The event catalyzed, and the transportation ETF rose against the market
Edited by: Xiao Ruidong
On December 18, the market fluctuated and fell throughout the day, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both hit new lows in the year. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.13%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.54%. The turnover of the two cities throughout the day was 709.15 billion yuan, and the volume continued to shrink. Northbound funds actually bought 2.727 billion yuan on a net basis throughout the day. In terms of sectors, shipping, logistics, auto parts, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors were among the top gainers, while education, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, photovoltaic and other sectors performed sluggishly.
Source: Wind
The Transport sector became one of the few sectors that rose against the market on December 18, with the Transport ETF (561320) closing up 0.24%, mainly due to the catalyst of the event.
Source: Wind
Recently, a number of domestic listed airlines have disclosed the latest monthly consolidated operating data. In November, the leading airlines continued to increase year-on-year in major indicators such as capacity investment and passenger turnover. The three major state-owned airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China, increased their passenger capacity (in terms of available seat kilometers) by 253.35%, 271.05% and 279.1% year-on-year respectively.
On the demand side, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China all doubled their passenger turnover (in terms of revenue passenger kilometers) in November, with year-on-year increases of 324.97%, 334.52% and 348.6% respectively. With the accelerated return of international passenger traffic in the future, domestic airlines' international routes will gradually recover, and the performance of airlines and airports is expected to rebound.
The CSI Mainland Transport Theme Index tracked by the Transportation ETF (561320) covers leading companies in various fields such as shipping, logistics, aviation, railways and highways, covering a wide range of companies. Therefore, you can consider using the Jiaoyun ETF (561320) to grasp the catalysis of short-term events in the industry, as well as investment opportunities under the medium- and long-term macroeconomic recovery.
In addition, under the low market level, we are still optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector. Last week, the National Health Insurance Administration released the "National Basic Medical Insurance, Work-related Injury Insurance and Maternity Insurance Drug Catalogue (2023)". A total of 126 new drugs have been added to the catalogue. After this adjustment, the total number of drugs in the catalogue will increase to 3,088, including 1,698 Western medicines and 1,390 Chinese patent medicines.
In terms of the success rate and price reduction of innovative drugs included in medical insurance, a total of 25 innovative drugs will participate in the negotiation in 2023, and 23 will be negotiated, with a success rate of 92%, which is 7.4 percentage points higher than the overall level, and the average price reduction is 4.4 percentage points lower. Through negotiations, the price of innovative drugs has become more reasonable, and the affordability of patients has been greatly improved, and most of them have seen a significant increase in sales volume and sales.
In the renewal stage after the innovative drugs are included in the medical insurance catalog, according to the 2023 adjusted renewal rules, 70% of the 100 renewed drugs can be renewed at the original price, 31 varieties need to be reduced due to sales exceeding expectations, etc., with an average reduction of only 6.7%, while 18 of the 100 renewed drugs have added new indications, and only 1 has triggered the price reduction mechanism.
The overall procedure of medical insurance negotiation tends to be reasonable and scientific, and the inclusion of innovative drugs is clearly tilted. In terms of the three quarterly reports of the pharmaceutical sector, the performance is relatively stable, and the index valuation has a large room for upward repair, and the current layout is cost-effective, and it can continue to pay attention to biomedical ETFs (512290), medical ETFs (159828), vaccine ETFs (159643), and innovative drugs Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong ETFs (517110) and other targets.
The chip sector ushered in a pullback on December 18 with the decline of the broader market, with chip ETF (512760) and semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) falling 1.54% and 1.78% respectively, close to the lows of the past one year.
On the news side, Intel held an "AI Everywhere" conference on December 14, US time, and launched a new AI product portfolio that includes data center, cloud and edge PC.
According to TechInsights, global laptop shipments have declined for eight consecutive quarters and are expected to be down 27% in 2023 compared to 2021. However, factors such as the growth of AI PCs and the wave of upgrades to PCs purchased during the pandemic are expected to drive laptop shipments in 2024 to increase by 11% compared to 2023.
Source: Wind, TechInsights, Ping An Securities Research Institute
According to WSTS's forecast, global semiconductor sales will resume growth in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1% to $588.4 billion. Growth will be positive across all regions and product lines, with storage growth expected to be particularly significant, with an expected growth of 44.8%. At the same time, DRAM and NAND Flash prices are expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, based on the October revenue data of Taiwan stocks, IC manufacturing and design revenue both increased month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate turned positive for the first time in nearly a year.
Source: Wind
Nowadays, the development of AI PC is in full swing, and the PC market is gradually recovering as the inventory is gradually cleared and the decline in global PC shipments has narrowed month-on-month and year-on-year. From a medium and long-term perspective, the promotion of AI to the computing industry chain will continue, and the independent and controllable process of the domestic semiconductor industry chain is also accelerating. At present, the semiconductor industry is in the stage of cyclical bottoming, and we can continue to pay attention to the bottom layout opportunities of chip ETF (512760) and semiconductor equipment ETF (159516).
The military ETF (512660) fell 2% on December 18, with a large pullback. On the news side, last Thursday, the mainland successfully launched a reusable test spacecraft using the Long March-2F carrier rocket at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The successful launch of this reusable test spacecraft marks an important progress in the mainland's space technology.
Looking forward to the market outlook, from the perspective of product cycle, the follow-up equipment procurement is expected to gradually become clear, and the supply of new quality and new domain equipment will be improved. In terms of production capacity cycle, the reform of state-owned enterprises has continued to deepen, and the momentum of corporate profit release has ushered in an upward inflection point. From the perspective of inventory cycle, a new round of inventory replenishment cycle is expected to come gradually. The triple cycle resonates, the prosperity trend is improving, and the certainty of the improvement of the prosperity is gradually increasing.
From the valuation side, after half a year of adjustment, the current valuation of the CSI Military Index is at a historically low position, and there is a lot of room for upward repair. With the gradual emergence of the inflection point of the plate's prosperity, the allocation value is gradually highlighted. Interested partners can pay attention to the current low valuation and good prosperity layout opportunities of military ETF (512660).
Source: Wind
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National Business Daily