Zhang Kaihan: 11.7 Risk reduction, supply reduction, gold and crude oil today's market trend operation suggestions

　　As an investor, you should know that investment cannot be risk-free, and it is a matter of time before you don't follow the rules of the game and get out. What we should do is to be steady, cautious, pursue the success rate, and formulate strict trading disciplines to ensure that we can get a piece of the market that is better than the battlefield. I never promise any investor profits, because I have come from this road, I know the terrible risk, in my place, I only emphasize the control of risk, investment must start from the control of risk, only control the risk, profit is possible, only control the risk, profit is also natural. Every choice strategy I give to customers will be given after extremely careful analysis, if you want to know how to make a single is very simple, if you want to know how to do a single is a complex process, then please be patient. This is responsible for you, but also responsible for me, come in here and don't suspect what you lack, in fact, you don't lack anything, just lack a good teacher.

　　【Gold Today's Market Trend Analysis】

　　During the Asian session on Tuesday (November 7), spot gold fell weakly and fell again; Gold prices are consolidating above key support as US Treasury yields rise and sentiment caps improve. Following last Friday's sell-off, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trying to recover. IG client sentiment shows retail traders overwhelmingly bullish on gold and silver. After another attempt to break through the $2,000 per ounce mark on Friday, gold prices fell back about $15 on Monday. US Treasury yields recovered slightly and risk appetite improved, limiting gains in precious commodities.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) traded near $1,985 an ounce on Monday, retreating from Friday's high of more than $2,000 an ounce as long-term US bond yields rebounded. Despite the fact that the political situation in the Middle East has not yet been resolved, there seems to be growing optimism that a broader regional conflict could be avoided due to the waning safe-haven appeal. The USD remains weak as market participants currently believe that the US labor market is accommodative, which will make Fed policymakers advocate keeping interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% until the end of 2023. This week's economic data is not rich enough, but a series of speeches from Fed officials need to be taken seriously.

　　Gold yesterday continued to shock and fall back correction, the daily chart of the small black line closed, local stagflation for correction in the middle of the correction, from the daily K-line chart, last Friday a wave of probe cross K-line closed lower, the first trading day of the week to receive a small black line. The daily upward trend shows a slight slowdown, coupled with the previous highs of 2008-2003 have not been able to form a breakthrough, the high point does not break the space can not be opened, and the local formation of a callback correction is also reasonable, the correction method has a strong correction and a weak correction, a strong correction to sort out instead of a fall, a weak correction is to cooperate with the space retracement.

The 4-hour chart due to the local probe retracement method, a long break through the high failed, and the current pullback to the low point of 1970-1953 to seek support, from the short-term structure alone, there is still room for local adjustment. Later, it depends on where it can be stabilized, and the callback space in this position can be large or small, depending on the transformation of the pattern. Whether it is a downward rebound and a strong recovery or a downward downward conversion. Pay attention to the structural changes of the daily candlesticks. At present, the small cycle is weak in a high-level pullback. There is room for further downward correction in the short term. On the whole, today's gold short-term operation ideas Zhang Kaihan suggested that the rebound should be short-based, supplemented by the callback, the upper short-term focus on the 1985-1990 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus on the 1960-1965 first-line support.

　　【Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis Today】

　　During the Asian session on Tuesday (November 7), U.S. crude oil continued to fluctuate weakly; Oil prices edged higher as fears of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve eased, although expectations for several economic data this week have made traders nervous. Major suppliers Saudi Arabia and Russia have said they will continue to cut production until the end of the year, signaling a tighter oil market, which is also encouraged by the prospect of tighter supply. "This announcement shows that Saudi Arabia is working to tighten the market and raise prices," the analysts said. Market analysts said the cuts could be extended into the first quarter of 2024 due to "seasonal weakness in oil demand at the beginning of each year, ongoing economic growth concerns and the goal of oil producers and OPEC+ to support a stable and balanced oil market."

"Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an ironclad agreement to maintain the same supply constraints until the end of the year, but demand for fuel remains stronger than most analysts expected, keeping good bids below crude prices," the analysts said. "Oil prices rebounded after both benchmarks fell about 6% in the week ended Nov. 3 as supply concerns over tensions in the Middle East eased. Analysts said production would be enough to keep gasoline prices flat, while demand was weaker than production cuts.

　　Crude oil yesterday continued the small yin line retracement to close lower, even the yin weak finishing, although did not break the low, but after the rebound still closed at a low level, the daily line broke the yin and yang swap of the shock style, in the slow downward finishing momentum. It's just that the acceleration of the break still lacks momentum, and it is currently gaining momentum. Yesterday, it was shorted at 82.0-82.20 to accurately capture the entry position of the highest point of the day. The 4-hour Tubulin Road closed in parallel, and the pressure on the upper band was concentrated at 83.50-83.70, which is also the critical point for a short-term step decline. Bears remain below this level, while the lower band coincides with last week's lows. At present, in the midst of the momentum, yesterday's rebound was under pressure near the middle track, and today's short-term continues to look at the lower track first. Break the position and look further down the space. On the contrary, the upper critical point is focused on 83.70. On the whole, Zhang Kaihan suggested that the short-term operation of crude oil today should be based on the rebound high, supplemented by a low callback, with a short-term focus on the 82-82.5 first-line resistance and a short-term focus on the 78.8-79.3 first-line support below.

　　Kaihan Zhang's analysis team's investment risk management:

　　(1) There must be a stop loss, even if it is a large stop loss, the stop loss must be right, wrong is right, no stop loss is wrong, right is also wrong, unconditional stop loss.

　　(2) Do not increase the position of loss, for example, within the scope of your position, if you are wrong, do not blindly increase the position, do not take chances to reduce the cost, choose the advantage point to place an order, if the direction is wrong, the more you lose, so that you are directly exposed to the risk (if the direction is correct but the entry point is not good, it is advisable to increase the position, but you also need a method, and you can not blindly increase the position on the market fluctuation of one point).

　　(3) Stop loss on the same day, if you lose three orders in a row, you will not trade on the same day.

　　(4) The position should be light, and it is best to control the position within 10%.

　　(5) Maintain consistency in positions for a period of time, don't have too many positions for a while, and maintain consistent coherence.

　　Message: There is no risk in investment itself, but there is risk in out-of-control investment. Don't use your luck to challenge the market, luck is there, don't expect a second time if you encounter it. Learn to stop loss, stop loss is more important than take profit, because at any time capital preservation is the first, profit is the second; The ultimate purpose of stop-loss is to preserve strength, improve capital utilization and efficiency, and avoid small mistakes from becoming big mistakes, or even leading to the annihilation of the entire army. Stop-loss cannot avoid risk, but it can avoid greater unexpected risks, so stop-loss techniques are something that every investor should master. Mr. Kaihan reminded that stop loss is the lifeline of investment, and don't lose more than you lose because of small losses. Remember, when you really know how to control risk, you can turn a profit. People are mutual, trust is the beginning of cooperation, the road knows the horsepower, and the people will see the hearts of the people over time!

　　This article was originally contributed by Zhang Kaihan, and has in-depth research on crude oil, gold, silver and other commodities. Due to the delay of network push, the above content is a personal suggestion, due to the timeliness of network posting, the suggestion is for reference only, and the operation is at your own risk!