It has been revealed that the trend of new real estate project launches in Bangkok and surrounding areas in 2024 could increase by 5-10%, while the transfer of ownership is likely to be similar to or not exceed 5% in 2023.
Depending on the growth scenario, the growth rate of the Thai economy in 2024, the buyer's debt-generating capacity, and the consideration of home loans from financial institutions. Mr. Praphansak Rakchaiwan, Managing Director of L.W.S. Wisdom and Solution Company Limited, revealed.
Mr. Praphansak predicted three scenarios: in the best-case scenario, the Thai economy grows by no less than 3.5-4%, which will lead to the launch of new projects. 110,000-115,000 units, worth 497,000-520,000 million baht, an increase of 5-10%. Under normal circumstances, Thailand's economy grows by 2.5-3%, leading to new product launches. 107,000-110,000 units, worth 481,000-497,000 million baht or an increase of 3-5%, in the worst-case scenario, the Thai economy grows below 2.5%,
The number of new launches will be reduced to close to 2023 or by no less than 5%.
Praphansak 先生
"New launches in 2023 are minus 5-8% compared to 2022, while value increases by 10-15%, with 103,000 units launched worth 457 billion baht, of which 52% of the newly launched units are residential. Residential and 48% are residential condominiums During the period of completion, ready for sale and under construction of 39 companies listed on the stock exchange, the amount was 663,188.48 million baht, an increase of 10.43%, which took 2 years and 6 months to settle. Mr. Praphansak said.
As for the risk factors that will have an impact on real estate in 2024, in addition to the fluctuations in the world economy and the Thai economy, there are 4 other risk factors that will have a direct impact on it:
- Interest rate. tends to remain high levels of financial costs affecting entrepreneurs and home buyers. This has led to an increase in project development and home purchase costs in 2024.
- According to the government's policy of 400 baht per day, the increase in the minimum wage, which affects the operating costs of entrepreneurs, is a factor that causes housing prices to rise.
- Prices of building materials tend to adjust. As energy prices rise, construction costs and housing prices will rise; Fourth, financial institutions should be strictly examined and approved for housing loans. This affects the purchasing power of the market, and by 2023, loan rejections will account for 60-65% of the total number of loan approvals.
"In 2024, the Bank of Thailand will remain strict in its monetary policy in considering loans from financial institutions. Due to the heavy burden of household debt and the proportion of non-performing debts or non-performing loans. The proportion of housing loan groups is still high, which will have a direct impact on the purchasing power of housing in the market, especially for homes priced below 3 million baht, while housing prices may be adjusted due to land prices, wages, building material prices and "interest rates are being adjusted." The body has become taller," Mr. Pravansak said.
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