A directional breakthrough is coming...
Value Line | produce
Hotspot | Column
Bian Jiang| author
Jing Ke | edit
Value line guide
There are big A and small essays every day, some true and some false, but they are very powerful recently, and the stock will rise sharply because of it!
Today's small essay on Ping An's acquisition of Country Garden caused Ping An's Hong Kong stock to plummet by 5.41%.
Another small essay is more eye-catching: "At present, the Intellectual Property Office is accelerating the approval of a number of patents of Shanghai Microelectronics, and HW wants to build a large fund wafer factory, and the third phase of the big fund will directly allocate an investment of 90 billion."
Today's surge in some semiconductor stocks may be due to this reason, such as Huawei leading the breakthrough in semiconductors, in the new round of global games, we will have more chips and confidence.
At present, the major A-share indices have been in a volatile period after the over-falling rebound.
Wandering, is accumulating strength, but also waiting for a breakthrough!
Asia-Pacific Summit
The top leaders of China and the United States met
The world is in turmoil, but a visit with the main line of "back to Bali, to San Francisco" may add a touch of certainty to this troubled world.
Recently, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Premier He Lifeng have visited the United States one after another, accelerating the expectation of the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders in San Francisco in mid-November.
The APEC summit will be held in San Francisco, USA, from November 15 to 17, and will be attended by representatives from 21 economies from 19 countries. The San Francisco meeting is an important dialogue between China and the United States at an important historical juncture, and the theme of this meeting will be peace, cooperation and win-win results.
We can also see some positive signs in the recent US-China relationship, with US container imports from China reaching their highest level since August 2022 in September, according to Descartes.
If all goes well at this meeting, this will have a good impact on the RMB exchange rate, energy prices, domestic high-tech restrictions, and foreign trade exports, and at the same time, it will also give risk assets a "peaceful" atmosphere.
From the establishment of the China-US Economic and Financial Working Group in August, to the frequent exchange of high-level visits in September, to the visit of the Governor of California and various business delegations to China in October, and then to the expected APEC China-US summit meeting in November, it can be said that it is the most significant easing since the epidemic. Because the Sino-US relationship is the biggest sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of international investors, the easing of this risk factor is a big positive for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
In the past few days, some well-known analysts have even shouted that if the leaders of China and the United States meet smoothly, A-shares (SSE) will rise by at least 200 points.
Recently, Haitong's chief strategy officer said that at the APEC summit in the middle of this month, there is a high probability that Chinese and American leaders will meet. From this point of view, I am afraid that there will be some more positive results to look forward to, which is also a positive factor for the market, especially the outflow of foreign capital in the past three months, if the domestic fundamentals improve, and there is some improvement in Sino-US relations, foreign capital will also return. Therefore, under the resonance of these factors, the market is expected to warm.
Even if the confrontation between China and the United States at the economic, trade, and financial levels eases somewhat, the strong competition in science and technology and the antagonism between ideologies will persist for a long time.
A breakthrough in high technology
In the past year, there has been a cross-generational technological explosion, with the emergence of artificial intelligence represented by ChatGPT, which is redefining the future of productivity.
The race between China and the United States over AI is also heating up.
In the past year, the United States has unleashed the technology killer of OPEN AI, and in China, companies such as Baidu and 360 are also gearing up to develop and launch related competing products. However, the rapid progress and iteration of OPEN AI's technology has left many large model manufacturers in China in the dust.
How big is the gap between Chinese and American AI products? Some aspects say that it is a few months or half a year, but many third-party professionals and users who have personally tested and compared said that the gap is far away.
Recently, I saw an example on the Internet:
The first thing investors do when they wake up is to ask the relevant entrepreneurs: "What is the difference between what you and OpenAI have done?" The entrepreneur replied: "Difference is worse than him." ”
This has happened to our group as well. When GPT-3 came out, a few students in our group came up with an idea, and several senior students were busy for several months, and then GPT-3.5 came out. With a little tweaking of the Prompts, the results are a few streets better than what we've worked so hard to do ourselves. I'm going to stop the project and tell everyone to stop it.
According to the trend, all those who want to rely on domain knowledge and OpenAI in the subdivision field are a dead end, at least in academia and small and medium-sized companies: as long as people find a willing partner, or can find a corresponding training set in the public domain (it doesn't need to be better than your hand, as long as it is not a few orders of magnitude difference), the rest is a dimensionality reduction strike.
The United States does not want any competitors in this area that threaten itself.
Recently, under pressure from the White House, the global computing power hegemon Nvidia has begun to stick the necks of domestic manufacturers on high-end GPU chips, trying to maintain the long-term lead of domestic companies in AI.
The crisis has also given birth to vitality, and some innovative enterprises in China, led by Huawei, are accelerating the 0-1 leap in some fields.
Among the A-shares, the biggest highlight since October is Huawei's industrial chain. Yesterday, some foreign media said that Baidu is buying artificial intelligence chips developed by Huawei on a large scale. Today, Zhou Hongyi also said that 360 purchased about 1,000 AI chips from Huawei and transplanted the AI framework to the Ascend 910B, which is a relief for 360.
According to the description of many industry insiders, Huawei already has products that can almost benchmark Nvidia A100.
Specific to A-shares, the main line of computing power will come out of two branches, one is Huawei's computing power, and the other is NVIDIA's industrial chain (optical module). This main line may alternate with the cooperation or confrontation between China and the United States in the field of science and technology, as well as the latest progress in science and technology between China and the United States in this area.
Economic recovery and risk release
At present, whether the real estate industry can release risks and stabilize has become the key for many researchers to observe whether China's macro economy can recover.
Some macro researchers said that as long as the two core drivers of internal and external circulation, real estate and net exports, do not improve significantly, it is difficult to have a strong recovery. After all, there is no new growth engine that can replace the broad real estate sector, which accounts for nearly 30% of GDP, and the land transfer fee, which accounts for 60% of local finance.
In the past two days, the two major real estate companies have become popular again, one is Country Garden and the other is Vanke.
Today, a news article about a government department/agency asking Ping An of China to acquire Country Garden Holdings Co., Ltd. and inherit its debts rushed to the hot search, and then Ping An issued a statement saying that the report is completely inconsistent with the facts, and Ping An has never received any relevant requests from relevant government departments/agencies.
A few days ago, the price of Vanke's existing US dollar bonds continued to fall, and the yield to maturity of many bonds deviated significantly from the coupon rate. Subsequently, Shenzhen Metro and Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission urgently "domineering" in solidarity with Vanke and fought back against the bears.
There is no wind and no waves, these rumors must not be believed, nor can they be fully believed.
At present, the real estate industry has changed from the first half of a unilateral rise to the second half of a decline prevention. In such an environment, no company is not affected, especially those that have had the "three highs", and this impact should not be underestimated.
The first half of the property market is characterized by a unilateral rise in volume and price, all participants make profits, and there are no losers (if there is, then the future must be overdrawn, just need to be thrown away, and the real estate bubble). But in the second half, the characteristic is to pay for the kind of aggressiveness that "thousands of troops enter the property market" in the first half to prevent a rapid decline.
While the ups and downs of real estate policy will also bring structural transaction opportunities, it is clear that the real estate transition may take years to land, and the risk of local debt may take longer to absorb.
That means that China's economic recovery and risk management will also be a long-term process, in such a stage of macroeconomic uncertainty and instability, the valuation of equity assets will still be repeatedly affected and suppressed, but this does not affect the vigorous development of some structural markets.
annex
1
This week's small essay and related stock gains
Tuesday
1. Essay on optical module
An optical module company said in the anti-roadshow that Amazon's 400G demand will only rise from 400-500w to 1000w next year, and the share of suppliers is 40-50% of Xinyisheng and InnoLight each;
In addition, the feedback NVIDIA factory inspection may be accelerated recently;If according to the expectations after the upward revision,Considering the price reduction24 years of new Yisheng performance is expected to stand firm at 1.5 billion,800G factory inspection may be divided into a certain share is expected to contribute more flexibility,Short-term AI sector rebound sentiment also has a bonus。
New Yi Sheng small composition
On the same day, Xin Yisheng rose: +20% Zhongji Innolight rose: +8.51%
2. In the evening, Baidu purchased a small composition of Huawei's AI chip
The next day, Huawei's computing power rose sharply, Sichuan Changhong: +10%
Wednesday
Lithography machine small composition
1. The big fund (semiconductor phase III) will approve the money
2. HW will build a large fund wafer factory, and next week's semiconductor conference, the third phase of the fund will be directly allocated for investment, 90 billion
3. The Intellectual Property Bureau gave Shanghai a green channel to speed up the approval, and immediately showed the sword after approval
Semiconductor equipment rose sharply on the same day
Fullert: +20%, Tuojing Technology: +8%, AMEC: +4%