Eighty percent of new models next year are new energy, and fuel vehicles will die?

In the Chinese market, nearly eighty percent of new models next year are new energy, and the major car companies have a clear attitude, leaving little space for fuel vehicles.

At the Guangzhou Auto Show just past, new energy vehicles unsurprisingly became the absolute home field. Wang Jun, President and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of Changan Automobile, mentioned at the auto show that in 2024, 151 new products are expected to be launched in the Chinese market, 117 new energy products in the Chinese market, and 77% of the new energy products will be listed in the Chinese market. In 2024, it is expected that the supply scale of new energy products will exceed the total demand, and the supply side is no longer a short board restricting the development of new energy vehicles.

All car companies are all in new energy, and the base of fuel vehicles is difficult to stabilize

During the Guangzhou Auto Show, Beijing Hyundai said that it will position itself as the flagship year of its products in 2024 and will still carry out its 2024 plan based on the fuel market. However, even if it takes a defensive position, Beijing Hyundai still needs to accelerate the transformation of smart electricity, and Qi Xiaohui, deputy general manager of the company, said that Beijing Hyundai will launch a new pure electric product in 2024.

There are not many car companies like Beijing Hyundai that have publicly stated that they want to stabilize the base of fuel vehicles. When it comes to fuel vehicles, more car companies are saying goodbye. For example, the eighth-generation Volkswagen Golf will be the last generation of the gasoline Golf, and the 50-year-old classic will come to an end, while BMW's last internal combustion engine at its plant in Munich, Germany, will be transformed into an electric vehicle production base after the upgrade.

The vast majority of car companies are all in new energy. Not long ago, Mu Feng, president of Great Wall Motors, said that 2024 will be a big year for Great Wall Motor's new energy products, and it will intensively launch and supplement the product line. In 2024, Great Wall Motor will focus on the PHEV and BEV markets, aiming to achieve sales of 1.9 million units. Judging from the five major brand goals of Great Wall Motors, WEY brand, ORA and tank have locked in new energy, and Haval and pickup trucks are also fuel and new energy dual-line efforts.

Wang Xiaofei, vice president of Changan Automobile, also said that new energy vehicles are becoming a strong growth of the mainland economy with an unstoppable trend, and independent new energy brands will also usher in the best decade of golden development in history. Changan Automobile will launch more than 20 blockbuster models around the world by 2025, of which AVATR plans to complete the launch of 4 pure electric models by 2024, deepen the main channel of BEVs, and lay out a new track for extended range. Shenlan plans to build a "6+1" product matrix by 2025 to create the industry's first extended range brand. Kaizen, a new energy brand, plans to launch seven new products by 2025.

You Zheng, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Motor, who is also an independent brand, said that in 2024, Dongfeng Motor will realize the full electrification of new cars of its own brand, and will launch more than 10 new cars in the next two years.

Foreign brands have followed the local customs and have also followed up on the new energy plan. In order to meet the Chinese government's goal of higher standards, Honda has brought forward its previous target of ending the launch of pure fuel vehicles by 2030 by three years, and will not launch new pure fuel models from 2027 onwards.

The involution proves that the supply of new energy vehicles has long exceeded demand

"It is not surprising that nearly eighty percent of new models will be new energy next year," Li Jinyong, vice president of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the New Energy Vehicle Committee, pointed out that many international car companies have already announced a timetable to stop developing fuel vehicles, and the rapid advancement of the Chinese market is also expected.

"Because everyone has found that the rapid decline in the market share of fuel vehicles is no longer expected, but a fact. It's not that car companies are no longer pushing new fuel vehicles, but they won't spend a lot of effort on research and development. Li Jinyong believes that in the traditional engine market, there is a generation gap between China and the world level, but in the field of new energy vehicles has shown advantages, the success of BYD's transformation and the emergence of new energy vehicle exports have given many car companies confidence, so more and more car companies shouted out the slogan of "all in" new energy.

In the view of Chen Wei, general manager of Cathay Pacific Souche (Tianjin) Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., it is the general trend for car companies to promote new energy. On the one hand, consumers are becoming more environmentally conscious: global climate deterioration is driving the automotive industry to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy solutions, on the other hand, new energy vehicle technology is constantly evolving, such as battery technology, electric motor efficiency and energy management system optimization, which makes these vehicles more practical and attractive to consumers, and the state has given strong policy support to the development of new energy vehicles.

Li Hongwei, a veteran of the automotive industry, believes that high oil prices have pushed many users to new energy vehicles, coupled with the rapid development of new energy technology, the development of models "big and beautiful", well meet the needs of Chinese consumers.

Li Jinyong believes that in fact, it is not that the supply scale of new energy products in 2024 will exceed the total demand, but that in recent years, the supply of new energy vehicles has been in excess of demand. He analyzed that there are many new energy vehicle brands, and some brands have only a few thousand or even hundreds of monthly sales, and these car companies have a production capacity of tens of thousands of vehicles per month, but the sales volume is not enough to support, so the production capacity has not been released.

In addition, the annual sales of new energy vehicles have climbed all the way from 3 million to 5 million and 7 million, and the market has expanded rapidly.

Breakthroughs in battery technology can really kill fuel vehicles

Although the new energy vehicle market has been oversupplied, major car companies are still gathering firepower to target this growth highland, and there is even a continuous influx of new players such as Xiaomi and Huawei.

Chen Wei believes that the consequences of the continuous intensification of oversupply are first of all the price war, making new energy vehicles more affordable, and secondly, the acceleration of innovation, in order to stand out from the competition, car companies will increase R&D investment, and launch products with higher performance, longer battery life, Models with faster charging speeds and more innovative features, thirdly, will lead to faster market consolidation, with less competitive companies likely to be eliminated from the market or acquired by stronger competitors, and finally, more consumer choice, as oversupply means that consumers will have more options to choose the right model based on their individual needs and preferences.

Of course, the fiercer the competition, the more the viability of the brand will be tested, and Chen Wei believes that continuous technological innovation is the key to improving competitiveness, especially in battery performance, charging speed and autonomous driving. Reducing production costs, improving efficiency, making new energy vehicles more affordable, engaging consumers through unique design, brand storytelling and user experience, and establishing an extensive service and support network to improve user satisfaction and loyalty are the keys to the survival of new energy vehicles.

In Li Jinyong's view, when the cost of batteries gradually declines, and the prices of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles reach the same, new energy vehicles will enter the stage of rapid popularization of popularization. In the future, for new energy vehicles, the most important thing is the scale of sales, "the monthly sales list, not only industry insiders pay attention, consumers are also very concerned, and brands with poor sales will be considered by consumers to be at risk of bankruptcy."

More importantly, if the scale of sales cannot go up, the cost cannot be amortized, and the enterprise will always fall into a vicious circle of losses. "Therefore, new energy brands must not care about the gains and losses of one city and one pool, even if they lose money in the early stage, they must first create explosive models and increase the sales scale. Li Jinyong suggested.

Li Hongwei believes that fuel vehicles will not withdraw from the market in the short term. He pointed out that at present, the disposal of new energy second-hand cars is difficult, and in the next few years, as old new energy vehicles reach the battery scrapping period, consumers will have a new understanding of new energy vehicles. However, if battery technology can achieve breakthroughs in harmlessness (non-lithium), longevity (20 years or more), large capacity (more than 4 times greater energy density than today), and short charging time (10 minutes), "it will really kill gasoline vehicles."

Text: Hao Wenli Editor: Xue Yapei Layout: Zhao Fangting