Yesterday's A shares
Yesterday, the market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with the ChiNext index leading the rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index recovering from 2,900 points. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.65%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell nearly 7%. Overall, stocks rose more and fell less, and more than 3,500 stocks rose in the whole market. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 732.4 billion, an increase of 68.8 billion from the previous trading day.
In terms of sectors, BC batteries, beverage manufacturing, e-commerce, short dramas and other sectors were among the top gainers, while PEEK materials, auto parts, consumer electronics, shipping and other sectors were among the top decliners.
Overnight outer disk
The three major stock indexes of the New York stock market rose on the 21st. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 322.35 points, or 0.87%, from the previous session, at 37,404.35, the S&P 500 stock index was up 48.40 points, or 1.03%, at 4,746.75, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 185.92 points, or 1.26%, at 14,963.87.
The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board on the 21st. The British FTSE 100 index closed at 7694.73 points on the 21st, down 20.95 points, or 0.27%, from the previous trading day. The CAC 40 index of the Paris stock market closed at 7571.40 points on the 21st, down 12.03 points, or 0.16%, from the previous trading day. The DAX index of the German Frankfurt stock market fell 45.63 points, or 0.27%, to close at 16687.42 points on the 21st.
International oil prices fell on the 21st. By the end of the day, light crude futures for February 2024 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 33 cents, or 0.44%, to settle at $73.89 a barrel, and London Brent futures for February 2024 delivery fell 31 cents, or 0.39%, to settle at $79.39 a barrel.
Heavy information
1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In 2024, an action plan for future industrial development will be introduced to target industries such as humanoid robots and quantum information
According to the news of Gongxin Weibao, on December 21, the National Industrial and Information Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized that the cultivation of emerging industries will be accelerated in 2024. We will launch pilot projects for access and road access of intelligent networked vehicles, and promote the large-scale application of Beidou and the development of satellite Internet. Expand emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, biomedicine and high-end medical equipment, and safety emergency equipment, and create new growth points such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy. The action plan for future industrial development has been introduced, aiming at industries such as humanoid robots and quantum information, focusing on breakthroughs in key technologies, cultivating key products, and expanding scenario applications. Promote the high-quality development of the information and communication industry. Coordinate the work of "construction, use, and research", promote the large-scale deployment of 5G and gigabit optical networks, accelerate the deployment of intelligent computing facilities, and strengthen 6G pre-research. Innovate the supervision of the information and communication market, promote the construction and rectification of work style, and improve the emergency communication plan and command system. Promote the large-scale application of 5G, and issue guidance on the high-quality development of the industrial Internet. Carry out special actions to improve the protection of critical information infrastructure, and improve the level of data security management in the industry.
- Huabao Securities pointed out that humanoid robots cannot completely replace industrial robots (industrial robotic arms) and special robots, but they can replace traditional service robots to a large extent, and in the long run, they have a broader application space in unstructured scenarios. From the application route of humanoid robots, structured scenarios in the industrial field are expected to be prioritized, followed by commercial service scenarios.
- Minmetals Securities believes that the commercialization of humanoid robots requires specific scenarios. At present, the humanoid robot industry is facing challenges such as insufficient data, insufficient computing power, human-computer interaction security, and long-tail scenarios, and the ultimate general-purpose humanoid robot is still far away, but humanoid robots based on specific scenarios can reduce the dependence on data and computing power, and are expected to be the first to land.
2. A number of banks will reduce the listed interest rate of deposits from December 22
On December 21, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced that it would reduce the listed interest rate of deposits from December 22. It involves a number of deposit varieties such as call deposit, lump sum deposit and withdrawal. It is understood that a number of banks, including the China Construction Bank, the Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, and the Postal Savings Bank, will also adjust the interest rates on deposits from tomorrow. A number of national joint-stock banks will also follow suit. Since September last year, the deposit interest rates of various commercial banks have been lowered three times, and the last adjustment of large banks such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was on September 1 this year. (CCTV News)
- Guosheng Securities pointed out that compared with the relatively rigid cost of corporate deposits, the interest rate of personal deposits is more likely to fall with the listed price, and the reduction of long-term deposits is generally larger, and banks with a higher proportion of personal time deposits are expected to benefit more. From the perspective of the remaining maturity structure, deposits that mature sooner can be repriced more quickly, and dividends from lower interest rates will be reflected sooner.
3. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Next year, the city will implement policies and one city policy to achieve a balance between real estate supply and demand
At nine o'clock in the morning of December 21, the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development was held in Beijing, and Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, emphasized at the meeting: adhere to the principle of seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and do a good job in four major sectors and 18 aspects of work next year. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will work with the State Administration of Financial Supervision to guide real estate financing to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems, actively promote urban renewal actions, and do a good job in problem-oriented and goal-oriented work. Ni Hong pointed out that real estate has shifted from "whether it is available" to the era of "whether it is good or not", and a good house can only be imagined, but nothing can be done. Next year, we will select some cities and enterprises to pilot and grasp a number of good house models, and there are different good houses at different prices. "A lot of the work this year is groundbreaking, and it's hard to do. "The vitality of the policy lies in its implementation. Ni Hong said that greater efforts should be made to implement it, "if you move, you will be fast, and if you move, you will succeed." (China Real Estate News)
- Guolian Securities believes that the real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage in the short term, and with the gradual implementation of demand-side optimization policies in the future, the pressure on industry sales and investment is expected to ease. In the process of adjustment, the differentiation between enterprises within the industry has become increasingly obvious, and the advantageous enterprises have further widened the industry gap from the capital side and the investment side. Development enterprises that focus on first- and second-tier core cities, have obvious credit advantages, and outstanding comprehensive operation capabilities will be more competitive in the future.
4. From next year, the mainland will implement zero tariffs on some anti-cancer drugs and rare disease drugs
On December 21, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that the import and export tariffs of some commodities will be adjusted in 2024. From January 1, 2024, the mainland will implement a provisional import tax rate lower than the most-favored-nation rate for 1,010 goods. The first is to accelerate the innovation and development of advanced manufacturing industry, and reduce import tariffs on resources, key equipment and parts that are in short supply in China, such as lithium chloride, low-arsenic fluorite, and gas diffusion layers for fuel cells. The second is to protect people's lives and health, meet residents' consumption needs with high-quality supply, implement zero tariffs on drugs and raw materials for some anti-cancer drugs and rare disease drugs, and reduce import tariffs on formula foods for special medical purposes. The third is to reduce import tariffs on sweet corn, coriander and burdock seeds. In addition, in order to promote the development of the new material industry, the export tariffs on high-purity aluminum will be reduced. From January 1, 2024, according to the development of domestic industries and changes in supply and demand, within the scope of the mainland's accession to the World Trade Organization, the import tariffs on ethylene, propylene, and liquid crystal glass substrates below 6 generations will be raised.
5. The Passenger Association expects the retail sales of new energy vehicles to increase by more than 46% year-on-year in December, and institutions are optimistic that the sales volume of the auto market is expected to continue to grow at a high rate
On December 21, according to the news of the Passenger Car Association, the Passenger Car Association expects that the retail market of narrow passenger cars in December will be about 2.27 million units, an increase of 9.3% month-on-month and 4.8% year-on-year. Retail sales of new energy vehicles totaled about 940,000 units, up 11.8% m/m and 46.6% y/y, with a penetration rate of about 41.4%. The retail market of passenger cars in the narrow sense was about 21.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles were about 7.75 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, and the penetration rate was 35.8%, an increase of 8 percentage points over last year.
- Bank of China Securities believes that the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow at a high rate, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in related industrial chains. The sales volume of the auto market is rising steadily, and the revenue growth rate is expected to improve, but the profit growth rate is under pressure in the short term due to the price war of a large number of manufacturers. As the auto market continues to recover in the future, the growth rate of operating income and total profit of automobile companies is expected to grow.
Institutional Eyesight
- AVIC Securities: At present, when the interest rate gap between China and the United States has reached an inflection point, domestic and foreign investors still lack an optimistic consensus or mainly due to the weak repair of domestic economic data. In the next one or two quarters, the market may fluctuate slightly upward, out of the "spring sprout" market. Due to the lack of large external forces to stimulate demand, the pull on the profit side is weak, according to historical experience or more like the rebound market triggered by the natural repair of the inventory cycle in 2013 and early 2019, the room for emotional repair is limited. Based on the small winning rate of the policy game, but due to the market sentiment in the early stage has been fully vented and a number of listed companies have disclosed repurchase plans, the probability of the market continuing to bottom out is low, and it may fluctuate upward in the short term, but the index level rebound may have to wait until the middle of 24 years.
- Guangdong Kai Securities: In the context of insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations, the economy will continue to rebound next year, and it is still necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies. Since the fourth quarter, the fiscal policy has increased the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, and the monetary policy has smoothed the credit supply at the end of this year and early next year, which will help the economy achieve a "good start" next year and accelerate the pace of economic recovery.
Spotlight Announcements
Three Gorges New Materials: The actual controller was changed to Yichang State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission
CITS United: The company was suspected of violating laws and regulations in the disclosure of information and was filed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission
Excellence New Energy: A special working group has been set up to respond to the European Commission's anti-dumping investigation of Chinese biodiesel products
6 days and 5 board leading shares: the company's shares have the risk of overheating market sentiment and irrational speculation, and they are still in a state of loss in the first three quarters
5 even board Xingguang Agricultural Machinery: did not involve the concept of market hotspots, and the performance in the first three quarters was in a state of loss
4. Huiwei Technology: The company's production and operation have been normal recently, and there have been no major changes in the internal and external business environment
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