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The last refined oil price adjustment window this year ended with a "downward adjustment". On December 19, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24 o'clock on December 19, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) will be reduced by 415 yuan and 400 yuan per ton respectively. So far, the retail price of domestic refined oil has achieved "six consecutive declines".
From the perspective of the whole year, the domestic refined oil has opened a total of 25 rounds of price adjustment windows, showing a pattern of "ten liters, twelve drops and three stranded". After offsetting each other, the cumulative reduction of standard gasoline and standard diesel was 50 yuan/ton, which was equivalent to the price increase of No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel were reduced by 0.04 yuan/liter. Among the 12 reductions in the retail price of refined oil products in China this year, this time the decline is the largest.
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission said that under the background of "OPEC+" production cuts are less than expected, the market's concerns about slowing economic growth and sluggish demand continue to rise, resulting in pressure on international oil prices. In addition, the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has once again lowered the growth rate of demand this year and next, while sharply cutting the average crude oil price forecast for next year by 12%. Speculative funds took the opportunity to sell long positions in crude oil, causing international oil prices to fall sharply.
-- From January to October 2023, China's gasoline production reached 1.36 billion tons
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's cumulative gasoline production in 2022 will reach 145.356 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.1%. As of October 2023, China's gasoline production was 14.084 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. Cumulatively, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to October 2023 reached 135.557 million tons, a cumulative increase of 10.2%.
Note: The cumulative output growth rate from January to February and March 2023 will be -4.8% and -3.9% respectively.
From January to October 2023, China's diesel production exceeded 180 million tons
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's cumulative diesel output in 2022 reached 191.257 million tons, a cumulative increase of 17.9%. As of October 2023, China's diesel output was 19.438 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In terms of accumulation, China's cumulative diesel output from January to October 2023 reached 180.985 million tons, a cumulative increase of 18.1%.
Note: The cumulative production growth rate in August 2023 is 22.8%.
The National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center predicts that in the short term, oil prices may fluctuate. On the one hand, the market's lack of confidence in the economic growth prospects will continue to put pressure on oil prices, and on the other hand, the recent attacks on oil tankers and other ships in the Red Sea and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will curb the downside of oil prices.
The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 3, 2024. Li Yan, an analyst of refined oil products at Longzhong Information, believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show an upward trend at the beginning. At present, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries are still firmly promoting production cuts, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is nearing the end, market confidence has been restored, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment is more probable.
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