Banks are going to be out of luck!

1

I haven't talked about the property market for a long time, first, the whole industry is like a bird, and it is meaningless to say more and less;

But in the past half a month, there have been some new policies suddenly, and many fans are asking what the impact will be, and I think it is still necessary to help you sort it out.

In ancient times, when marching and fighting, there was a well-known art of war, called: one blow, then decline, three and exhaustion!

It is very appropriate to look at this year's property market with this sentence.

Today, the property market has experienced two roller coasters, the first time in February and March, the second time in September and October, and the third time is still waiting, and in the end I don't know if there is more.

In Mi Zhai's strategic product "Mi Zhai Global Internal Reference Private Group", I have been reminding fans that we must look at the bailout policy more cautiously and dialectically this year.

There is nothing else, because many of the current economic situation and the current situation of the property market at this moment have not been experienced.

If you haven't experienced it, it means that everyone (the so-called everyone, the technical processing done for the sake of article security, the specific reference is understood separately, the same below) has no experience, and I don't know how to deal with it at this moment is the most approximate correctness.

On the contrary, everyone is speculating about market trends and groping for implementation plans, and they are all feeling the stones to cross the river, which means that there may be a strong cost of trial and error.

When the market came for the first time, everyone was very confident, thinking that the demand at the grassroots level had always existed, but it had been suppressed, so as long as the flow of people was completely released, everything would make a comeback, and the north and south of the river would be prosperous.

As a result, the market only ran for a month and a half, and the market suddenly died down and did not go back according to the expected script.

However, when it was most necessary to increase the fire, the policy did not keep up in time, but chose to wait and see, and waited until it was almost completely cold, and then suddenly woke up. Hurry up and relax the restrictions.

However, it was already August, and the daylilies were cold.

At this time, everyone felt that the policy restrictions were too strict, as long as they were released, everything would come back, and the north and south of the river would be prosperous.

As a result, all hopes were pinned on the pull of the first-tier cities, and after recognizing the house and not the loan, the first-tier market was indeed on fire again, but the final result led to a direction that no one thought of.

Here's the picture.

Everyone didn't expect that it was supposed to bail out the new houses in the market, but everyone's minds turned out to be second-hand houses.

Caixin's data is that after recognising the mortgage but not recognising the loan, the number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing soared to 170,000 units, and in Shenzhen it was 60,000 units, all of which were at the highest level in history.

This has led to another consequence, that is, the speed of sales is far from keeping up with the speed of listing.

And the quantity difference is forming a huge scissors difference.

And the two are inversely proportional, with more and more listings, but selling more and more slowly-

In the end, I can only fight who is the most ruthless again.

Whoever has the lower price can sell it, and whoever lowers the price the most can sell it; this has caused a new round of stampede shipments.

And this scene, in fact, in March, we have already seen it.

At that time, the sales volume did go up, but the average sales price went all the way down, and the result was that everyone was dumping goods at low prices.

No one could have imagined that both markets would become an excellent time for sellers to get rid of second-hand houses.

But in specific comparison, the second wave of small markets in September and October is far less than that in February and March.

A comparison of the numbers will be clearer:

In March, 7,000 and 22,000 new and second-hand houses were signed online in Beijing.

In October, the number of new and second-hand houses in Beijing was 5,177 and 106.53 million respectively.

One drum, then decline, three and exhaustion! The ancients did not deceive me!

More importantly, the negative conduction effect of this blow-up and then decline is like a shock wave of a nuclear bomb, oscillating far away.

In March, Country Garden was still auspicious, and it was still a model for private developers, but in August, it suddenly thundered.

Gemdale has never had a substantial thunderstorm, but the bond has long become a junk bond, and to put it bluntly, everyone knows that Gemdale is just carrying it.

Vanke, a mixed-ownership enterprise with a sense of crisis engraved in its bones, and the spiritual coordinates of a real estate enterprise, say that it is shorted by capital, and there is simply no room at all.

Obviously, with the continuous sluggishness of sales, under the shortage of funds, developers who rely heavily on sales receipts are entering a moment of gradual and complete freezing from the original cold winter.

One blow, then decline, three and exhaustion!

Everyone knows that the slide to the third stage has already begun!

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Obviously, the decision-makers are also aware of this. If it doesn't work this time, maybe it's really all three.

That's why there will be November, this whole month of intensive bailouts. Unlike the previous two main attacks, this time it really began to save with real money.

This is one trillion yuan of three major project funds, the white list of 50 real estate enterprises reproposed by financial institutions, and the three bank bailout real estate enterprises required by the financial side.

The latest news is that banks are allowed to provide unsecured working capital loans to property developers.

This is also an unprecedented move.

But the crux of the matter is that if we look at the policy content alone, everything is absolutely correct and inspiring.

But why has it been saved for more than two years, but the real estate companies have been rescued more and more?

How can this paradox be explained?

Data is the best reality:

In the first 10 months of 2023, the total amount of credit bond financing of real estate enterprises was 364.8 billion. Among them, mixed ownership such as Vanke and pure private real estate enterprises such as Country Garden add up, only 41.2 billion.

Of the 41.2 billion, Vanke accounted for 10 billion, leaving only 31.2 billion.

is as good as Vanke, and in the entire first 10 months, it was only 10 billion.

In layman's terms, banks are priced on a risk-based basis.

At this moment, the best criterion for risk pricing is to look at the background. Origin is determined according to the purity of state-owned assets.

The purer the safer, and the rest is.

This belief in origin is a well-known unspoken rule, an open secret.

It is also the fundamental reason why all bailout policies look good, but they are not grounded.

Because the underlying logic is game theory.

This is because banks need to control risks, avoid bad debts, and avoid the loss of state-owned assets.

All this is the main responsibility of the bank.

I said one thing in the Mi Zhai Global Internal Reference, sometimes, the reason why policies fight with each other, such as the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, there will be open contradictions between each other's policies, and it is also because of this, because everyone has the main responsibility, and the first consideration must be the security and rule constraints of the subject.

And this kind of game deviation is the basic ability that we must have to understand the policy and see the situation clearly.

For example, the first consideration of the bank must be the safety of the lending funds, and there can be no return without return, which is to be responsible for life.

That's the problem. It is also the core reason why the real estate company has been rescued since the end of 2021 until today, but it is getting more and more rescued.

This time, asking the bank to lend to a real estate company without collateral is like another pipe dream.

According to a report by Caixin, the president of one of the four major banks said that it is unrealistic to expect the financial side to rescue real estate companies, and it should be expected to speed up sales collection!

So, we saw a black comedy!

The sales side can get the money back, Country Garden will not be a thunderstorm, and Vanke will not be sold off.

Everything is back into the original unsolvable loop!

But maybe it's not much to say, in the end there is a solution, everything is left to time, just like we always do when we can't get it, given time, Lao Tzu...

The chief says that after enough time to recuperate, everything will be back to normal!

But the uncertainty now, the main thing is time...

It seems like something was said, and it was as if nothing was said!