In recent days, everyone has personally felt the weather, and the cooling has been obvious in both the south and the north. For example, in addition to this cold wave, around December 18 and 24, two strong cold air will also move south.
In this regard, some netizens said: "Didn't you say that this year is a warm winter? Why is it not warm this winter?"
The reason why netizens have such questions is because experts from the China Meteorological Administration previously believed that it was possible that most parts of the mainland would be warmer in winter from December to February. The explanation given is that it is determined based on the development of El Niño, and it is believed that the East Asian winter monsoon tends to be weak in the context of El Niño, and this winter will tend to be warmer this year.
The so-called "El Niño" is a phenomenon that occurs over a wide range of equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean with abnormal sea surface temperature increases. Usually El Niño occurs every 2-7 years, lasts 9-12 months each time, and can last more than 2 years.
The impact of El Niño on the continent is manifold. First, El Niño will lead to higher winter temperatures on the continent, increasing the probability of a warm winter on the continent. Second, El Niño can also affect the climate and precipitation distribution of the continent, resulting in more precipitation in the south and less precipitation in the north. In addition, El Niño can also affect the risk of meteorological disasters on the mainland, making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense and more extensive.
In fact, the short-term cold wave and other cold phenomena do not conflict with the overall warmth. Because the warm winter is not based on the data of a certain month, but on the average temperature of three months.
From the previous warm to the current cold, everyone has experienced it, and the change range is quite large, and there is even a range of 20 degrees in some areas. Therefore, it is still a little early to say that this year will be a warm or cold winter, and it needs to be observed for a while.
So, will the Spring Festival in 2024 be so cold that you will cry? In fact, the agricultural proverbs left by the ancestors have long been foreshadowed, let's take a look at what they say!
First, the wax moon begins early and the spring water is late
This agricultural proverb is relatively easy to understand, to the effect that if the beginning of the spring festival is in the wax moon, then it indicates that spring will come earlier and the temperature will warm up earlier; if the spring festival is in the first month, then it indicates that spring will come later and the temperature will warm up later.
The year 2024 is a leap year in the Gregorian calendar, and the length of the year is 366 days. The year of the dragon has no leap month, the length of the year is 354 days, and the start and end time is February 10, 2024 - January 28, 2025.
The beginning of spring in 2024 is on February 4, which corresponds to the 25th lunar month of the lunar calendar. Therefore, there is also a beginning of the Spring Festival in the lunar month this year, according to the above agricultural proverb, the temperature warmed up relatively early this year, that is to say, by the time of the Spring Festival, it may have been warm.
There is a similar agricultural proverb "the beginning of spring before the beginning of the year is warm, and the beginning of spring after the year is cold in February", which expresses similar meanings.
Second, the cold wind welcomes the heavy snow, and the weather is warm in Sanjiu
This agricultural proverb is to the effect that if the weather of cold wind and snowfall is ushered in during the heavy snow solar term, then it indicates that the weather will be relatively warm all year round during the "March Nine" period.
It is still in the middle of the heavy snow season, according to the agricultural proverb, the weather will not be cold, and it may be the time of the "39" day, it will start to warm again.
Even the coldest "39" day is warmer than usual, and when it comes to the Spring Festival, it will naturally not be too cold.
Third, the winter solstice comes early, and the Spring Festival does not wear a jacket
This is an agricultural proverb that judges the warmth and coldness of the Spring Festival according to the winter solstice, to the effect that in the year when the winter solstice comes early, the weather will not be too cold during the Spring Festival, and people do not need to wear cotton jackets, indicating that it is already very warm by the time of the Spring Festival.
The winter solstice corresponds to a relatively fixed time in the Gregorian calendar, generally between December 21 and 23 of the Gregorian calendar every year. However, the corresponding lunar dates are much different. For example, in some years, the winter solstice occurs in the first 11th month of the lunar calendar, in some years it occurs in the middle of the 11th lunar month, and in some years it occurs in the late 11th lunar month.
This year's winter solstice festival is on the tenth day of the eleventh month of the lunar calendar, which is in the first half of the lunar calendar, and according to the folk saying, it is "early winter solstice". According to the agricultural proverb above, it may not be so cold by the time of the Spring Festival.
Of course, agricultural proverbs also have regional and limitations, and there are so many regions in the country that they cannot be generalized, just look at them in general.
Do you think this year will be a warm or cold winter?
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