21st Century Business Herald reporter Du Qiaomei reported from Huzhou and Beijing
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the slowdown in downstream demand growth and insufficient orders, the capacity utilization rate of power batteries has declined. At the same time, with the acceleration of the pace of battery manufacturing by automobile companies such as Changan Automobile, GAC Aion, and Zeekr Automobile, the problem of structural overcapacity of power batteries is still intensifying.
On December 11, the monthly data of power and energy storage batteries released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in November, the total output of power and energy storage batteries in mainland was 87.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%. From January to November this year, the total cumulative output of power and energy storage batteries in mainland China was 698.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 41.6%.
In terms of installed capacity, the installed capacity of continental power batteries in November was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%. From January to November, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in mainland China was 339.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%.
Although the growth rate of installed capacity is more than 30%, the power battery market in 2023 is not as expected due to the mismatch with the current demand caused by the expansion of the power battery industry in previous years.
"The new energy field has changed from a lack of electricity, lack of electricity, and expensive electricity in the past to a rapid transformation into overcapacity this year. In June this year, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, predicted that by 2025, China's power battery production capacity is expected to be 1,000GWh, and the current industry's production capacity has reached 4,800GWh, with serious overcapacity.
Especially with the price war in the terminal market, the pressure on car companies to reduce costs is also shifting to power battery companies, and the "knockout game" of the power battery industry has gradually kicked off.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in November, a total of 37 power battery companies in the mainland new energy vehicle market achieved loading support, a decrease of 5 over the same period last year, and from January to November, a total of 49 power battery companies in the mainland new energy vehicle market realized loading support, a decrease of 7 over the same period last year.
"In 2024, the whole market will face a lot of structural problems. The CEOs of the vast majority of listed companies have mentioned that 'increasing revenue does not increase profits', sales volume has increased, and income has declined. The industry-wide 'volume' has led to a rapid decline in (product) prices, although it can allow the market to expand rapidly, but it has brought great challenges to business operations in a short period of time. On December 12, Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of SVOLT Energy, said at the 4th SVOLT Energy Battery Day.
Yang Hongxin predicts that in 2024, the capacity utilization rate of lithium batteries will only be 46%, and the capacity utilization rate of the four main materials will be 60%.
"In 2024, the structural contradiction between supply and demand in the entire industry is still very prominent, and the industry will begin to enter a reshuffle period. In Yang Hongxin's view, in 2024, both battery production capacity and production capacity of major materials will be significantly surplus, and the demand side will have a relatively obvious decline in the first quarter of 2024, but it will still resume rapid growth from the second quarter.
Cyclical adjustment of the power battery industry
Since the beginning of this year, the price war in the terminal market of new energy vehicles has been transmitted to the whole industry chain, especially the power battery industry, which is the core component of new energy vehicles, carries greater cost pressure.
"Vehicle companies are under relatively large cost pressure, not this price, consumers will not accept. (Vehicle companies) want to sell more than 10,000 per month, but can only sell at this price, so the cost is very high. Vehicle companies are facing huge cost challenges, and all components such as batteries, electrodes, and electronic controls must also bear this challenge, and the challenges of batteries may be greater because of the large value. Previously, Yang Hongxin said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
"Unlike other parts, the cost is reduced by 50%, and it is reduced by 50 yuan. (Battery companies) drop a little bit, the price will drop a lot. So there is a lot of pressure on battery companies. Yang Hongxin revealed that in 2023, the price of power batteries will fall by 40%, and the price of iron-lithium energy storage cells will drop by 49%. In the future, the price of power batteries will continue to decline.
Yang Hongxin combined with Bloomberg, Gaogong Lithium Battery, and Xinchun Lithium Battery, three independent companies, predicted that the price of battery packs will drop from 0.76 yuan/Wh in 2023 to about 0.4 yuan/Wh in 2030.
Among them, combined with the price of battery cells and materials in 2024, Yang Hongxin speculated that the price of ternary power batteries will be about 0.5-0.52 yuan/Wh, and the price of iron-lithium energy storage batteries will be 0.35-0.38 yuan/Wh.
In the face of the rapid decline in power battery prices, cost reduction has also become a must-answer question for power battery companies.
"In 2023, more than 60% of SVOLT's production lines will be new production lines + new products + new processes, so the manufacturing cost is very high. In 2024, we will fully enter the stage of stable production and operation, so the goal is to reduce manufacturing costs by 40%. At the same time, procurement costs + technology will be reduced by 20%. Yang Hongxin said, "Last week, I also put forward requirements to some core suppliers, in 2024, I hope that the cost reduction of raw material procurement will reach 15%-20%, this pressure is very huge, but we need to find a way to solve it together, otherwise it will be difficult to survive in the industry competition." ”
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first 11 months of this year, the installed capacity of Honeycomb Energy was 7.18GWh, ranking seventh in the industry.
"We're not really happy with that number. Yang Hongxin said frankly, "In the field of PHEV, SVOLT ranked third in the industry in October, and in the field of ternary batteries, it also entered the top five." Therefore, finding the right market segment, finding the hot model, and finding the big single product is the direction of SVOLT Energy's key efforts. ”
Yang Hongxin believes that the global new energy market penetration rate is still growing rapidly. Although China's share of global new energy may drop from 57.8% to about 44% in the future, it is still a fast-growing market.
Especially in the PHEV (including range extender) market, the agency predicts that the share of PHEV in new energy vehicle sales is expected to be close to 50% in the next three years.
"In the era of the same price of gasoline and electricity, PHEVs will become the main force to subvert fuel vehicles. The 50% share of PHEVs is an exciting statistic, but we still face many challenges. Yang Hongxin said, "In a year like 2023, the industry will enter a cyclical adjustment. SVOLT's main strategy is to respond with new product routes and open up the market with a global short knife. ”
Thanks to the explosion of China's PHEV and range extension market in 2023, SVOLT has launched 40 models with 40 models, with a total shipment of 13GWh.
Facing the comprehensive electrification upgrade of the demand side after 2024 and the phased surplus challenge of the supply side, SVOLT released the "Leading Bee 2024" strategy on the battery day of the same day, launching the "global short knife, comprehensive evolution" strategy for different market segments of BEV, PHEV, commercial vehicles and energy storage, and launched the world's first full-range short knife fast charging iterative upgrade product in the passenger car field, covering 2.2C to 5C full-scenario applications.
The battery product is a global short knife, betting on fast charging technology
"In 2021, SVOLT Energy put forward the strategy of global short knife, and it will be fully implemented in 2023. Yang Hongxin told reporters, "GAC Inpai Battery released is a short-knife laminated battery. In 2023 and 2024, more and more battery companies will shift their technical route from traditional prismatic expansion packages to laminated cells. ”
It is understood that on December 12, GAC Aion's Inpai Battery Intelligent Ecological Factory (hereinafter referred to as "Inpai Battery Factory") was officially completed and put into production, and the latest product of the magazine battery 2.0 series, P58 microcrystalline super energy cell, was officially rolled off the assembly line, which will be the first to be installed on Haobo models.
"Short knife cells can achieve a higher volume utilization, L400 volume utilization can reach 58%-62%, and L600 can be improved by 10% to 20% compared with L400. Yang Hongxin said.
At the same time, in terms of consumer demand, the consumer pain point in the new stage of electrification is shifting from range anxiety to energy replenishment anxiety, and fast charging has become a rigid demand in the market.
On the evening of December 14, ZEEKR released a new self-developed 800V lithium iron phosphate ultra-fast rechargeable battery - Golden Brick Battery, with a maximum charging power of 500 kW and a maximum charging rate of 4.5C, and a range of more than 500 km in 15 minutes of charging in the 10%~80% fast charging range.
"2023 will be the first year of 800V, and by 2028, 800V will likely account for 37% of the BEV market, which is a very high proportion. At the same time, 400V and 800V will also coexist, and 800V will first be applied to B-class and above vehicles, and then gradually spread downward to A-class cars. Yang Hongxin said, "The combination of short knife and fast charging can better solve the performance requirements of plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles for batteries." ”
Under the trend of high voltage of pure electric vehicles, Yang Hongxin believes that the cell capacity will evolve to 100-150Ah, and the short-knife fast-charging battery of Honeycomb Energy has a higher volume utilization rate than the traditional size, and also performs better in terms of circularity and safety performance, and also has strong compatibility and adaptability, which is more suitable for CTC design.
According to reports, in the field of BEV, SVOLT has launched two specifications of L400 and L600 LFP short knife fast charging cores, with capacities of 105Ah, 130Ah and 133Ah respectively, which can achieve a charging rate of up to 4C.
According to the plan, the L600-based short-knife fast charging core will cover 3-4C scenarios and is expected to be mass-produced in Q3 of 2024, and the L400-based short-knife ultra-fast charging core will cover 4C and higher rate scenarios to meet the mainstream 800V high-voltage models in the market and will be mass-produced in Q4 of 2024.
According to the PHEV market's trends such as large power and long battery life, rising pure electric usage, and increasing demand for charging convenience, SVOLT released the "second-generation hybrid battery", which upgraded the 62Ah, 90Ah, and 117Ah systems for the PHEV market to 2.2C fast charging, and launched a hybrid iron-lithium short-knife fast charging core with a range of over 300KM for the PHEV market. The ultra-350KM endurance hybrid ternary short-knife fast charging core and 800V-3C hybrid fast charging core meet the needs of B-class, C-class SUVs and MPV hybrid models with 45KWh-65KWh configuration.
In the commercial vehicle track, SVOLT adopted the strategy of commercial and passenger sharing and commercial storage sharing, launched the world's first commercial and passenger shared short knife battery and the world's first commercial vehicle short knife standard box, and based on the short knife battery cell of commercial vehicles, launched the world's first commercial storage integrated battery pack - Basalt; 660Ah energy storage cells and the world's first 6Mwh-20 foot container.
In terms of cutting-edge technology layout, SVOLT has released the world's first 350KM+ endurance short-knife sodium-ion battery and the world's first short-knife energy storage sodium-ion battery, and the world's first prismatic semi-solid-state battery, the second-generation jelly battery, has completed the development of A-sample.
It is worth mentioning that as the competition in the domestic power battery market has entered a white-hot stage, further efforts to develop overseas markets have become the focus of the strategic planning of power battery enterprises.
At present, CATL's German plant has been put into operation in December 2022, and a Hungarian plant will also be built. In addition, Sunwoda and EVE are also building factories in Europe.
According to Yang Hongxin, the main office building structure of SVOLT Germany's H plant has been completed and is expected to be put into use in the first quarter of 2024. The first battery pack at Hive's Thailand plant will roll off the assembly line on the 20th of this month and be officially delivered in February 2024, and will supply battery products for PHEVs, HEVs and pure electric vehicles of Great Wall Motor and Hezhong Automobile in the future.
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