Interpretation of important meetings at the end of the year, prediction of wealth opportunities in 2024

In 2023, we have experienced early optimism and hesitation in the second half of the year, but now, all the good and the bad will become history.

And most importantly, what opportunities do we have in 2024?

Looking ahead to 2024, there are at least a few welcome changes:

First, the Fed's rate hike process is likely to have ended. Since the Fed launched the current interest rate hike cycle in March 2022, the cumulative rate hike has reached 525 basis points, but the just-concluded December interest rate decision hints that

This rate hike cycle has come to an end.

At this meeting, 6 of the 19 members of the FOMC believe that the level of the federal funds rate may fall to 4.5% to 4.75% next year, 5 expect the rate to fall to 4.75% to 5%, and only 2 believe that the rate will remain at the current level next year. According to the above, at a rate of 25 basis points per cut, the Fed may cut rates by up to three times next year.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also said at a press conference after the meeting that the current federal funds rate "may be close to the peak of the current tightening cycle", and Fed officials at the meeting generally agreed that "further rate hikes are unlikely to be appropriate", but did not want to rule out this possibility. If the economy develops as expected, the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is expected to be 4.6% by the end of 2024,

The intention of cutting interest rates is already clear.

The inflection point in US dollar liquidity has returned.

Secondly, on the domestic side, under the theme of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking, it is expected to be in 2024

The policy of stabilizing growth will be further strengthened

High-quality development will become the top priority, and the support for the real estate chain will also be further improved, and monetary policy may be further relaxed.

It's just that in the complex market environment, it is not destined to be a total win, whether it is the domestic market in 2024 or the American market, we are eager for someone to find a main line for us in 2024, so that we have a guide and direction.

Therefore, at 7 o'clock this evening, in the live broadcast room of Pozhu, we solemnly invited Teacher Tan Yaling to bring you to:

Interpretation of important meetings at the end of the year, prediction of wealth opportunities in 2024

Share the outline:

1. What message was conveyed by the convening of important meetings?

2. What will be the trend of RMB and JPY at the end of the year?

3. Is the Fed really going to start cutting interest rates next year?

4. Crude oil fell sharply and gold rose sharply, how to interpret the market outlook

5. The U.S. stock market hit a new high, can it still rise next year?

Tan Yaling is the president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute and an independent economist.

He used to be a senior analyst and researcher in the Global Financial Market Department of Bank of China. At the same time, he is an adjunct professor at Peking University, Tsinghua University, and Central University of Finance and Economics, specializing in macroeconomic analysis, and has an in-depth understanding and unique insights into the analysis of plate tracks and market hotspots.

He has been deeply involved in the field of international finance for many years, and has a deep understanding and precipitation of the financial market.

In terms of commodity research, he is good at grasping the general direction of the market and the mainstream sectors, and has unique insights and expectation analysis capabilities for the gold commodity futures market.

Have your own, unique and relatively accurate prediction judgment of exchange rate trends.

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