In other words, if you confiscate someone else's assets today, someone else might do something to your business tomorrow. It's not just about the economy, it's about Germany's credibility and image on the global stage.
In this battle for assets, Germany seems to have taken a shot in the arm, and is no longer the obedient model student who sits behind the negotiating table.
This series of changes has undoubtedly brought unprecedented challenges to Germany's domestic and foreign policy. The decision to confiscate assets is like quietly moving a chess piece on the chessboard of international politics and could trigger a chain reaction. Was Germany clever or sloppy?
Second, economic shock waves
While Germany's political scene seems to have been choreographed by Shakespeare, its economic scene is more like a farce built by Adam Smith and Keynes. In this farce, Germany's decision to confiscate Russian assets was not just a simple political statement, but the beginning of an economic game.
From cheese and beer on one side to oil and gas on the other, the stakes are staggering, and every move could lead to a new wave of economic shock. On the German side, the confiscation of Russian assets may look like a victory for economic justice in the short term, but behind this victory lies some less glamorous risks.
Germany's manufacturing giants may be in a cold sweat deep inside, after all, a large part of their business is sustained by a love affair with Russia. The confiscation of Russian assets sounds painful, but in fact it is like throwing a stone in the sea of the economy, will the waves stir up turn your ship upside down?
As a result, Germany's manufacturing giants may have to start looking for new dance partners to look around at the economic ballroom dance. Unfortunately, there was no shortage of dancers at this ball, but it was hard to find a suitable dance partner. At this time, it is not only a battle of economic theory, but also a contest of entrepreneurial strategies and a test of the wisdom of politicians.
Looking at the Russian side, it seems that it is also playing a game of "you can't play with the toys I have". They say "no" to the shares of Germany's largest energy company, which looks like an act of revenge by small children.
But let's not forget that this "little kid" has in his hands a "toy" like natural gas, which is not made of plastic, but the key to warming up the whole of Europe in winter. The move was both an economic retaliation and a demonstration to the world of Russia's continued influence in the energy sector.
This business "you come and go" is actually a showdown between the two economies on the huge chessboard of the global economy. Every action is not only for the current gains and losses, but also for the future layout.
This kind of game is like two gamblers battling wits at the table, and the onlookers around them are also pricking up their ears and staring at their eyes, for fear of missing any subtle changes. Under these circumstances, what can we foresee from this German operation?
3. Russia's response
Russia's response on the international stage can be compared to the plot of a Hollywood blockbuster, with high climaxes and sensational sound effects enough to make the audience sip popcorn while nervously clutching the armrest.
Germany's asset confiscation is like a movie hero who gives the villain a disgrace without warning, but the villain is not the kind of person who will take this easily. Russia's response was like saying, "Oh, you confiscate my assets?" well, let's see who has more pockets. ”
Russia's asset freezing and confiscation game is played quite 6, this is not some petty game of lots, this is a global economic version of "Game of Thrones".
Their response strategy is a bit like the player who gets fouled on the basketball court and pretends that nothing happened, staying calm on the surface, but actually planning how to get revenge in the next round.
Russia has retaliated by restricting energy supplies, a move that is chilling for Europe as if the heating suddenly ran out of heating in winter. This tactic not only sent the chill to the other side, but more importantly, it made all the countries that depend on Russian energy a little unable to sit still.
It's a trick-or-treating strategy, but the "sugar" here is natural gas, and trick-or-treating could make the whole of Europe sleep in a down jacket for the rest of the winter.
Russia is also looking for new economic allies, which is like being snubbed by an ex in a social situation and immediately turning around to find another dance partner to show its charm and independence.
In this case, Russia might look east, because there are big customers like China, whose energy needs are always saying, "Come on, more!" This diversion strategy is like telling Germany: "You are not the only fish, there are more fish in the sea." ”
This battle between freezing and confiscation makes one wonder if this is just the beginning. As this back-and-forth economic wrestling escalates, will we see more economic alliances restructured? Do these developments herald a major reshuffle in global economic relations?
epilogue
In this volatile world political arena, every asset freeze and confiscation is like drawing a new dividing line on the sandbox, making the map of international relations more colorful.
We have already seen how asset freezes and forfeitures have become an important pawn in modern international political disputes, and how this may affect the balance of power in the global economy.
Just as every move in a chess game changes the course of the game, these economic moves between countries are redefining the future of international relations. And, just as in a game of chess, the far-reaching effects of each move are often not immediately apparent, these moves in international relations can take years or even decades to reveal the full picture.
As the international community adapts to and responds to this emerging phenomenon, we can foresee that future international politics will rely more on wisdom and strategy than on a direct display of military or economic power.
Just as the end of a good movie often opens up the audience's imagination, the future of international relations also leaves a wide range of fields for the world and each of us to think and explore.
In this contest of international relations, each country is looking for its own position and advantages, trying to find the best survival strategy in the ever-changing rules.