In November, civil aviation was particularly miserable!
Today, the Civil Aviation Authority of China released production data for November 2023.
To be honest, I was blown away by the November data.
Brother Yi anticipated the coldness of the civil aviation industry
I didn't expect to freeze three feet all at once!
Let's look at the data first.
Passenger traffic data is the most important, which can be seen from the demand for civil aviation travel.
1. Passenger traffic hit a new low in eight months
In November 2023, passenger traffic was 48.991 million, a decrease of 7.06 million from October.
It is normal for the off-season to be lower than in October.
It's just that, to be honest, this data surprised Brother Yi a little.
Previously, Brother Yi thought that no matter how weak the off-season was, there would be 50 million people.
However, it has dropped to less than 50 million, and it is 10 million fewer than 50 million.
The figure of 48.99 million has already hit its lowest level since April.
The following inverted V-shaped trend is a bit worrying.
If compared to the same period in 2019, November 2023 was 4.07 million fewer passengers than in November 2019.
In November, Spring Airlines carried 1.95 million passengers.
4 million passengers is more than the number of people transported by 2 spring and autumn airlines.
This is equivalent to the passenger traffic of 300 aircraft of a full-service airline.
November 2023 was also the month with the largest month-on-month year-on-year gap from 2019 since April.
Of course, judging from the absolute figure of 48.99 million people, it is not low.
The problem is, we have such a large population, we have such a large fleet.
Second, the performance of the two major indicators is colder
For the civil aviation industry, the performance of the two quality indicators of aircraft utilization rate and passenger load factor is particularly critical to measure whether the economy is booming or not.
November 2023, All Civil Airlines:
Aircraft utilization was 7.9 hours
Load factor77.5%
How are these two indicators performing?
If you have been paying attention to the production situation of the civil aviation industry and doing analysis and research, you should know
Many people are asking in the background why civil aviation stocks are not performing well
Brother Yi didn't know either
However, it is advisable to look at the data
3. Unexpected surprises: outstanding freight performance
However, the civil aviation industry in November still had a lot of surprises.
It is the outstanding performance of air cargo.
We know that November and December have always been the off-season for passenger traffic and the peak season for freight transportation.
How well these two months have performed is particularly important for the air cargo business.
Luckily, the air cargo data for November was impressive.
In November 2023, the volume of cargo and mail transportation was 719,000 tons, setting a record in the history of civil aviation.
It is not easy to know that this is not easy.
At present, the downward pressure on the economy is greater, and international trade is affected by multiple factors, which has brought great challenges to the civil aviation industry.
However, after a period of correction, the volume of civil aviation cargo and mail transportation has gradually improved.
In particular, the volume of international cargo and mail transportation reached 277,000 tons, which is also the best level in history.
The freight index is a better indicator of the dynamics of the economy than the passenger traffic index.
It can be seen from this that the mainland's economy is tending to improve.
However, because the civil aviation industry is more dependent on passenger transport, in November 2023, even if there is nearly 3 billion yuan of foreign exchange gains.
In the case of bleak passenger traffic, the loss of civil aviation in November is a foregone conclusion!
(Data from the official website of the Civil Aviation Administration)