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In this world, money is not everything, but no money is absolutely impossible.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and without the generous assistance of the West, Ukraine may not be able to hold out for a day. But by the end of 2023, a big trouble has come, and Western aid has bottomed out.
The landlord's family didn't have much food left. In the United States, the Republican Party is holding on to its purse strings and resolutely refuses to approve it, while in Europe, Hungary is resolutely trying to stop it.
Money, where does it come from?
The West had an idea and is brewing a big move.
Isn't there still a large amount of Russian assets frozen in the treasury of the West?
That's a huge amount of money, worth about $300 billion.
According to Western media, the Biden administration has privately agreed that the $300 billion in Russian assets will be used to aid Ukraine.
In this way, Ukraine gets aid, Russia loses assets, and the West does not have to pay for it themselves.
Three birds with one stone, perfect!
The New York Times revealed that finance ministers, central bank governors, and diplomats from Europe and the United States have been busy and actively negotiating about this money recently.
Biden has asked the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan to come up with a strategy by February 24, 2024, the second anniversary of the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Please note that this is Russia's national assets, such as foreign exchange reserves, and may not include the assets of Russian businesses and individuals.
Just a few days ago, the German judicial department took action to confiscate 720 million euros of assets of a Russian financial institution, which made Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov bitterly scolded the Germans as "thieves".
Now, then, it's not a thief's problem, it's a thief.
There is no doubt that if it did, it would be unprecedented.
A few dimensions.
The first is unprecedented, the West has seized so many foreign assets.
$300 billion, not a small amount of money, exceeds the GDP of many countries in the world.
Russia was really rich before.
I saw that the Western media reported that US officials were very surprised, surprised that there was going to be a war at that time, and that Putin did not withdraw so many assets from the West in advance.
Why?
It may be that they are afraid to send a signal that there is an imminent war, and give the West and Ukraine more preparations, or that this war happened too hastily.
More likely, Putin is careless, believing that no matter how violently the West reacts, it will not be able to seize Russian assets.
From this point of view, it is true that, as Putin admitted two days ago, he was sometimes "too naïve."
The second is unprecedented, the West has subverted all common sense.
An important reason for Putin's "naivety" is that he and many others believe that the West is rational, and it abides by the law and respects common sense.
You know, private property is sacrosanct, this is a maxim that Westerners have always talked about.
In addition, the wind can enter, the rain can enter, and the king cannot enter, which is also a classic case of property protection in the West.
But what about the reality?
Once Russia is determined to be a hostile country, regardless of whether your state assets, or corporate and personal assets, as long as they are Russian, they will all be seized.
Now, it is also ready to transfer these assets and give them to Ukraine as military expenses.
If the law does not allow it, the Americans have already hinted that the law will be changed.
What about the common sense of the West? It is estimated that Russia is a little confused.
The third is unprecedented, the Europeans are the super-wronged leaders.
Where are the more than 300 billion Russian assets?
There are not many in the United States, it is said that it is only a measly $5 billion.
It should be said that Putin is still psychologically prepared for the United States, so he should sell US Treasury bonds as soon as he wants.
Most of them are in the European Union countries, and a considerable part are in Switzerland.
If Russian assets are deprived, what does that mean?
It means that the United States has issued an order, and Europe must rush to the front and withstand the roar of Russia.
That is also for sure, Russia will retaliate violently, and will take the assets of European companies and European countries.
Alas, it was again the Europeans who silently took it all.
The fourth, unprecedented, could lead to an unprecedented crisis of financial credibility.
It's very simple, when you don't turn your face, it's Britney, and the United States and Europe welcome foreign assets; when you turn your face, it's Mrs. Niu, and the six relatives in the West will seize it if they don't recognize it.
Russian assets have suffered, how will other countries react?
Do the countries of the Middle East still feel safe? Do the countries of the East still feel safe?
Depositing money in the United States feels like a tiger's mouth.
I've seen some Americans worry that if that happens, "countries around the world will hesitate to keep their money in the New York Fed or whether they can hold it in dollars." ”
For the United States and Europe, it is true that it has gained a windfall, but the loss of credibility is also far-reaching.
ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that doing so could threaten Europe's financial stability and trigger a crisis of financial credibility.
And Switzerland, if Europe and the United States do this, do you follow or not?
If you don't follow, will the Americans let Switzerland go?
Is Switzerland still a safe haven for foreign assets?
But in the long run, if the West really runs out of money, it really can't rule out attacking Russian assets. Russia will definitely retaliate, and European countries and European businesses will also be out of luck.
The global financial order is also bound to undergo fundamental subversion. It also reminds other countries: be careful, be careful!