The second-tier cities that have flown away are full of grievances from workers

A city's "successology" should focus on retaining people, not just grabbing people.

Written by丨Xiong Zhi

Are those young people who have fled the first-tier cities doing well in the second-tier cities (or "new first-tier cities")?

If you throw this question on social media, you will probably receive a lot of negative answers. In the past, it was said that it was too difficult for first-tier cities to escape from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but now second-tier cities seem to be rolling up, full of grievances from workers.

Even Chengdu, which is known for its comfort, is losing its composure. For example, one author wrote:

Working six days a week, continuing to work overtime in the early morning, waiting for three subways in the morning rush hour... It has become a more realistic image of Chengdu in the eyes of ordinary workers.

After the first-tier cities, are the new first-tier cities also losing their cost performance?

01

The simple fact is that the most direct reason for all volumes, often because of the large number of people.

When there are more people taking the public examination, the road to the system becomes a single-plank bridge crossed by thousands of troops. And when a city has a steady stream of foreign population, floating population, local aborigines, foreign graduates and working elderly people compete for jobs, it is difficult for the city to think about it.

In the past two years, many people have complained that second-tier cities are also difficult to treat, which is not a hypocrisy or delusion. In fact, in the context of the first-tier cities beginning to loosen their functions, the second-tier cities have become the main battlefield for absorbing new people, and their population inflow rate is beating the first-tier cities.

In 2022, the permanent population of the four major first-tier cities will have a historic collective negative growth, with a total decrease of about 275,000 people. Second-tier cities such as Changsha, Hangzhou, and Hefei have all achieved an increase of about 170,000. The top three population growth companies in 2021 were Chengdu, Hangzhou and Nanchang. In the developed Yangtze River Delta, the largest population growth was in Hangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, and then Shanghai.

▲Hangzhou Qianjiang Century City (Photo/Glacier)

Compared with abstract numbers, the feeling of first-line city drifting will be more intuitive. Endless overtime, unattainable housing prices, and spending levels that often empty their wallets pale in the face of the advantages of more opportunities and fairer opportunities in big cities.

In search of a more comfortable way to live, many young people have fled from the first line to the second line. Hangzhou officials have revealed that "more than 20% of Hangzhou's newly introduced cross-city mobile talents are from Beijing and Shanghai".

Their idea of dimensionality reduction and survival stems from a simple logic: if you have the ability and resources of first-tier cities, you will not be able to survive if you go to second-tier cities with lower housing prices and slower pace?

But the reality seems to be very heart-wrenching. The flow from the first line to the second line has now become a collective choice, and this route of survival has become crowded.

Young people who have "fled" suddenly find that although housing prices in second-tier cities are lower, good job opportunities are also not easy to find.

Take Chengdu as an example, do you know what is the hottest job in Chengdu? Sale. According to a survey data that has been cited many times, "in April 2020, the recruitment demand for sales positions in Chengdu surpassed that of first-tier cities, ranking first among all key cities".

Not because the sales position is well-paid and attractive, but because it has a low threshold and can accommodate more young people who can't find a good job.

For some "large factories", placing core positions such as R&D and operation in first-tier cities, and labor-intensive positions such as sales and customer service in Chengdu, and recruiting cost-effective talents at low prices can save more costs.

As a result, "in the most expensive office building, make the most fierce sales calls" has become the working state of many "Rong Piao".

The feeling of involution brought by second-tier cities will also be magnified because the filter is broken.

When people go to first-tier cities, they usually say that they are going to work hard, but in cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Xi'an, the food and beautiful scenery on social media always give people a comfortable and casual feeling. And when it can't give a state of relaxation, the fatigue and internal friction of workers are often strengthened by the huge gap between ideals and reality.

02

So, why are so many people still rushing to second-tier cities? This is certainly not only because their filters are too powerful.

The floating population absorbed by second-tier cities is mainly from third- and fourth-tier small and medium-sized cities. Compared with small and medium-sized cities, second-tier cities, although they are also rolled, offer more possibilities and have a higher ceiling for personal development.

By the end of 2021, the number of cities in the country will reach 691, and the number of first- and second-tier cities will be less than a fraction. Although first- and second-tier cities have higher visibility, the basic market of the Chinese population is still in small and medium-sized cities, in sinking markets, rather than in first- and second-tier cities or the fifth ring road.

When many people take the resources of first-tier cities and go to second-tier cities to reduce dimensions and seek development, more floating population is leaving their hometowns and crossing from small cities to big cities to make a living.

Taking Chengdu as an example, many young people on the Internet complain about Chengdu rolls, and the annual per capita disposable income of urban residents is even lower than that of Foshan, Dongguan and other prefecture-level cities. Three or four thousand yuan of work, a bunch of people submit resumes, graduate degrees, and have to be strongly PUA by the company's HR.

▲ Chengdu Taikoo Li (Photo/Picture Insect Creative)

But if you think about it, if you go back to a small city, what kind of work can those young people with devalued academic qualifications do?

Sichuan, behind Chengdu, has a permanent population of more than 80 million, and more than 10 cities and prefectures have a GDP of less than 200 billion yuan in 2022.

If you want to go out and work, but you have the demand for employment close to home, then there is almost no other choice except Chengdu, and the provincial capital city is already the last retreat.

According to Qipu data, Chengdu's floating population is 8.4596 million, of which 1.4936 million are inter-provincial inflows, while 6.966 million are intra-provincial floating populations.

First-tier cities siphon the whole country, and second-tier cities siphon the whole province. This phenomenon is quite prominent in the central and western regions, because under the pattern of strong provincial capitals, it is basically a single city that dominates, and the provincial capitals have inherited the dream of a large number of low-tier city workers to get rich.

Therefore, in the vast second-tier cities, there is a contradictory landscape: after the filter of comfort and comfort is broken, on the one hand, a large number of migrant workers cry out for difficulty, and on the other hand, the foreign population continues to pour in, forming a state of "siege".

03

Although second-tier cities maintain a strong demographic appeal, this attraction is largely the result of a single choice - if the first-tier cities can't stay, then where else can they go without going to the provincial capital?

Taking root in a big city is certainly not the fate of everyone. In fact, even if the second-tier cities are less stressed than the first-tier cities, the vast majority of migrant workers just use it as a transit point to make money. Faced with high housing prices and children's education problems, they eventually have to return to their hometowns and small cities.

Or, at least, the most important thing to do is to buy a house in a small city.

Qipu data shows that the average age of Hangzhou's population is 38.77 years old, and Dongguan, where most of the foreigners account for the majority, is even more exaggerated, with an average age of only 33.4 years old.

Why is it so younger? In the context of the decline in the number of births, the average age of these cities is still averaged by young people from outside, and at the same time, there are many hard-working people who finally return to their hometowns.

The steady stream of young people coming in may leave some city managers feeling incredibly optimistic. For a long time in the past, the speed of population inflow and the achievements of the war for people were publicized as political achievements.

This is not wrong, but it is easy to ignore the real drivers of the influx.

As mentioned earlier, there is often no way for a person from a county in Sichuan to go to Chengdu to work, or a person from a city in Henan to go to Zhengzhou for employment. It's not necessarily about how good the city is, it's more likely that the opportunities it offers are at least not as bad as if they were stuck in their hometown.

Photo/Glacier

Therefore, it may be too superficial to think that a city is successful because of a leading population growth rate. Behind this, it also reflects the narrowness of young people's choices under the dominance of a city. It is a competitive advantage, but it can also evolve into a development limitation.

If volume becomes the norm, second-tier cities with the dual imagination of comfort and struggle will sooner or later enter a folded state, and it is inevitable that there will be a day when the patience of workers will be exhausted.

Therefore, we may have to think about a question, when the second-tier city is labeled as a new first-tier city, when the concept of a new first-tier city is repeatedly hyped and marketed, where should its "newness" be reflected?

Of course, it is a good thing that there are more young people, but if the livable image created by the new first-tier cities is just an Internet-style imagination, then it is only a matter of time before it is punctured.

A city's "successology" should focus on retaining people, not just grabbing people. The key to retaining people is to do a good job in industrial construction, provide more high-quality jobs, and at the same time make housing prices more friendly, make supporting facilities more perfect, and make the business and legal environment more sound.