21st Century Business Herald reporter Luo Yiqi reported from Guangzhou
In late November 2023, Space X's Starship made its second attempt to launch this year, and unlike the previous attempts, 33 engines were already working normally after the takeoff, but in the end, the second-stage rocket failed to cut into orbit due to insufficient speed.
Judging by the results alone, the attempt failed again. However, as the founder, Musk expressed his approval for both launches during the year. "The sight of arriving on Mars one day inspires SpaceX to make every decision. Elon Musk's Biography describes its driving force and vision as follows.
In addition to the vision of deep space exploration, the development process of launch vehicles is an indispensable part of the development of the satellite Internet industry. To move towards the future of "space-space integration", the continuous formation of satellite constellations in the sky is the core, and by promoting the development of low-cost and recyclable launch vehicles, it is expected to accelerate the continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase of the process of driving satellites into space.
In addition to the exploration of Space X's alternative path, many domestic rocket companies have also made great progress in 2023, and there is a situation of state-owned and private companies blooming in multiple places. At the application level, terminal companies represented by Huawei are driving the implementation of mobile phone satellite communication functions, which is driving the closed-loop commercialization of the satellite Internet industry chain.
A big year for infrastructure development
Due to the limited orbit and frequency resources, under the unified management of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and in accordance with the international allocation rule of "first occupation and eternal gain", the world's major economies are promoting activities such as continuous satellite launches.
For example, Starlink has frequently sent low-orbit satellites to the sky this year, and more than 5,000 satellites have been in orbit so far. And a series of rockets such as Falcon 9, which can support Starlink's liftoff, are also in full swing.
Although the Falcon 9's exploration during the year ended in failure, more importantly, it has accumulated a lot of data for subsequent development, and for the industry, its design concept and subsequent development direction have brought positive impetus to the global commercial spaceflight.
Gong Huiwei, senior research director of Gartner, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "Looking back, when the Falcon 9 was launched for the first time, there was a certain situation in the 33 Raptor engines, and the transfer of control was not completely successful; He further pointed out that statistics show that the rocket carrying capacity of Space X is 88% of that of all countries in the world, which depends on the redesign and redefinition of the rocket by Starship, which can quickly adjust the design according to the previous shortcomings.
In addition to overseas leading companies, many domestic private rocket companies have also made great progress in 2023. Since 2020, when the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) first included satellite Internet in the category of "new infrastructure", rapid construction has started in this field. One view is that 2023 is a big year for the development of satellite Internet.
Among them, satellite manufacturing and satellite launch are the two key links in the industry chain, which are key to driving satellite design innovation and achieving better payload ratios, and supporting the rocket technology of satellite launch to move towards lower cost and recyclability. The mainland's related infrastructure software and hardware, operation and application implementation are actively exploring.
For example, in terms of satellites, Galaxy Aerospace completed the verification of the mainland's in-orbit multi-satellite stacked launch technology for the first time, providing technical support for the mainland's giant low-orbit communication constellation. In the field of rockets, the Suzaku No. 2 Yao-2 carrier rocket independently developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace has successfully completed the launch mission, which is the first liquid rocket officially entered mass production and commercial use in the mainland's private commercial aerospace, and it is also the world's first liquid oxygen methane rocket successfully put into orbit, which means that the mainland's first high-thrust liquid oxygen methane engine has passed flight verification.
Huatai Securities Research believes that the mainland opened up the private commercial space market in 2015, and until 2022, only a few solid rockets were successfully put into orbit. In 2023, a number of commercial rockets have made breakthroughs in transportation capacity and liquid engines, and rockets have significantly improved as the core bottleneck of the industry.
The importance of the breakthrough of liquid engine rockets is emphasized because this is an important route that can realize the recyclability of rockets, and recyclability is particularly important to reduce costs.
Gong Huiwei said that solid-fuel launch vehicles are relatively simple and flexible, and the earlier rockets in China use solid fuel; the current stage of the Long March series of rockets is the use of liquid fuel, different from the problem that solid fuel rockets cannot be recycled, the recovery of liquid fuel will greatly reduce the operating cost of rockets, and the lifting height and control ability of the two types of fuels are also different.
For different liquid engine routes, Zhao Qirui, an industrial analyst at the Toubao Research Institute, analyzed to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that due to the coking and carbon deposition problems of liquid oxygen kerosene after combustion, the actual reusability is limited, and liquid oxygen methane has greater advantages in this regard. Therefore, the cost advantage of methane is more obvious to achieve a recoverable launch under the same carrying capacity.
"From a long-term perspective, liquid oxygen methane is particularly suitable for future deep space exploration, manned lunar landings and Martian migration. In interstellar exploration, methane can be prepared by carbon dioxide cracking, but it is more difficult to prepare liquid oxygen kerosene, which requires the fuel needed for return before launch, which reduces efficiency. He concluded.
Drive commercialization
One of the driving forces behind the rapid development of infrastructure is the commercialization process. According to European consulting firm Euroconsult, 40% of SpaceX's revenue comes from Starlink, which is behind the rapid launch of satellites this year, and SpaceX is also actively exploring cooperation space with the satellite communication industry chain to drive the commercialization of satellite communications.
In the domestic market, as the mobile phone terminal companies represented by Huawei continue to iterate on the upgrading of mobile phone satellite communication capabilities, other leading domestic mobile phone manufacturers have also stated that they are preparing flagship mobile phones with relevant capabilities, which has become one of the steps to improve the commercial closed loop of the satellite Internet industry chain.
However, at this stage, the satellite communication function of domestic commercial mobile phones is mainly connected to high-orbit satellites, and its transmission capacity is relatively limited, including Starlink and many domestic late-developing satellite companies are rapidly promoting the launch and networking of low-orbit satellites.
"On the whole, China has entered a stage of rapid development in related fields. Zhao Qirui told reporters that at this stage, the commercial application of communications, navigation and remote sensing satellites has stimulated the launch demand of various industries for satellite constellations, and the low-orbit satellite Internet represented by the "satellite network project" has become the main demand of the current and future space launch market.
However, in order to move towards the future of satellite Internet with space-space integration, it is still necessary to continue to face problems such as improving constellation deployment and reducing satellite launch costs. Only after large-scale construction, cost reduction and efficiency increase can commercialization be better realized.
Orient Securities pointed out that in terms of satellite launches, there is still a gap between the current continental rocket launch quotation and the SpaceX Falcon 9, and the launch capacity cannot meet the needs of the rapid deployment of large-scale low-orbit constellations.
This points to the difficulty in the development of the current industrial chain: reducing costs and increasing the capacity of launch vehicles. To put it simply, if the rocket has a high capacity, it can drive more satellites into orbit at a time, which can greatly reduce the cost and time of satellite deployment.
"According to the statistical estimation of rocket capacity, the total rocket capacity of China for satellite launch in 2021 and 2022 will be about 140.4t/700km and 120.8t/700km respectively, which is far from the actual average annual demand. With the stimulus of increasing demand for satellite launches and the insufficient capacity of existing rockets, it is imperative to accelerate the propulsion of liquid rockets with high thrust. Zhao Qirui analyzed.
"Statistics show that the main gap between Continental and Space X, which ranks among the top three in the world in the field of commercial aerospace, and the leading capacity of the launch vehicle is the carrying capacity of the launch vehicle, of course, the gap with other major rocket-related institutions in the United States is not large. Gong Huiwei told reporters, "I personally think that China's commercial aerospace industry has developed from 2015 to the present, whether it is state-owned or private, there have been many bright spots, focusing on the field of rockets, the main gap is the difference in rocket design caused by different load capacity." However, with the support of demand, it will constitute a spark for the development of the aerospace industry on the mainland. ”
According to the statistics of Huatai Securities, during the year, from 0.3 tons of Galaxy Power's "Ceres-1" to 1.5 tons of GEO (geostationary orbit) of "Tianlong 2", to 4 tons (improved) of "Suzaku 2", and then to 6.5 tons of LEO (low earth orbit) of "Gravity 1", the record of the maximum capacity of mainland civilian carrier rockets has been constantly refreshed.
Although the capacity problem for launch vehicles is still catching up in China, it is actually a global challenge. Looking at the entire industry, Space X is relatively outstanding in terms of capacity, and latecomers are actively breaking through.
Embrace the unity of the sky and space
Innovation in the satellite itself is equally important in advancing the development of satellite Internet, which plays a decisive role in the functions that can be accessed by end users. At present, innovation focuses on the mass manufacturing capacity of satellites, optimizing satellite design from the perspective of new materials and antenna capabilities, reducing satellite weight and increasing payload.
Gong Huiwei told reporters that the most important requirement for the development of low-orbit satellites is the industrial chain. The breakthrough from 0 to 1 has been achieved in China, and the development from 1 to 100 will be relatively easy. Since the beginning of this year, more than 100 satellites have been launched by Changguang satellites in orbit, and a series of private enterprises, including Geely and Galaxy Aerospace, are actively promoting satellite launches, which means that the commercialization of the domestic satellite industry continues to evolve rapidly.
Minsheng Securities analysis pointed out that many domestic commercial aerospace enterprises have successfully developed mass production technology: Galaxy Aerospace has achieved the first batch development of low-orbit broadband communication satellites in China, and its single satellite development cost has dropped by more than half compared with the first satellite of Galaxy Aerospace; The design and manufacture of satellite mass production are realized by means of automated robots and automated test systems, and the construction of information systems.
From the perspective of long-term improvement of satellite networking deployment, Gong Huiwei believes that we can continue to pay attention to the evolution of the engine design and control capability of the launch vehicle, which will have a key impact on the payload, followed by the update and iteration of liquid fuel technology and the solution of fuel filling during rocket recovery.
"Personally, I think that in order to support a large number of satellite launches, especially the launch of relaunch satellites, it is very important to have launch vehicles with both solid and liquid fuel technology, and operational flexibility is also very important, such as the design flexibility of rocket launch sites. Gong Huiwei further analyzed that Starship is the product of flexible development, and its ability to iterate quickly in accepting failure is a manifestation of the development of the Internet concept.
Zhao Qirui stressed to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that rocket recycling is a technology iteration trend worthy of long-term attention. "Because when considering the launch cost, the cost of rocket propellant accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the overall hardware equipment of the rocket is the main source of cost. Therefore, the development of reusable launch vehicles is the best way to reduce the cost of launch. ”
According to his analysis, by recycling the rocket and reusing it after simple repairs, it is possible to avoid the waste caused by the need to discard expensive rocket bodies, engines and electrical equipment after one-time use, so as to share the cost through multiple uses. "According to data released by SpaceX, the launch cost can be reduced by 80% if the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket is successfully recovered and reused at low cost, and by 99% if the first and second stages are recovered at the same time and reused in a low-cost manner. ”
Under the background of continuous innovation drive on the key rocket side and satellite side, the mainland satellite Internet industry is in an accelerating situation.
Gong Huiwei told reporters that he agreed with the industry's statement that this year is the first year of satellite Internet development, because with the continuous investment of satellite companies, the industrialization of the supply chain system in satellite manufacturing supports the continuous development of the number of satellite launches, the number of satellites, and the number of enterprises. "In contrast, satellites are currently in the development stage from 1 to 100, and rockets are still in the process of going from 0 to 1. As for whether the development of the mainland's satellite industry can replicate the advantages of mobile phones, tablets and even manufacturing, it is worth looking forward to due to the mainland's strong industrial supply chain ecology and cross-industry grafting innovation capabilities. ”
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