The effect of the lifting policy is gradually emerging, and the additional issuance of treasury bonds is conducive to consolidating the foundation of economic growth丨 Survey by the chief economist of Yicai
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In November 2023, the "CBN Chief Economist Confidence Index" released by the CBN Research Institute was 50.84, slightly lower than the previous month, but still maintained above the 50 line. Economists believe that the domestic economy will continue to repair moderately, and the effect of the lifting policy will gradually appear, and it is expected to achieve the annual growth target of "about 5%".
Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities said that reviving economic growth remains China's top priority. Ding Anhua of China Merchants Bank believes that the annual GDP growth rate is likely to exceed the expected target of "about 5%", reaching 5.2% under the baseline scenario.
The average forecast of the chief economists for the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October is -0.06%, and the average forecast of PPI year-on-year is -2.6%.
Wu Ge of Changjiang Securities believes that CPI may still hover around zero, and the year-on-year slope of PPI will slow down significantly in the fourth quarter.
The average forecast for the growth rate of industrial added value in October is 4.46%.
Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank expects the month-on-month growth rate of industrial production to slow down in October. However, due to the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to pick up slightly to about 4.7% from 4.5% in the previous month.
The average year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October is forecast to be 6.62%.
Lu Political Commissar of Industrial Bank said that the consumption tendency of residents across the country has been significantly restored, and the gradual release of excess savings accumulated before, coupled with the additional purchasing power released by the reduction of the interest rate of the existing housing loans, will constitute an important support for consumption, and the second half of the "N" shaped recovery is expected to continue.
In this forecast, economists expect that the financial data in October will fall from the previous month, the average forecast of new loans in October is 720.467 billion yuan, the average forecast of total social financing is 1.82 trillion yuan, and the average year-on-year growth rate of M2 is 10.29%, and the probability of changes in the benchmark interest rate of deposits and LPR interest rates in the coming month is small.
Lu Political Commissar of Industrial Bank believes that on the one hand, the overall credit growth rate in October was stable; On the other hand, the net financing of local government bonds accelerated significantly in October, and it is expected that the scale of government bond financing in a single month in October will exceed one trillion yuan again, both of which will support the scale of social financing. Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities said that the micro main body is expected to be gradually repaired, M1 began to slowly rise, M2 ran smoothly, and the expansion of government credit drove the growth rate of social finance upward.
On October 30, 2023, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1781. Economists expected the renminbi to depreciate to 7.2 against the dollar by the end of November, while they lowered their forecast for the end of the year to 7.13 from 7.06 at the end of last month.
Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank believes that the external depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate will continue. From a domestic point of view, the current momentum of the mainland's economic stabilization and improvement is being consolidated, which will support the RMB exchange rate.
The central government will issue an additional 1,000 billion yuan of 2023 treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, which economists believe can support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will consolidate the foundation for economic growth and prepare for the sound development of the economy next year.
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1. Confidence index: The confidence index in November was 50.84
In November 2023, the "CBN Chief Economist Confidence Index" released by the CBN Research Institute was 50.84, slightly lower than the previous month, but still maintained above the 50 line. Economists believe that the domestic economy will continue to repair moderately, and the effect of the lifting policy will gradually appear, and it is expected to achieve the annual growth target of "about 5%".
Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities said that from the perspective of the external environment, so far, most central banks led by the Federal Reserve have tightened monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged in November, bringing respite to the hard-hit bond market. Although it is too early to declare that the Fed has succeeded in curbing inflation, it is more important to recognize that "insufficient aggregate demand" is the main contradiction in China's economy at present, and there is no inflation risk in China. Therefore, regardless of the outlook for U.S. interest rates, reviving economic growth remains a top priority for China.
Ding Anhua of China Merchants Bank believes that the domestic economy has been moderately repaired, but the structure is differentiated. On the demand side, consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment constitute the main driving force for economic growth. Exports and real estate investment will continue to weigh on the economy. Looking ahead, as the real GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to rise further from a low base, and the annual GDP growth rate is likely to exceed the expected target of "about 5%", reaching 5.2% under the baseline scenario.
Zhou Xue of Mizuho Securities believes that the economic data in October may be affected by some holiday and seasonal factors, but believes that the economic fundamentals benefit from the positive fiscal and real estate policies continue to improve. She believes that there is still a need for RRR cuts to help the interbank market replenish liquidity after the government's large-scale bond issuance.
Wang Han of Industrial Securities said that at present, the economy has entered a trend of natural bottoming out from the bottom, and the introduction of medium and long-term top-level policies is expected to maintain good economic operation. The issuance of an additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds in the fourth quarter may further promote the economic recovery in the fourth quarter and the strengthening of the economy next year. At the same time, in order to cooperate with the issuance of treasury bonds, there may be a RRR cut or an increase in MLF in the currency. He said that the follow-up Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee, local government debt, and real estate-related policies are worth paying attention to.
2. Prices: The average year-on-year forecast of CPI in October is -0.06%, and the average year-on-year forecast of PPI is -2.6%
The average forecast of economists for the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October 2023 is -0.06%, slightly lower than the 0% data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in September. Among them, Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities gave the highest forecast value of 0.1%, and Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered Bank and Lu Political Commissar of Industrial Bank gave the lowest forecast value of -0.2%.
The average forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in October was -2.6%, slightly lower than the previous month's value (-2.5%) released by the Bureau of Statistics. In the survey, the highest forecast value of this indicator is -1.8%, which comes from ICBC International Chengshi; The lowest forecast is -2.9%, which comes from Zhou Xue of Mizuho Securities, Wu Ge of Changjiang Securities and Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered Bank.
Wu Ge of Changjiang Securities believes that the global geopolitical risk index has dropped significantly, and the decline in aggregate demand can dominate the trend of international commodity prices. The domestic incremental policy has supported the prices of non-ferrous metals and black products, but the month-on-month increase in the off-season of winter construction is limited. There is a high probability of a warm winter this year, and coal consumption demand may be weaker than in the same period in history. The year-on-year recovery slope of PPI in the fourth quarter will slow down significantly. The service consumption pulse caused by the holiday effect in the previous period has ended, and the CPI may still hover around zero.
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Best Economists' October Forecast (CPI) for September 2023:
Xu Sitao: 0
Zhang Jun: 0.1%
Best Forecasters for September 2023 Economists' October Forecast (PPI):
Wen Bin: -2.8%
Wu Ge: -2.9%
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3. Total retail sales of consumer goods: the average consumption growth rate in October is forecast to be 6.62%
The average year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October is forecast to be 6.62%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from the 5.5% announced value in September. Among them, the maximum value of 7.7% came from the political commissar Lu of Industrial Bank, and Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities gave the minimum value of 5.1%.
Lu Political Commissar of Industrial Bank said that the consumption tendency of residents across the country has been significantly restored, and the gradual release of excess savings accumulated before, coupled with the additional purchasing power released by the reduction of the interest rate of the existing housing loans, will constitute an important support for consumption, and the second half of the "N" shaped recovery is expected to continue.
Wu Ge of Changjiang Securities believes that thanks to the low base of last year's "epidemic prevention optimization", the year-on-year growth rate will rebound in an all-round way, but it will fall month-on-month. The sales of commercial housing fell to a historical low again, and the listings of second-hand houses rose. The cash flow of real estate companies is still deteriorating, and the downturn in the land market continues. There is a lag between the issuance of additional treasury bonds and the promotion of projects, and the effect is limited during the year. Household prepayments eased but remained at historically high levels. The popularity of residents' travel has dropped to a half-year low, and consumption will remain at a low level month-on-month.
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Best Forecasters for September 2023: Economists' October Forecast (YoY Retail Sales of Consumer Goods):
Commissar Lu: 7.7%
Wen Bin: 7%
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4. Industrial added value: the average growth rate forecast in October is 4.46%
According to the survey results, the average year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October is forecast to be 4.46%, slightly lower than the 4.5% announced data in September. Among them, Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities gave a minimum value of 3.6%, and ICBC International Cheng Shi gave a maximum value of 5.3%.
Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank said that the official manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2% to 49.5% in October, with an average decline of 0.3 percentage points in the same period in history. Among them, the production index fell from 52.7% to 50.9%, and the new orders index fell from 50.5% to 49.5%, both supply and demand sides weakened, and the demand side turned to contraction again. From the perspective of high-frequency indicators of operating rates, the operating rates of semi-steel tires and all-steel tires of automobile tires, blast furnaces, as well as PTA and polyester filament yarns all fell from the previous month, including both seasonal factors and weakening demand. Overall, the month-on-month growth rate of industrial production is expected to slow in October. However, due to the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to pick up slightly to about 4.7% from 4.5% in the previous month.
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Best Forecasts for September 2023 Economists' October Forecast (Industrial Value Added YoY):
Zheng Houcheng: 4.6%
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5. Growth rate of fixed asset investment: the average forecast is 3.14%
The average forecast of economists for the growth rate of fixed asset investment in October is 3.14%, of which Li Wenlong of Uniasia Digital Research Institute gave the highest value of 3.5%, and Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities gave the lowest forecast value of 2.8%.
Lu Political Commissar of Industrial Bank said that the operating rate of major industrial products in October 2023 was mixed. The high level of crude steel production fell but did not change much compared with the same period last year, the operating rate of semi-steel tires continued to maintain a high level after the holiday, the operating rate of the upstream and downstream of PTA showed a large differentiation, and the daily consumption of coal in the eight coastal provinces fell slightly year-on-year. Considering last year's low base (affected by the epidemic and other factors), the industrial added value increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year or from the previous month.
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Best Forecasts for September 2023: Economists' October Forecast (Cumulative Growth Rate of Fixed Asset Investment):
Ding Shuang: 3.2%
Wu Ge: 3.1%
Xu Sitao: 3.1%
Zhu Haibin: 3.1%
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6. Real estate development investment: the average growth rate forecast in October is -8.98%
According to the survey results, the average forecast for the cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment in October was -8.98%. Among the economists who participated in the survey, Ding Anhua of China Merchants Bank gave the highest value of -7.9%, and Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities and Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities gave the lowest value of -9.3%.
Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank expects that the cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment will narrow from -9.1% in January ~ September to about -8.9%. He said that high-frequency data showed that the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in October fell by 2.6% year-on-year, a sharp decrease from -22.3% in the previous month, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, indicating that residents' demand for housing has not improved significantly, and the year-on-year decline is mainly driven by a low base. The land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities increased by 65% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since February, and the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land has improved. The decline in development investment is expected to narrow slightly.
7. Foreign trade: The announced value of the trade surplus in October was 56.53 billion US dollars
On November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in US dollar terms, in October this year, the total import and export volume of the mainland was 493.13 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.5%. Among them, exports were 274.83 billion US dollars, down 6.4%; imports were 218.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 3%; The trade surplus was $56.53 billion, below economists' expectations of $81.189 billion.
Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities said that in the context of the marginal weakening of overseas demand and the negative growth rate of mainland exports, the monthly value of mainland exports in October 2022 decreased by 24.7 billion US dollars compared with the previous value, which formed a certain support for the year-on-year growth of the export amount in October 2023. In terms of domestic demand, new orders fell below the boom and wither line again after 2 months, and considering that the import index recorded 47.50 in October, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous value, hitting a new low in the past 3 months, indicating that the current macroeconomic demand in the mainland is still relatively weak, but considering that the monthly value of the mainland's imports in October 2022 decreased by 24.2 billion US dollars compared with the previous value, it is expected that the month-on-year import value of the mainland in October will also face some support.
8. New loans: The average forecast of new loans in October is 720.467 billion yuan
Economists expect that the new loans in October 2023 will drop from the value announced last month (2.31 trillion yuan) to 720.467 billion yuan, with the minimum value of 400 billion yuan coming from Xie Yaxuan of China Merchants Securities and the maximum value of 1.0 trillion yuan coming from Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities.
9. Total social financing: The average forecast of total social financing in October is 1.82 trillion yuan
According to the survey results, the average forecast of total social financing in October was 1.82 trillion yuan, lower than the September data released by the central bank (4.12 trillion yuan). Among them, Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities gave a maximum value of 2.2 trillion yuan, and ICBC International Cheng Shi gave a minimum value of 1.32 trillion yuan.
Lu Political Commissar of Industrial Bank believes that in terms of social finance, on the one hand, the overall credit growth rate in October was stable; On the other hand, the net financing of local government bonds accelerated significantly in October, and it is expected that the scale of government bond financing in a single month in October will exceed one trillion yuan again, both of which will support the scale of social financing. On the whole, the new social finance in October is expected to be 2.03 trillion yuan, and the corresponding year-on-year growth rate of social finance is 9.1%. In addition, on October 24, the sixth meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress voted to pass the resolution of the State Council on the issuance of additional treasury bonds and the adjustment plan of the central budget in 2023, and the central finance will issue an additional 1,000 billion yuan of treasury bonds in 2023 in the fourth quarter of this year to be managed as special treasury bonds. It is worth noting that the issuance of trillions of special treasury bonds will be completed in 2023, and it is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in November and December will exceed the trillion level.
10. M2: The average growth rate forecast in October is 10.29%
Economists expect the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in October to be lower than the level announced by the central bank in September (10.3%), with an average forecast of 10.29%. Among them, Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities and Xie Yaxuan of China Merchants Securities gave a maximum value of 10.5%, and Zhou Xue of Mizuho Securities and Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered Bank gave a minimum value of 10%.
Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities said that the micro main body is expected to be gradually repaired, M1 began to slowly rise, M2 ran smoothly, and the expansion of government credit drove the growth rate of social finance upward.
Ding Anhua of China Merchants Bank believes that on the money supply side, the year-on-year increase in corporate deposits and the continued return of funds to the treasury dragged down the year-on-year growth rate of M2 by 0.3 percentage points to 10.3%.
11. Interest rate & reserve ratio: It is very unlikely that the interest rate and deposit requirement level will change in November 2023
In this forecast, 10 economists made forecasts for the level of interest rates in November. They all believe that there is less chance of a change in the level of the benchmark deposit rate and the LPR lending rate in November. At the same time, two of the 10 economists who gave forecasts for the reserve requirement ratio of large financial institutions predicted that there was a possibility of a downward revision in the deposit requirement level of large financial institutions in November, while other economists believed that the indicator was less likely to change.
12. Exchange rate: The expected average RMB exchange rate at the end of 2023 is 7.13
Economists expect the central parity of the renminbi to depreciate to 7.2 against the US dollar by the end of November 2023 at 7.1781 in the interbank foreign exchange market, while they lowered their forecast for the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar to 7.13 at the end of the year from 7.06 at the end of last month.
Wen Bin of Minsheng Bank believes that from an external point of view, since October, the rising momentum of the US dollar index has weakened, and the overall trend is high and volatile, and the external depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has weakened. As the U.S. inflation rate has been steadily declining, the pressure on the job market has eased to some extent, and the economy remains resilient, and the U.S. economy is generally evolving in the direction that the Fed wants. With the restrictive nature of high interest rates already being reflected, the Fed chose to remain on hold in November. Although Powell said at the press conference that a return to rate hikes is not out of the question, and judging from the September dot plot, the Fed does have room for itself to raise interest rates once, but this may be to stabilize inflation expectations, and the market is more inclined to believe that the Fed is over raising interest rates. However, with the European Central Bank pausing interest rate hikes, the pattern of monetary policy phased "European eagle and American dove" has also come to an end, in the economic trend of the United States and Europe is weak, the future dollar index may maintain a high operating trend, and even does not rule out the possibility of upward movement, which means that the external depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate will continue.
From a domestic point of view, the economy in the third quarter opened low and went high, and the overall situation was better than expected, of which the industry stabilized, the service industry accelerated, the consumption growth rate rebounded significantly, the infrastructure investment margin stabilized, the manufacturing investment continued to rebound, and the income and employment situation of residents improved, but the real estate remained weak. In October, the manufacturing PMI prosperity level declined, and the non-manufacturing business activity index remained in the expansion range. On the whole, the bottom of the mainland's economic growth and inflation has basically formed, and the momentum of stabilization and improvement is being consolidated, which will support the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, since mid-to-late September, the regulatory authorities have significantly strengthened their efforts to stabilize the exchange rate, which will also help stabilize the expectations of the foreign exchange market, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in November, fluctuating in both directions in the range of 7.2-7.3.
13. Official foreign exchange reserves: The average forecast at the end of October was US$3,109.045 billion
In this survey, economists' average forecast for the size of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves at the end of October was US$3,109.045 billion, slightly lower than the data released at the end of September of US$3,115.07 billion.
XIV. Policies
Wu Ge of Changjiang Securities said that when there is an "illusion" of year-on-year in the economy, even if it weakens month-on-month, the policy often retains its determination, not to mention that the pressure on the annual target is not great. The central government's leverage can partially hedge the squeeze on incremental infrastructure from short-term bonds, but the easing of real estate has weakened, and land revenue is still a drag on finance. The renminbi exchange rate has stabilized, but the interest rate differential between China and the United States has also constrained the funding rate. The low base and the issuance of government bonds will increase social finance. The spread between bills and certificates of deposit declined, indicating weak credit.
Li Wenlong, Uniasia Institute of Digital Economy, believes that the current economic operation is facing downward pressure from falling prices, insufficient confidence in private investment, and sluggish real estate market, which has brought challenges to economic growth and local finance. Although the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds will help ease local fiscal pressure and promote investment, more comprehensive measures are needed to stabilize the economy. The first is to attach importance to effectively activating private economic investment, such as activating the vitality and confidence of private economic investment from the perspective of strengthening the legal guarantee for the development of the private economy; The second is to effectively and prudently eliminate the systemic risks of the real estate market, implement the reasonable financing needs of the real estate market, and gradually eliminate the systemic risks in the recovery of the industry; Third, it is necessary to make great efforts to reverse the chaos in the stock market and further standardize the mechanism for issuing and withdrawing stocks.
Xie Yaxuan of China Merchants Securities believes that the economic growth rate is recovering to close to the potential growth rate, and the next stage is expected to maintain endogenous recovery. In terms of macroeconomic policies, after the central government began to accelerate the increase in leverage, it mainly focused on the control of local hidden debts and the marginal changes in the comprehensive financial strength of the broad government.
15. Macroeconomic hot issues
The central government will issue an additional 1,000 billion yuan of 2023 treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, which economists believe will be able to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will consolidate the foundation for economic growth and prepare for good economic development next year.
ICBC International Cheng Shi said that the additional issuance of treasury bonds can support the recovery of post-disaster economic activities; buffer the risk of local debt and strengthen the role of active fiscal support; We will further support economic recovery and promote economic growth.
Zhang Jun of Galaxy Securities believes that it is relatively rare to issue additional treasury bonds and increase the deficit rate at the end of the year, especially in the context of the rebound of economic indicators in the third quarter. Specifically, there is an objective need for post-disaster reconstruction this year, and the additional treasury bonds can first help the reconstruction and economic recovery of the disaster-stricken areas, and directly stimulate the growth of local infrastructure investment, focusing on drainage and flood control projects related to water conservancy construction and farmland construction. After the issuance of the new debt funds, it will be able to quickly convert into cash flow of construction enterprises. Secondly, the increase in policy intensity will drive effective demand and stabilize market confidence. Since the investment of 1 trillion yuan of new treasury bonds has been completed this year and the first half of next year, it means that the investment of 500 billion yuan can be increased in the fourth quarter, which can pull about 0.08 percentage points within the year and about 0.1 percentage points in the first half of next year.
Zheng Houcheng of Yingda Securities believes that the issuance of additional treasury bonds is likely to play a strong supporting role in the growth of infrastructure investment, but the growth rate of real estate investment is relatively limited, he believes that the additional issuance of treasury bonds has a strong "right medicine" characteristics, and there is still a large room for growth in related fields, and it is expected that the strength of the increase is strong, and the probability of the infrastructure industry, as well as the growth rate of infrastructure investment play a strong supporting role. On the other hand, the real estate industry chain is likely to benefit from the spillover effect of the additional issuance of treasury bonds on the infrastructure sector, but in general, the logic of the real estate market is not completely consistent with the logic of the infrastructure sector, which makes the additional issuance of treasury bonds have a relatively limited effect on the real estate industry chain and the growth rate of real estate investment.
Ding Anhua of China Merchants Bank said that the additional issuance of treasury bonds will consolidate momentum and accumulate strength in the coming year. Since this year's economic growth is likely to have "reached the target", although the additional issuance of treasury bonds will be implemented within the year, the goal and effect of its role will be more reflected in next year. On the one hand, the issuance of additional treasury bonds will help to "boost confidence" and "stabilize growth", and it is expected that the center of the mainland's GDP growth target next year may continue to anchor at "5%". The issuance of "real money" treasury bonds by the central government has responded to market concerns in a timely and effective manner, which will help boost market confidence, ease the financial pressure of local governments, continue the momentum of high infrastructure growth, and form a multiplier effect to promote the continuous return of economic growth to the potential level. The financial situation is also expected to improve, and the additional issuance of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds will drive the growth rate of social financing stock to rise by about 0.3 percentage points this year, and boost financing demand next year. Monetary policy will be coordinated with fiscal policy, or increase the supply of base money to stabilize the volatility of the capital market, and the probability of a RRR cut in the fourth quarter will also increase accordingly.
On the other hand, the "novelty" of the policy tool may mark the beginning of the transformation of policy thinking and the optimization and adjustment of the debt structure of the central and local governments. First, the central government will make more efforts to alleviate the financial and debt difficulties of local governments. Considering the current fiscal revenue and debt pressure of local governments, it is still possible to further strengthen the policy in the future. The second is to unify debts into the budget deficit and standardize management, so as to effectively prevent and resolve debt risks. The third is to focus on improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy.
Zhou Xue of Mizuho Securities believes that special treasury bonds can help reduce the financial burden of local governments, especially when the government's income from land sales is not ideal. She said that the issuance of special treasury bonds may be the prelude to optimizing the debt structure of the central and local governments.
Wang Han of Industrial Securities said that the additional issuance of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter will be included in the deficit in 2023, and the deficit rate will increase to about 3.8%, which may open up space for future fiscal efforts.
Xie Yaxuan of China Merchants Securities said that the deficit rate will be raised this year, and most of the funds will be implemented next year, which is conducive to achieving a higher level of economic growth next year. If the deficit rate continues to exceed 3 percent next year, it will be a further supplement to the central government's financial resources.
List of 14 economists in this issue of the "CBN Chief Economist Monthly Survey" (in alphabetical order):
Cheng Shi: Head of Research Department, Managing Director and Chief Economist of ICBC International
Ding Anhua: Chief Economist of China Merchants Bank
Ding Shuang: Chief Economist of Standard Chartered Bank Greater China
Li Wenlong: Chief Economist of Uniasia Digital Economy Research Institute
Political Commissar Lu: Chief Economist of Industrial Bank
Wang Han: Chief Economist of Industrial Securities
Wen Bin: Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank
Wu Ge: Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities
Xie Yaxuan: Deputy Director of China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center
Zhang Jun: Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities
Xu Sitao is Chief Economist of Deloitte China
Zheng Houcheng: Chief Macroeconomist of Yingda Securities Company
Zhou Xue: Asia economist at Mizuho Securities
Zhu Haibin is Chief Economist of J.P. Morgan China
(Source of the title map of this article: Yicai)
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Text | He Xiao is a researcher at the CBN Research Institute