Ten years ago, everything could be connected, and ten years later, everything can be photovoltaic. However, the problem of photovoltaic consumption is becoming more and more serious!
Text / NE-SALON
Recently, at the 19th China Solar-grade Silicon and Photovoltaic Power Generation Seminar, Shi Jingli of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic continues to expand, and it is recommended that all localities cancel the requirements for distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage.
01. Since the "14th Five-Year Plan", the quality of distributed photovoltaic development has been significantly improved
In recent years, with the rapid development of photovoltaics, various companies have seen the dividends of the photovoltaic industry, and want to seek the rise of stock prices with photovoltaics.
Photovoltaic power generation can be divided into centralized and distributed systems. The development of centralized and distributed photovoltaics in mainland China goes hand in hand, especially distributed photovoltaics, which are developing particularly rapidly. In June 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other nine departments jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy", emphasizing the integration of multiple scenarios of photovoltaic power generation and the comprehensive development of distributed photovoltaics. The release of this policy marks the beginning of a full-speed development phase for China's distributed PV development. According to the data, as of the end of September 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV in China reached 225 million kilowatts, accounting for 43% of the total PV power generation capacity. In 2021, 2022 and the first half of 2023, the annual equivalent utilization hours, which directly reflect the quality of domestic distributed photovoltaic development, were 1,029 hours, 1,079 hours and 553 hours, respectively, showing a year-on-year growth trend compared with the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.
02. The situation of household photovoltaic grid-connected consumption is severe, and distributed photovoltaic may also be forced to distribute and store?
Since the revenue model of centralized photovoltaic is relatively simple compared with that of distributed photovoltaic and there is no supporting detailed support in terms of income, relevant policies have been issued in various places to require mandatory distribution and storage of large-scale centralized photovoltaic power stations. But now, as distributed PV has become the main force of new installed capacity, the same distribution and storage requirements are gradually occurring in distributed PV such as industrial and commercial, residential PV.
For example, on August 2, 2023, the People's Government of Jindong District, Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of User-side Energy Storage in Jindong District", which requires that new non-residential distributed photovoltaic power generation projects should, in principle, be equipped with an energy storage system equivalent to at least 10% of the installed capacity and a continuous discharge time of not less than 2 hours. By 2024, Jindong District plans to build and connect to 10 MW/20 MWh user-side energy storage projects, and strive to achieve the development target of 30 MW/60 MWh during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The document also encourages enterprise users to adopt the time-of-use tariff mechanism and actively participate in peak shaving and valley filling to optimize grid load demand. The above is a typical distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage policy.
However, Shi Jingli pointed out that with the successive adjustment of time-of-use electricity prices in various places, the maturity of the power ancillary service market, and the development of virtual power plant business, the income mode has become more diversified, and the profit model of distributed photovoltaic is gradually being verified.
Regarding residential PV, Shi Jingli believes that the development and business model of residential PV systems should be adjusted according to the development stage of different regions. First of all, local governments should coordinate the development and grid-connected capacity of residential PV, and further strengthen the standardized development and quality supervision of residential PV. Second, efforts should be made to solve the problem of power grid capacity. Power grid companies should increase the transformation of distribution networks and increase the capacity of residential photovoltaic systems on the low-voltage side according to the demand for residential photovoltaic grid connection. Third, for areas with a high proportion of household PV, the promotion of centralized convergence mode should be encouraged to achieve capacity expansion at the substation and line level. The confluence photovoltaic system can be equipped with energy storage equipment, which is controllable and adjustable, and participates in market competition. Fourth, encourage the increase in the proportion of self-use. Residents are encouraged to provide green credit through independent investment or loans, adjust connectivity and operation models, encourage the installation of residential photovoltaic energy storage or shared energy storage facilities, and expand application scenarios and models in combination with rural energy reform pilot projects and rural electric vehicle deployment.
Regarding industrial and commercial projects, Shi Jingli suggested that county-level pilot projects and the "Thousands of Households Muguang Action" should be used to promote them, so that the roofs of public buildings such as party and government organs, hospitals, schools, and village committees with lower terminal electricity prices than industrial and commercial terminal electricity prices can be fully utilized. At the same time, the integration of photovoltaic technology into buildings should be encouraged, and the integration of photovoltaic buildings should be realized, allowing the use of photovoltaic building materials in the renovation of old and new buildings. In view of the low price of photovoltaic products at present, the comprehensive application project has been connected to the grid. National and local governments should support them through policy support, such as green credit incentives and improvements in standards and norms.
Regarding grid-connected capacity, Shi Jingli believes that the active distribution network planning and construction of distributed PV should be strengthened, and the construction and transformation of power grids should be increased to enhance the ability of distributed PV integration. In addition, it is also important to explore new technologies and development models such as distributed energy storage and cloud energy storage.
On the issue of volatile profits, Shi Jingli also pointed out that development and operating companies must adapt to the revenue fluctuations brought about by this situation. She stressed that local governments should remove the requirement that distributed PV allocation must include energy storage, and encourage the use of peak-to-valley electricity price policies, ancillary services, market capacity, etc. This will shift the willingness and decision-making power to deploy electrochemical energy storage to the development company, with the goal of increasing the proportion of self-consumption or consumption on the distribution grid side, and optimizing the operation and dispatch model accordingly.
Introduction:
Since 1995, Shi Jingli has been a researcher at the Renewable Energy Development Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. Engaged in renewable energy policy research and economic evaluation, as well as other related energy project technical, financial, economic evaluation, project management, etc. Source: NE-SALON