CITIC Securities: Clearing is accelerating, and the inflection point is approaching
The market's expectations for the economy relative to the policy objectives have a large upward revision space, the external macro environment is more moderate, A-shares in the short term by the investor mentality and capital behavior of the influence, desensitization to positive policy changes, the market clearing process is slow, as the adjustment is close to the extreme value area, the end of the year and the beginning of the year The inflection point of the market and confidence will be approaching, actively grasp the market situation after the phased clearance of the selling order, and continue to increase the allocation of technology and pharmaceutical sectors by taking advantage of the market fluctuations at the low point of sentiment.
On the one hand, from the perspective of the policy and macro environment, the Central Economic Work Conference has set a positive tone and put forward practical solutions to the problems; the potential policy targets are higher; the Federal Reserve has recently released dovish signals, and the decline in US bond interest rates is conducive to the return of funds to non-US dollar assets. On the other hand, from the perspective of the A-share market ecology, the recent divergence with the trend of Hong Kong stocks shows that the weakness of A-shares is not a problem of policy less than expected, the lack of money-making effect for two consecutive years has led to the disappearance of investors' patience, the redemption pressure at the end of the year has increased, and the position and position structure of institutional investors have not fully reflected the negative sentiment, and the market clearing process is slow. We expect that the market selling pressure is about to clear, and the end of the year and the beginning of the year are expected to usher in an inflection point.
CICC: Pay attention to policy responses, and the market outlook is not pessimistic
The Central Economic Work Conference further emphasized that "to promote stability, first establish and then break", stated that "more policies conducive to stabilizing expectations, steady growth, and stable employment", "seize all favorable opportunities, take advantage of all favorable conditions, and do as soon as possible, do more if you can, and strive to respond to the uncertainty of changes in the situation with the certainty of your own work", and the follow-up policy implementation and response are expected to gradually improve the current investor expectations. In addition, the demand-side policies of real estate in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shanghai have been further optimized recently, and real estate-related policies have been actively strengthened.
Reiterating that the downside risk of the current position is very limited, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent market performance, and the medium-term opportunities in the A-share market still outweigh the risks. In terms of allocation, combined with the current macro environment and liquidity factors, we believe that the A-share small-cap style is expected to continue to dominate, but we need to pay attention to the degree of valuation differentiation of the small-cap style.
Guotai Junan Securities: Stocks with low-risk characteristics are still the focus
Looking ahead, we believe that: 1) recent economic data such as industrial production, social finance, M1, and inflation have yet to recover, and the inflection point has not yet appeared. The next two months will be the traditional seasonal off-season for the economy, and market growth expectations are insufficient, and strong policies and measures are urgently needed to boost confidence. 2) The decline in U.S. bond interest rates and the appreciation of the renminbi have not promoted the decline in the risk-free interest rate of the stock market, and investors' willingness to hold monetary assets is high. 3) The overall risk appetite of the market is conservative, and the willingness to participate in risks is not high. In our view, the current investment direction is still in the equity and fixed income markets with low-risk characteristics.
Sector comparison: Focus on stocks with low risk characteristics, with a focus on low valuations and stable cash flows. At this stage, the thinking and strategy of cyclical understanding and value discovery are still difficult to work, and the choice of stock style and individual stocks is not in numerator profitability, but in valuation and risk premium. Due to the lack of new expectations, the current focus of stock selection is on stocks with low-risk characteristics, with a focus on low valuations and stable cash flows. Recommended: 1) Dividends, high dividends and resources: power & utilities/operators/highways/coking coal, etc.;2) Margins of safety, lowest valuations in 10 years, solid competitive advantages, and cost-effective consumption: food/dairy. In addition, in addition to large-cap value stocks, the medium-term is bullish on electronics/pharmaceuticals that benefit from improving global financial conditions and a gradual recovery in industry cycles.
Haitong Securities: At present, A-shares are cost-effective, and Baima will grow better next year
At present, A-shares are cost-effective, and next year's macroeconomic recovery will promote a moderate recovery in corporate earnings, which is expected to support the moderate recovery of the market. From the perspective of amplitude, it is currently at a historical low, and historical experience shows that the amplitude is likely to be amplified next year, which means that the market implies the possibility of surprises. Rational deduction, next year, the growth of Baima will be better, such as hard technology and medicine. If there is a surprise in the market, the industry may come from the financial weighted sector, and pay attention to policy catalysis.
SDIC Securities: It is advisable to replace "bear heart" with "bull gall"
In the case of a weak recovery of the internal economy (real estate liquidity to prevent risks, and the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds to hold the bottom line of growth) is clear, and after the long-end U.S. bond yields in the external environment are likely to peak and fall back in stages (after easing expectations, they will not enter the recession expectation pricing so quickly), the rebound of A-shares from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019 can continue to be tracked, and it is recommended to replace the "bear heart" with "bull bile".
Short-term overweight industries: technology stocks and U.S. stock mapping (TMT + medicine + humanoid robots), global competitiveness of industries (robot parts, auto parts, innovative drugs, optical modules, white goods, textile and clothing, cross-border e-commerce, intelligent logistics), high dividends (energy, electricity, home appliances and operators, publishing), consumption replacement (smartphones, prefabricated dishes, frozen food, smart homes, zero-sugar drinks). Index investment focuses on the STAR 100 Index.
China Merchants Securities: Scientific and technological innovation has become the most important direction of policy support
The communiqué of the Central Economic Work Conference has important guidance for the selection of industry structure next year, and scientific and technological innovation has become the most important direction of policy support; Judging from the recent changes in macro variables, the Fed will be easing next year, and the marginal improvement of external demand is a high probability event; therefore, the layout of "scientific and technological innovation + export" and "scientific and technological innovation + ToG" has become an important clue for the industry layout next year.
From the perspective of the direction of global demand improvement next year, semiconductors and consumer electronics, industrial metals, home appliances, automobiles and parts are the areas where domestic and foreign demand marginal improvement has improved recently and exports are expected to continue to improve next year.
Shenwan Hongyuan: Short-term A-shares are still in a period of accumulation, waiting for the next policy catalytic window
Shenwan Hongyuan said that waiting for the next policy catalytic window, at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the annual asset allocation adjustment of foreign capital may further release the pressure of outflow in early 2024, and the short-term A-shares are still in a period of accumulation. The first quarter of 2024 may be a superimposed window for multiple important meetings, and stable growth and reform policies are expected to be implemented in a concentrated manner, which may become a clue for an effective rebound in A-shares.
GF Securities: Layout of growth and recovery assets that are restless in the spring and optimize the supply and demand pattern
The short-term convergence of interest rate differentials between China and the United States will bring Chinese stocks to set sail. Recently, there has been a certain pullback in Chinese stocks under the weak economic and policy expectations, but after the two major conferences, the policy uncertainty has landed, and "promoting stability with progress, first establishing and then breaking" is expected to lead to marginal improvement in market expectations. The Sino-US policy resonates at the bottom, and actively lays out the spring restless market of A-shares, and the growth and recovery assets will still prevail under the weak expectation of the molecular end.
At the bottom of the Sino-US policy, it is recommended to observe the marginal improvement of demand along the three "supply side" clues, and configure: 1) the growth and recovery varieties of supply clearance + marginal demand recovery (consumer electronics chain, semiconductor design, innovative drugs, robots); 2) China's advantageous manufacturing + the United States is expected to replenish the inventory to boost external demand (textiles, chemical raw materials, electronic components); 3) "pan-AI + Huawei" a new round of technology supply to create demand (intelligent driving, XR, radio frequency, satellite communications).
Huaan Securities: Confidence needs to be boosted, and the style will be turned into finance
Looking ahead, external risk appetite has been boosted, while internal investors' confidence in the economy and policies has yet to be restored, and the market upward momentum is weak, but there is no need to worry about a sharp market correction without external risk suppression, so the overall market is expected to remain volatile. On the one hand, the Central Economic Work Conference set a stable tone, emphasizing that fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, requiring more policies conducive to stable growth, while the current market policy expectations are generally pessimistic, and internal risk appetite still needs to be boosted. On the other hand, the overall economic data in November was weaker than expected, and the economy is still a slow recovery trend and expectations have not changed. Finally, the Fed's December interest rate meeting released a strong dovish signal, and external risk appetite was boosted. The subsequent upward momentum in the market may require an opportunity for policy implementation to exceed expectations or economic data to repair beyond expectations.
In terms of follow-up allocation, the changes that need to be taken into account are that the revision of market expectations after the tone of the important meeting is landed, and the final ranking test of public funds near the end of the year may become an important catalyst for the change of market style in the short term. Current data shows a weak economic recovery, and liquidity is expected to remain "tailwind", which will be good for growth and financial style. However, the current growth is volatile, and there is a peak characteristic of branch diffusion (especially in the recent hot media industry), and TMT has risen significantly since the beginning of November, which may be a sign that the market has peaked, so from a short-term perspective, the market style may be switching, and we think that finance is a good direction. In addition, the medium- to long-term certainty direction can also be maintained.
Founder Securities: The downward space has been extremely limited, and we are firmly optimistic about the growth style of science and technology
Whether it is the current structural market or the industry preference in 2024, technology and growth will be the next main theme, and we are firmly optimistic about the dominance of the technology growth style. When the systemic market is facing the trough cycle, we must not only pay attention to short-term risks, but also maintain firm confidence in the long-term future.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Heng
Proofreading: Ran Yanqing