At present, the cost performance of A-shares is outstanding! What are the main lines of investment? The strategies of the top 10 brokerages are coming
Finance Associated Press, December 3 (edited by Liu Yue Yihui) The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages have been released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: The inflection point of confidence and the market is approaching
In December, investors' confidence in the economy and the market is expected to usher in an inflection point, and it is expected that the capital behavior will be adjusted at the end of the year, and the market ecology is expected to improve.
On the one hand, from the perspective of boosting confidence, the current economic fundamentals are still unstable, and it is expected that there will be intensive policy measures to improve pessimistic economic expectations. On the other hand, from the perspective of changes in capital behavior, the atmosphere of pure "speculation" is expected to cool down, active funds have signs of high and low, foreign capital outflow pressure has been released for most of the time, it is expected that there will be a phased easing around Christmas, and relative income funds have a certain momentum at the end of the year to adjust positions to the theme of the technology industry to enhance market activity. In terms of allocation, the market in December is still in the second stage of the "three-stage allocation strategy", and it is recommended to actively deploy technology and pharmaceuticals with large declines in the early stage.
Huaan Securities: The market wants to rise and suppress the allocation to grasp the financial switch
Looking forward to the market in December, it may show a trend of first declining and then rising, and it is expected to continue the early rebound after the Central Economic Work Conference. In terms of subsequent configuration, two ideas can be considered from different time dimensions:
The first idea is that the short-term style may switch in the direction of finance, including brokers, banks, insurance, etc. The main reasons are: first, the macro combination of economic fundamentals continuing to repair + liquidity is expected to be marginally loose (there is a possibility of RRR reduction in December), which provides an opportunity for a short-term financial style market;
The second idea is to continue to firmly allocate medium- and long-term certainty directions, including: electronics and communications, which are expected to recover from a new round of industrial cycle and catalyzed by Huawei's chain, as well as pharmaceuticals and biosciences that are resonant at the bottom of profitability and valuation.
CICC: Attention to the policy of stabilizing growth continues to rise
Some macro data show that since August, the improvement and repair of economic activities have signs of slowing down again, the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom and wither line for two consecutive months, and the increase in housing price volatility in some cities has also enhanced investors' attention to the real estate industry chain, and the recent overseas pressure has eased, in this context, the trend of the RMB exchange rate and the stock market performance have shown a short-term divergence, especially the overall performance of the index and sector with higher economic relevance in the stock market is weak, and the CSI 300 has pulled back to near the October low this week. Looking ahead, the current time point is close to the policy window period, and the performance of the market outlook should not be pessimistic, as the market pulls back to near the previous low, the market valuation is once again low to the historical extreme level, and the current position has implied more pessimistic expectations, and the medium-term opportunities of the A-share market still outweigh the risks. Recently, we have paid attention to some positive signs: 1) the re-entry of state-owned capital has helped stabilize market confidence, and 2) the expectation of further easing of overseas tightening expectations.
In terms of allocation, combined with the current macro environment and liquidity factors, we believe that the A-share small-cap style is expected to continue to dominate, but we need to pay attention to the degree of valuation differentiation of the small-cap style and the impact of subsequent policy settings on economic expectations. At the industry level, it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry chain and the smart car industry chain, as well as innovative drugs that benefit from the company's overseas expansion and the easing of the interest rate environment.
Haitong Securities: The current A-share cost performance is outstanding, and the follow-up attention is paid to the policy catalysis in important meetings
Since the end of October, U.S. bond interest rates have fallen, and U.S. stocks have performed strongly, while A/H shares have performed relatively weakly, especially the real estate chain has adjusted more. Behind the adjustment of the real estate chain is the lack of quality of the real estate data of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", and behind the recovery of the pharmaceutical and electronic markets is the gradual reversal of fundamental expectations.
At present, the valuation of A-shares is at a historical low, the cost performance of A-shares is outstanding, and the domestic economic fundamentals have been in the recovery trend, so the positive policies of the important meeting in December should be tracked. Proactive policies alleviate market concerns and promote the repair of big financial valuations. In terms of brokers, the Central Financial Work Conference proposed to activate the capital market and cultivate first-class investment banks and investment institutions. Undervalued and underallocated pharmaceuticals are also expected to usher in a fundamental reversal. Policy and technology-driven are expected to promote the development of the technology market, and the upward cycle of electronics may be better.
Zheshang Securities: Focus on high dividend strategies at the end of the year and the beginning of the year
Since late November, the excess returns of high-dividend sectors represented by coal, transportation, and utilities have gradually expanded. At present, we believe that we can continue to pay attention to the allocation value of high-dividend assets at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
At the same time, we are currently in the transition period between old and new themes, and we believe that we can pay attention to the brewing of potential new themes, such as urban village transformation, data elements, AI hardware innovation, robots, etc.
Guotai Junan: The layout is in the event of a rainy day
The upward revision of the total volume expectation requires new variables, and the entry of the national team into the market is expected to reduce short-term volatility, and the index fluctuates in a narrow range. Small-cap stocks are active but their trading advantages are declining, and the allocation to stable stocks is gradually increasing.
Investment themes and individual stock recommendations: smart cars/AIGC/Xiaomi ecological chain/production capacity going overseas. 1. Smart cars: Huawei is reconstructing the smart car industry ecosystem and is optimistic about increasing the penetration rate of high-end smart driving. Recommended intelligent driving (Bethel/Lianchuang Electronics)/intelligent cockpit (Desay SV/ArcSoft Technology), etc. 2. AIGC: New applications have been accelerated, and large models have entered the commercialization stage. Recommend content producers with model capabilities (Tencent Holdings/iFLYTEK). 3. Xiaomi ecological chain: Xiaomi has accelerated the improvement of the supply, production and sales system of Xiaomi automobiles to build a competitive advantage in the whole ecosystem. Recommend Xiaomi 3C and the automotive ecological chain (Xiaomi Group/Wuxi Zhenhua). 4. Overseas production capacity: Relying on the advantages of domestic industrial chain and production capacity, we will explore overseas incremental markets. Recommend auto parts (iKedi) / hardware tools (superstar technology) / cross-border e-commerce (Huakai Yibai).
GF Securities: Layout of spring restless growth and recovery assets
We judge that the current round of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has ended, and the short-term narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will make the "new paradigm" enter a phased "review period". Chinese stocks set sail to select growth and recovery assets with optimized supply and demand patterns. In 23 years, the new investment paradigm of A-shares has been established: the interest rate of US bonds is higher for longer, and the interest rate of Chinese bonds is lower for longer. However, at present, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will narrow in a short cycle, and the "new paradigm" has entered a phased "review period". We predict that overseas pricing will deduce a "syllogism", and Chinese stocks will set sail, focusing on the policy guidance of the Central Economic Work Conference. It is recommended to observe the marginal improvement in demand along three "supply-side" cues, configuring:1. Supply clearance + marginal demand recovery of growth and recovery varieties (consumer electronics chain, semiconductor design, innovative drugs, robots);2. China's advantageous manufacturing + the United States is expected to replenish the warehouse to boost foreign demand (textiles, chemical raw materials, electronic components);3. A new round of "pan-AI + Huawei" technology supply creates demand (intelligent driving, XR, radio frequency, and satellite communications).
Essence Securities: Before 2025, it will be small-cap growth + large-cap value and high dividends
At the beginning of 2023, Essence Strategy Team took the lead in proposing the A-share "Large-Cap Value, High Dividends as Core Asset Investment + Small-Cap Growth, AI Digital Economy, TMT as Industry Theme Investment", which has been continuously and effectively verified by the market. At present, it is inclined to believe that in 2024, the dual main line style of A-share large-cap value, high dividend + small-cap growth will continue. It is worth noting that the investment of high-dividend varieties in the first half of 2024 needs to be combined with the central bank's interest rate cut (10-year treasury bond yield) to evaluate its strategic value;
Further, the market style is combined with the investment strategy of making money in the current market: 1. Mapping of technology stocks and U.S. stocks (small-cap growth, such as diet pills and AI), 2. Manufacturing looks at the global competitiveness of the industry (large-market growth, such as buses, forklifts, auto parts, white goods), 3. The fourth era of consumer stocks looks at the "replacement" of consumption (small-cap value), 4. High-dividend strategy (large-cap value, energy and power).
BOC Securities: Growth is the best solution for the rebound
Overseas countries are moving from inflation tightening to recession easing, and the A-share financial cycle is changing from retrograde to tailwind, and growth is the best solution for the current rebound. (1) Growth has the superposition effect from valuation repair to valuation expansion. Overseas mapping, the upward capital expenditure cycle, and the short supply of products are the sources of high growth in the industry's performance, and these industries focus on emerging leading industries, such as the AI industry chain. (2) The direction of the least policy resistance and the largest expected returns: brokers. (3) Benefiting from the upward trend of the second inventory cycle and the booming midstream high-end manufacturing: cyclical growth electronics (consumer electronics), automobiles (intelligent driving industry chain), robot industry chain, etc.
Huaxi Securities: In the current market environment, why do funds favor small market capitalization?
In this round of rebound, the small-cap style prevails. The latest data shows that the pattern of "weak recovery" of the economy has not changed, and the equity market continues to play a stock game pattern. The nature of marginal funds determines the short-term market style, and the weakening of institutional pricing power in this round of rebound makes the blue-chip style less elastic. Since November, financing funds have become the main incremental funds of A-shares, helping the small-capitalization style to strengthen.
Can the small cap market continue? Since February 2021, the relative dominance of the small cap market has lasted for about 3 years, and the current CSI 300/CNI 2000 price index is 0.42 (set at the beginning of 2010 to 1), which is still 25% higher than the extreme value at the end of 2016, indicating that the current interpretation of the small market cap has not reached the extreme level. At present, the domestic real estate market is undergoing a major transformation and looking for a new balance, in the context of weak economic recovery, the policy of stabilizing growth needs to be strengthened, and the relatively loose domestic monetary environment is still the main tone in the next stage. From the perspective of the nature of funds, since the beginning of this year, the money-making effect of the domestic equity market has been weak, resulting in a sluggish fund issuance and insufficient incremental foreign capital. The small-cap style may have a short-term equilibrium due to the relative valuation comparison, but the pricing logic of large-scale style switching is not yet solid, and the small market capitalization market is likely to be over in the medium and long term.
(Finance Associated Press, Liu Yue)