[Niu Titanium Division Review] "Phoenix" flies together, and trillions of transactions catalyze the "Dragon Flying Phoenix Dance" market

At today's close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,052.37 points, down 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10,052.09 points, down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index was at 2,023.13 points, up 0.02%. The turnover of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan again, an increase of 43.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Today, there was a net outflow of 1.231 billion yuan and a net sale of 3.710 billion yuan.

In terms of plates, the concept of short drama games is still strong, Chinese online 20cm up and down, Haikan shares rose nearly 15%, Tianwei Video and Huanrui Century rose up and down. The data shows that the monthly recharge amount of the short drama industry this year has increased from 40 million yuan in June to 60 million yuan in October, and the China Securities Construction Investment Research Report predicts that the market size will reach 200-30 billion in 2023, and it is expected to continue high growth next year. In addition, at the OpenAI developer conference, OpenAI launched GPT-4 Turbo, a new large model that is smarter, has a higher text processing ceiling, and is cheaper. In the future, there is also a lot of room for imagination in the combination of short drama games and AI.

The concept of lithography machine is rising, and the 20cm limit of Fullert is up. Brokerage stocks rose and fell, Founder Securities fell 4.52%, Capital Securities and Pacific fell more than 3%.

It is particularly worth noting that after the collective change of the dragon generation, today's phoenix generation also collectively staged the "dragon flying phoenix dance" market, Phoenix shares, Phoenix optics, Phoenix shipping, Phoenix media, Shanghai Phoenix collective daily limit, even the new third board listed company Anhui Phoenix also closed the 30cm daily limit, combined with today's market turnover and then exceeded one trillion, indicating that the current market capital trading enthusiasm is still relatively active.

The performance of the insurance sector is still relatively sluggish today, with CPIC falling 2.55%. Ping An A-shares of China dived in the afternoon to close down 1.48%, and Hong Kong stocks closed down 5.41%. On the news side, it is reported that Ping An of China will acquire/control Country Garden. In response, Ping An of China immediately issued a statement saying: Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. of China has taken note of a news report published by Reuters about the company being asked by relevant government departments/agencies to acquire Country Garden Holdings Limited and inherit its debts. Ping An solemnly declares that the report is completely inconsistent with the facts, and Ping An has never received any relevant requests from relevant government departments/agencies. Subsequently, Ping An also revealed that as of the end of the third quarter, it no longer held shares in Country Garden.

At the policy level, on November 8, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges issued specific measures to optimize refinancing. Strictly restrict the issuance of securities to unspecified targets by enterprises that have broken the issuance, broken net, or do not meet the 18-month financing interval, and the issuance of securities to specific targets by way of bidding for refinancing, and put forward stricter requirements for the use of funds raised by listed companies in the previous round and financial investment. It has a certain positive effect on curbing the chaos of financing in the capital market.

1. Whether the market turnover can maintain trillions.

2. Continuous opportunities for computing power leasing, computing power scheduling, and lithography machine direction.

3. October CPI data.

Overview of the broader market

On November 8, the three major A-share indices were mixed. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,052.37 points, down 0.16%, with a turnover of 415.3 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10,052.09 points, down 0.04%, with a turnover of 621.3 billion yuan, and the ChiNext Index was at 2,023.13 points, up 0.02%, with a turnover of 303.6 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan again, an increase of 43.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and nearly 2,800 shares fell.

In terms of capital flow, the net outflow of northbound funds was 1.231 billion yuan and the net sale was 3.710 billion yuan, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect had a net outflow of 527 million yuan and a net sale of 1.739 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a net outflow of 704 million yuan and a net sale of 1.971 billion yuan. The net outflow of main funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 22.833 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 6.948 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 15.884 billion yuan, the net outflow of medium orders was 1.897 billion yuan, and the net inflow of small orders was 24.729 billion yuan.

In terms of plates:

In terms of the concept sector, the concept of short drama interactive games performed strongly, with an overall increase of 8.23%. Digital reading, film and television concepts, intellectual property rights, radio and television, and spatio-temporal big data were among the top gainers. Among the industry sectors, cultural media, games, medical devices, electronic chemicals, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors were among the top gainers.

In the short drama interactive game section, Chinese Online 20cm rose and stopped, Tangde Film and Television rose nearly 20%, Haikan shares rose nearly 15%, Palm Reading Technology and Tianwei Video both rose and stopped, and Zhongqingbao, Yuanwang Technology, Huace Film and Television and Tianyu Digital Technology rose more than 5%;

In the digital reading sector, Phoenix Media, Tianyin Holdings, Mercedes-Benz Information, and Southern Media rose by more than 5%; in the film and television concept sector, Liujin Technology once hit the 30cm daily limit, closing up 26.05%, Beijing Culture, Huanrui Century, Simei Media rose 9.86%, and Happy Blue Ocean, Perfect World and Shanghai Film rose by more than 6%;

In the game sector, Palmfun Technology, Shengtian Network rose 8.52%, Tom Cat and Baotong Technology rose more than 5%; in the medical device sector, Hotjing Biotechnology 20cm daily limit, Kemei Diagnostics daily limit, Antu Biological, Nuovezan rose more than 6%, Botuo Biological, Mingde Biological, Adopt Shares, Yahuilong, Huitai Medical, Oriental Biotechnology rose more than 5%; in the electronic chemicals sector, Qiangqiang New Materials 19.97% daily limit, Xilong Science daily limit, Lekai New Materials, Anji Technology rose more than 3%.

In terms of decline, wind power equipment, insurance, securities, diversified finance and other sectors were among the top decliners. In the wind power equipment sector, Hengrun shares fell 5.34%, Taisheng Wind Energy and Haili Wind Power fell more than 3%;

The performance of the insurance sector was sluggish, with China Pacific Insurance down 2.55%, Ping An of China diving down 1.48% in the afternoon, brokerage stocks rising and falling, Founder Securities down 4.52%, Capital Securities and Pacific falling more than 3%, Soochow Securities, Guolian Securities and Tianfeng Securities falling more than 2%.

Market analysis

Overall: The analysis generally believes that in the current position, there are more and more positive factors to promote the market stabilization, and the market is expected to gradually warm.

Ping An Securities Research Report pointed out that the gradual increase in positive internal and external signals is expected to support the continuation of the market rebound. On the one hand, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth continues to exert force, on the other hand, the marginal easing of overseas liquidity constraints, and the introduction of domestic medium and long-term funds is expected to increase. Structurally, it is recommended to pay attention to two main lines, one is the growth sectors such as electronic TMT, advanced manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals that have been catalyzed from the bottom up in the near future and benefited from improved liquidity, and the other is the export chain + consumption industry such as automobiles and food and beverages under the resonance of internal and external demand. Third, the high-dividend sectors under the rising dividend premium still have allocation value, especially the leading financial targets that are expected to benefit from mergers and acquisitions.

The research report of Guojin Securities also said that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have rebounded steadily, and may even usher in a wave of major upward waves beyond expectations-behind the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate has accelerated downward more than expected, and northbound funds may trend and return significantly. Among them, Hong Kong stocks are more resilient, and we should remain optimistic in the period. However, in the medium and long term, there is no reversal or even a cautious bias: on the one hand, the overseas liquidity trap next year may interrupt the logic of the rebound, and on the other hand, the domestic economic recovery trend is not clear, and there may even be a "double bottom".

According to CICC's research report, looking forward to 2024, we believe that the overall opportunities of the A-share market outweigh the risks, and grasp the phased and structural opportunities in combination with the internal and external environment. In terms of rhythm, the index performance may stabilize before and then rise. In terms of allocation, the areas that usher in the reversal of the fundamental cycle are expected to increase, and the opportunities are better than in 2023, so it is recommended to combine the economic recovery with the offensive and defensive of dividend assets, and pay attention to three main lines: 1) growth sectors that conform to the trend of AI and industrial autonomy in economic transformation, 2) bottom-up search for opportunities for demand to improve first or supply out segments, and 3) high-dividend assets with sufficient cash flow and continuous high dividends.

The research report of Guangdong Kai Securities pointed out that from the four levels of market, valuation, liquidity and fundamentals, as the growth rate of net profit of all A turned from negative to positive, the bottom of this round of profit may have been confirmed. The marginal change of overseas monetary policy is expected to greatly ease the liquidity pressure of the market, the suppression of the denominator end is greatly eased, and the risk appetite is expected to be repaired. At the same time, taking history as a mirror, November is also the high point of the annual rising probability, and we believe that with the improvement of a number of indicators, coupled with the warm-up of economic growth at the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year, we will wait for the New Year's Eve market. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to three main lines: (1) the growth style that benefits from the marginal improvement of liquidity, including the TMT, pharmaceutical and power equipment industries, (2) the financial real estate, equipment manufacturing and consumption industries with a high probability of dominance in the fourth quarter, and (3) the food and beverage and offline consumption industries with continuous improvement in the performance of the third quarter and the expectation of price increases.

Judging from the trend of the representative sectors:

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Short plays, interactive games, cultural media:

On the news side, a recent interactive game called "I'm Surrounded by Beautiful Women!" became popular, first beating a number of 3A masterpieces to top the Steam game store in the national region for several days, boiling the game circle with a praise rate of over 95% of players, and at the same time, it frequently ranked first on the Douyin hot list, and became popular in the circle with more than 1 billion main topic playbacks, creating a popular achievement that has never been achieved in the short drama industry.

The China Securities Construction Investment Research Report predicts that the short drama industry will usher in explosive growth this year, and the market size is expected to be 20 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan in 2023, and it is expected to continue to grow at a high rate next year.

Galaxy Securities said in the research report that the current stage of the media sector as a whole has experienced a deep correction in the early stage, the valuation of the head company in 24 years has been close to the lowest level in history, the current industry performance momentum has not been fully released, and it is expected that the performance in 24 years is expected to improve accordingly, and the current point in time is worth more actively layout the game + film and television sector under the empowerment of AI.

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Security:

On the news side, today, the leaders of the national financial supervision put forward the grand goal of building a financial power, and deployed five major articles on science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, injecting strong momentum into high-quality development, and ushering in major development opportunities for China's financial industry.

The data shows that the industry's revenue and net profit increased steadily in the first three quarters. In the first three quarters of 2023, the total operating income of the securities industry was 399.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +1.19%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 116.902 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +7.06%, mainly due to self-operating income.

In the first three quarters, most securities companies achieved positive performance growth. In the first three quarters of 2023, 32 of the 50 listed securities firms achieved positive revenue growth, and 38 achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company.

Dongguan Securities pointed out that since July, a series of policies to activate the capital market have continued to land, including reducing various transaction and management fees, relaxing investor financing restrictions, tightening large-scale financing and reducing holdings of enterprises, and guiding medium and long-term funds to enter the market, which as a whole reflects the theme of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence". Looking ahead, more policies related to the active capital market are expected to continue to be released, medium and long-term institutional funds are expected to enter the market to further increase, and the domestic low interest rate environment attracts funds to flow from the fixed income side to the equity side, and foreign capital is expected to regain the trend of large net inflows with the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and the securities industry is expected to show a positive trend.

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Medical Devices:

On the news side, the Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that with the successive disclosure of the three quarterly reports, the negative impact of anti-corruption on the medical sector has been fully digested by the market, looking at the triple resonance of valuation, position and market sentiment, and the pharmaceutical replenishment β market in the fourth quarter.

In addition, relevant data show that leveraged funds continue to be deployed. The latest financing purchase amount of medical device ETF reached 3.9903 million yuan, and the latest financing balance reached 73.0374 million yuan.

Guojin Securities pointed out that from the demand side, the long-term trend of the growth of patient diagnosis and treatment demand will not be changed by external policy factors. Electrophysiology, flexible endoscopic diagnosis and treatment, peripheral intervention and other fast-growing segmented high-quality track leading companies are expected to continue to achieve high growth, and the trend of domestic substitution of medical devices will continue to be gradually deduced.

Message-wise

1. On November 8, at the opening ceremony and plenary session of the 2023 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, Li Yunze, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, said that financial openness is an important driving force for the reform and development of the mainland's financial industry. In recent years, the mainland has further launched more than 50 opening-up measures, completely abolishing the restrictions on foreign shareholding in the banking and insurance sector, significantly reducing the quantitative threshold for foreign investment, and continuously expanding the breadth and depth of financial opening-up. (Positive market sentiment)

2. On November 8, the Passenger Car Association released data showing that the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 767,000, up 37.5% year-on-year and 2.7% month-on-month. From January to October, the new energy passenger vehicle market retailed a total of 5.954 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%. (Good for the new energy vehicle sector)

3. On November 7, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly convened a symposium with several real estate companies to understand the capital status of the industry and the financing needs of enterprises. It is reported that the participating companies include Vanke, Poly, China Resources, China Shipping, Longfor and Gemdale. In addition, the private enterprise bond financing support tool (known as the "second arrow" in the industry) has made new progress in helping private real estate enterprises to finance. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has actively implemented the spirit of the instructions of the Central Financial Work Conference, and continued to strengthen the "second arrow" to support bond financing of private real estate enterprises. (Good for the real estate development sector)

4. The short drama industry ushered in explosive growth this year, with the monthly recharge amount increasing from 40 million yuan in June this year to 60 million yuan in October, and the China Securities Construction Investment Research Report predicts that the market size will be 200-30 billion in 2023, and it is expected to continue high growth next year. (Good for short drama interactive game concept section)

5. Dr. Daniel Skovronsky, chief scientific officer of Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals, said "extremely optimistic" that a major breakthrough in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease is coming, and the drug being developed may become the next hot spot similar to the weight loss miracle drug "GLP-1". (Good for Alzheimer's Concept Plate)

6. On November 8, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued specific measures to optimize refinancing. The focus is on further tightening the supervision of refinancing, grasping the rhythm of refinancing, and highlighting the support of the good and limiting the inferior. Strictly restrict the issuance of securities to unspecified targets by enterprises that have broken the issuance, broken net, or do not meet the 18-month financing interval, and the issuance of securities to specific targets by way of bidding for refinancing, and put forward stricter requirements for the use of funds raised by listed companies in the previous round and financial investment. This arrangement appropriately tightens the refinancing of listed companies, which is a specific measure taken to fully consider the current market capacity and coordinate the balance of the primary and secondary markets, and is consistent with the intrinsic spirit of the policy measures issued during the same period to further regulate the behavior of share reduction. (Positive market sentiment)

7. The 2023 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was held in Beijing on November 8, and Yang Liu, deputy director of the International Cooperation Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that in recent years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has actively and steadily promoted the institutional two-way opening of the capital market and improved the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing. In view of the recent new situation in the capital market, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has continued to strengthen communication and exchanges with foreign-funded institutions, through various forms such as international investment roundtables and overseas direct communication and exchanges, to understand the views of foreign-funded institutions on the current macro economy and the market, and carefully listen to the opinions and suggestions of foreign-funded institutions, publicize the investment value and investment potential of the domestic capital market, respond to and promote the resolution of foreign investors' concerns, and stabilize foreign investment expectations. (Positive market sentiment)