Underestimate Putin's determination to be careful about his suffering
The whole of Russia is entering a wartime system, and Western sanctions against Russia have not played a decisive role. The key is that two large Asian countries with a population of more than 1 billion people have effectively undertaken Russian energy exports, as well as exports to the Russian industrial goods industry.
According to Putin's annual speech, because of the full mobilization of Russia's military industry, the unemployment rate in Russia is only 2.9%, the lowest in history. At the same time, Russia's GDP grew by 3.5%.
On the Russian-Ukrainian front, 486,000 Russians have become contract soldiers this year and have entered the Russian-Ukrainian front to fight. On the entire Russian-Ukrainian front, the strength of the Russian army has reached more than 610,000 people. The Ukrainian army is decreasing in its assault forces, and this year Ukraine has lost 747 tanks and 2,300 armored vehicles.
At the same time, Putin said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, and now there is a civil war. Odessa is a Russian city that everyone is familiar with. The south-east of Ukraine has always been pro-Russian, as these regions are historically Russian territories.
According to an analysis by the German newspaper Bild, Russia's goal is to seize the entire Donbas region, as well as the Kupyansk transport hub, in 2024. By 2026, the capture of Odessa, as well as the important town of Kharkiv, will finally reach the objectives of the campaign.
Russia is now a large military camp, feeding its military factories with energy exports, and producing more tanks, armor vehicles, artillery and artillery shells than the entire 31 NATO countries to put into the battlefield with full mobilization.
Volunteers and mobilized soldiers were recruited and mobilized throughout the country to go to the battlefield. Russia has a population of only 140 million, even if there are 70 million men, of which 10 million are 20-30 years old.
Not counting the more than 300,000 conscripts recruited this year, in this year alone, 480,000 contract soldiers were conscripted to go to the front line of Russia and Ukraine. That is to say, Russian men aged 20-30 will have an average of 1 out of 20 people participating in contract soldiers to go to the front line this year. Judging from Russia's conscription capacity and population base, the Russian army can withstand 1 year, with 100,000-150,000 casualties, while continuing to maintain the ability to go on the offensive.
If the West wants to continue to aid Ukraine, then it must continue to invest at least $300-400 billion in aid in 2024-2026 so that Ukraine can maintain the front, as well as have the money to pay salaries, pensions, and keep the city running. Because, Ukraine itself produces almost nothing and can only rely on Western aid, and once the free aid stops, it risks a quick failure.
The Russian army invested 400 heavy artillery pieces and 3 new army groups
After training in 2023, Russia has newly established the 18th Army, the 25th Army and the 40th Army, and the Russian army has begun to put these three new armies into the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. Of these, the 18th Army was on the Zaporozhye front, and the 25th Army was reinforced to the Kremina front.
At the same time, 400 2S4 Tulip 240-mm self-propelled mortars and 2S7 Peony 203-mm self-propelled heavy guns have been completely repaired and equipped with 5 new heavy artillery brigades.
The disadvantage of the Ukrainian army is that it is difficult to replenish Ukrainian veterans after losses, while the Russian army can continuously replenish new units. Now the Ukrainian army has fully moved to a defensive state. The 610,000 Russian army can concentrate on any battlefield to surprise the weak areas of the Ukrainian army's defense with absolute superiority.
The Russian army will use 500 kg air-launched gliding bombs, Tornado-G multiple rocket launchers, turbo motorcycle suicide drones, 203 mm heavy artillery brigades, and 240 mm heavy artillery brigades to carry out a three-dimensional battle.
After the Russian army seized 98% of the area of Maryinka, the next target will continue to advance towards Hyoshivka. The immediate goal of the Russian army in the region is to occupy the tactical heights between Novomekhailivka and Maryinka in order to deprive the Ukrainian army of the opportunity to counterattack.
However, if the Russian army is unable to seize tactical heights for a month, then there is a risk that the fighting in this direction will again enter a state of trench warfare. It is still necessary to gnaw inch by inch.
In the Avadiivka direction, the Russian army has both advantages and disadvantages, and in the southern factory area, the fighting is now very intense. Now it looks like the factory area is the focus of the defense of the Ukrainian army. After seizing the factory area, the Russian army will clear the forest area before entering the city of Avadiivka.
In the direction of the coking plant and garbage mountain in the north, the Russian army is continuing to attack, is fighting fiercely with the 110th Brigade of the Ukrainian Army's territorial defense, and is engaged with the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army in the northwest direction. The Russian army is attacking from multiple routes, but it still wants to enter the urban area as soon as possible, develop the advantages of the Russian army's heavy artillery and street fighting, and drag the Ukrainian army into the tragic urban street fighting.
In Kupyansk, the Russian army threw in a number of elite units, including the 1st Guards Tank Army. Recently, the Ukrainian army has also amassed hundreds of mine-resistant anti-ambush vehicles in this direction, and 75 tanks and armored vehicles on the Svato-Kremina front.
It is possible that the Ukrainian army will launch a round of counterattacks against the Russian army. The style of the commander of the Ukrainian army at the front, Syrsky, is like this, very fanatical offensive. Zaluzhny, on the other hand, paid more attention to defensive warfare.
If this kind of endless consumption with Russia continues, then who will be the final winner? The current situation between Russia and Ukraine is indeed a bit unfavorable for Ukraine, and there are two reasons: the lack of reserve manpower and the uncertainty of Western aid. In November, the United States only aided Ukraine with less than 10,000 artillery shells, while the Russian army fired at least hundreds of thousands of artillery shells on the battlefield.
Russia, which has entered a wartime regime, is resuming its offensive. As long as the Russian army attacks, it doesn't matter where it goes to reinforcements, and it doesn't consider seizing the strategic initiative at all, it is fighting to the death with the Russian army.
Ukraine began to take the defensive on all fronts, while the Russian army began to carry out tentative offensives everywhere. However, the Ukrainian army is still far from a total defeat. According to the Russian satellite network, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that in the past 1 week, 82 Ukrainian troops surrendered and were captured, which shows that the morale of the Ukrainian army has not collapsed. The fierce fighting will continue.