At 24 o'clock tonight, domestic oil prices may be lowered again! The global pattern is chaotic, why oil prices are falling instead of rising

Rank: Welcome to Reason.

Today is November 7th, and at 24 o'clock today, mainland oil prices are expected to be lowered again. Because today is also the day of oil price adjustment, and this time we have fallen three times in a row, which is of course a good thing for car owners. For us ordinary people, we also know that gasoline is the main artery of industry is blood, and the price of gasoline will fall, so of course the logistics price will also be reduced, which is also a good thing for our daily life.

Especially the Double 11 is coming, especially in the past month or so, oil prices have been lowered three times in a row, although each reduction is not much money, a little more than a dime per liter of oil, and a refueling will save 5 yuan or 10 yuan, but I think the trend is very good. Especially in today's global chaos, what does it mean that oil prices can continue to fall? It shows that everyone knows that there is no chaos anywhere.

As everyone knows, there has been chaos in Palestine and Israel since October, and to be honest, everyone in the Middle East is most worried about it. Why? Because more than 1/3 of the world's oil production capacity is in the Middle East, especially this year is 2023, friends who are familiar with history know that exactly 50 years ago, in October 1973, there was an oil crisis that swept the world, what was the situation at that time? These countries in the Middle East can't defeat Israel when they join forces, and Israel has the support of the United States behind it, so these countries in the Middle East think that my weak people also have weapons, what do I use to protect myself? I use oil weapons.

Isn't the United States strongly supporting Israel? Simply I embargo your oil, which stunned Lao Mei at once. The United States has long been known as a country on wheels, with 300 million Americans owning 300 million cars, and oil is an absolute necessity for ordinary Americans. Especially in the United States, many middle-class people live in the countryside and live in the suburbs, and they commute more than 50 kilometers each way to work.

As a result, a Middle Eastern country imposed an embargo on US oil, and the price of oil in the United States soared and immediately doubled, which affected the lives of ordinary Americans, and even affected the consumption habits of an entire generation of Americans. What kind of car did Americans buy when they bought a car in the past? It is not uncommon to buy a luxury car with a large displacement, and it is not uncommon to have a 5.0 or 6.0 displacement. However, after the oil crisis, the Americans realized that the price of gasoline was likely to be high, and the United States would also be stuck, which gave Japanese cars and Korean cars a chance.

Japanese cars have attracted a large number of North American consumers with their fuel-efficient and durable leather. In other words, if there is no oil crisis, then American consumers feel that oil is cheaper than water, and of course pursue large-displacement self-priming cars. Therefore, after the resurgence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October this year, many people are very worried, saying that there is a possibility that history will repeat itself 50 years ago. Especially when the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is becoming more and more serious, many economists predict that there is a risk of spillover from the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and if all sides do not calm down, then it is possible that the international oil price will soar to $160 a barrel.

This situation reminds us of the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict two years ago, when oil soared to $130 a barrel and the price of natural gas also rose. To be honest, today is not the same as 50 years ago, when the mainland was not an industrial power, and at that time the mainland produced more oil than it consumed. So we don't worry about the oil embargo, the oil crisis at all.

But today is really different, today the mainland has slowly grown into the world's largest oil demand country, we are the world's factory, we are infrastructure maniacs, we need a lot of energy all the time. Therefore, it is clear that if the international oil price soars, it will not only have an impact on our industrial production, but also on the lives of ordinary people.

So for more than a month, we have been really worried, will this Palestinian-Israeli conflict catch fire at the city gate and affect the fish in the pond? However, for more than a month, we are pleased to see that international oil prices have been stable and declining. In particular, Saudi Arabia and Russia, two major oil producers, are not optimistic about the outlook. In the last two days, the two countries have repeatedly announced their plans to cut production, and they have each said that they will voluntarily cut oil production by millions of barrels per day by the end of this year.

Why? Because as oil producers, they are well aware that it may be difficult for global oil prices to rise in the next six months. So if they want to maintain their income, they must actively reduce oil production to create instability in supply and demand, and then keep global oil prices relatively high. What is High? Today, the global oil price is $80 a barrel, which is already high for Saudi Arabia and Russia, and they are worried that if production is not cut, global oil prices will fall further to $60 or even $40 a barrel.

In other words, the major oil producers are aware that the future of global oil prices may not be an upward space, but a downward trend. Why? Although the Palestinians and Israelis have been fighting fiercely for more than a month, have you noticed? Many neighboring countries have condemned Israel with one word, and many countries have even unceremoniously said that Israel is the executioner of war criminals.

But the problem is that they are almost just talking about it, but they don't actually do anything. It has been more than a week since the Israeli army moved into Gaza and began its ground offensive. Israel is likely to continue to win in the future, and the United States has actually had several rounds of negotiations with the Arab countries, even Mahmoud Abbas in Palestine, and many countries are actually talking about the aftermath of Gaza now. Even the United States intends to hand over Gaza to Palestinian Mahmoud Abbas, or send a multinational force into it for peacekeeping.

In other words, the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is likely to subside quickly in the next few weeks, although in the future we say that for the Jews, the seeds of hatred they planted will continue to take root and grow strongly, and Israel may face many terrorist attacks in the future, but at least this round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may end relatively peacefully. And there is no risk of war spillover. Then everyone is not worried about saying that the Middle East is in chaos, and that Middle Eastern countries are using oil as a weapon again, and that Middle Eastern countries are fighting, or carrying out an oil embargo, causing global oil prices to soar.

To be honest, the world has been in chaos in the past two years, who would have thought that the epidemic has not ended, the war has started again, and there are conflicts in multiple hot spots. In this state, as an industrial country, as a big exporter, of course, we seek stability, we don't want global chaos, if chaos is chaotic, energy prices will soar, which is not conducive to doing business, and it is not conducive to our exports.

Therefore, the Palestinian-Israeli situation has been relatively stable for more than a month, and global oil prices have not exploded, which shows that most countries still hope that we will maintain a state of peace. Moreover, many countries have also realized why international oil prices have fallen instead of rising despite the threat of war? This is because due to the impact of the epidemic war, the global economy is not doing well, so the demand has dropped significantly.

This reason is actually very simple, when the global economy is booming, then the demand for energy resources will continue to expand, and then the price of energy resources will rise. However, in the past two years, the global economy has encountered a crisis, with Japan running an export deficit for 22 consecutive months, and Germany, and many European countries represented by Germany, experiencing economic recession for two consecutive quarters. The United States, on the other hand, has stopped raising interest rates in the past two months after more than a dozen consecutive rounds of interest rate hikes.

The entire market is in a relatively sluggish state, so it is the reduction in demand that makes international oil prices continue to fall, and oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia can only make painful decisions to reduce production to maintain the current oil prices. Therefore, more and more people are realizing that we need peace, we need development, we need economic growth, we don't need epidemics and wars, otherwise if the world continues to be chaotic, demand will drop sharply, and oil prices may fall!