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In 1981, the plains of Eastern Europe witnessed an astonishing display of Soviet military might. Under the attention of the international community, the Soviet Union mobilized its huge military strength to organize a huge military exercise. The exercise not only demonstrated the military power of the Soviet Union, but also had a profound effect on Western observers on a psychological level.
At that time, the Soviet Union seemed to have surpassed the United States in its influence on the international stage, and its leader, Leonid Brezhnev, seemed to be on the verge of surpassing the United States. However, on the eve of the proud display of military power of the Soviet Union, a scholar from Norway published a paper in which he offered the opposite view of the future of the Soviet Union. The paper predicted the collapse of the USSR and also asserted that this would happen within a decade.
Although the paper was not taken seriously at the time, and the Soviet Union even disdained it, the wheels of history rolled with striking similarity in the direction predicted by scholars. In 1989, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union became inevitable, and the Norwegian scholar's prediction became the subject of widespread discussion.
That scholar is John Galtung, an expert in international peace studies. He not only has a strong academic background, but also plays the role of mediator in many international conflicts. Garton holds 13 PhDs and teaches at top universities around the world, such as Princeton University and the University of Oslo. His academic achievements and experience in international mediation have given him an in-depth and unique perspective on international affairs.
In the early 80s of the 20th century, Galtung predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union and the consequent global hegemony of the United States, as well as the possible reprisals of the United States from exploited countries. This prophecy seemed almost impossible to fulfill at the time, especially at a time when Soviet military power was at its peak. But over time, the development of history has not only proved that Galtung's predictions were accurate, but also revealed his deep understanding of the dynamics of international relations.
When the Soviet Union officially collapsed in 1991, the United States did become the world's sole superpower, and the international order underwent profound changes with the end of the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. The military and cultural influence of the United States began to spread to all corners of the world. From the Gulf War to interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, U.S. foreign policy has sparked controversy and conflict on a global scale.
In his 2009 book, Gartung offered a new prediction of the future of the United States, arguing that the United States would begin to decline in 2020 and collapse in 2025. He likened the United States to a monster with deformed limbs, whose political, military, economic, and cultural power is being overextended and abused, which will eventually lead to its decay.
Today, with the redistribution and rebalancing of power around the world, and the changing political and economic dynamics of the world, we may be at the turning point in history predicted by Galton. However, it remains to be seen whether it will develop exactly as he predicted. History is made up of a complex series of events that affect each other, and the future is unpredictable. Nonetheless, John Galton's contributions to international relations and his predictions undoubtedly provide us with important reflections on the possible future of the world.
Personal Experience:
In the 1981 year, the Soviet Union demonstrated its formidable military power with a huge military exercise. The exercise not only had a profound effect on Western observers, but also made it appear that the Soviet Union had surpassed the influence of the United States in the international arena. However, before that, a Norwegian scholar, John Galton, published a paper predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union, asserting that this would happen within a decade. Although not taken seriously at the time, history ultimately proved his predictions accurate. This made me think deeply that the development of history is often unexpected and sometimes even contrary to common sense.
John Galtung is an expert with deep academic skills and international mediation experience, who in the early 80s of the 20th century predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the United States as a global hegemon and possible retaliation. When the Soviet Union officially collapsed in 1991, his predictions proved to be accurate. This reminds me of the invaluable value of a person's in-depth and unique insight into international affairs.
In 2009, Gartung proposed a new prediction of the future of the United States, arguing that the United States would begin to decline in 2020 and collapse in 2025. He likened the United States to a monster with deformed limbs, whose political, military, economic, and cultural power is being overextended and abused, ultimately leading to its decay. While it is uncertain whether this prophecy will be fully realized, we are at a turning point in history as global power is redistributed and balanced, and global political and economic dynamics continue to change. Galton's contributions and prophecies provide us with an opportunity to think critically about the future of the world.
At the end of the day, in this article, I gain some important food for thought, from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the predictions of Galtung to the current changes in global dynamics. History is complex and mutually influential, and the future is unpredictable. But Gartung's contribution to international relations and his unmistakable predictions are undoubtedly thought-provoking and worthy of our in-depth reflection on the future development trend of the world.
In this article, I have gained some important reflections from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the predictions of Galton to the current changes in global dynamics. History is complex and mutually influential, and the future is unpredictable. But Gartung's contribution to international relations and his unmistakable predictions are undoubtedly thought-provoking and worthy of our in-depth reflection on the future development trend of the world.