As soon as the Chinese wake up, everything rises

Friday's market reaction to the jobs report can be boiled down to one sentence: bad news is good news, as long as it's not too bad.

The silent global market exploded last night, and many Chinese investors may not have had the privilege of witnessing it:

* The U.S. dollar index plunged 1%, giving up all of its gains since the September Fed meeting (a 1% depreciation in a single day, which is huge for a currency);

* The offshore yuan soared 500 points overnight, recovering the 7.30 level in one fell swoop, and the danger alert was lifted;

* U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.4%;

* Gold settled near $2,000, briefly breaking through this level during the session;

* U.S. Treasuries rose sharply, with the 10-year yield closing the week at 4.557% compared to 4.846% a week ago, the biggest weekly drop in Treasury yields since March.

| Yesterday, we accurately predicted the rise of gold

Everything goes up (the dollar goes up, everything goes down mode).

A large part of the reason why there was such a big feedback from the market that many analysts shouted "crazy" was because of the "unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 3.9%" in the non-farm payrolls report. It's a modest uptick, but it's significant – meaning that the U.S. economy is finally starting to cool down as it responds to the Fed's rate hike cycle. The unemployment rate rising above 4.0% is the threshold for triggering a recession and is now on the verge of a turning point.

Wall Street has already begun hyping up a recession and interest rate cuts. The market is pricing in a 5% probability of a Fed rate hike in December; Expectations for a rate cut in 2024 have risen sharply, from 67 basis points to 110 basis points (at least four 25 basis point cuts).

After the party, there are two questions that should be thought about (what is really important to care about is what lies beneath the surface):

First, is this the outcome the Fed wants?

Definitely not. On the one hand, the hype is no longer raising interest rates, but the stock market is rising, bond yields are falling – financial conditions will become more and more accommodative, contrary to the Fed's vision; On the other hand, hyping up a recession – which continues – is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Second, how long will the last? At what point does it end?

We thought about this question long before the non-farm payrolls data. The Wall Street Intelligence Circle Trading Team has released "Global Market Strategy (Issue 52): Let the Bullets Fly a Little Longer", and the secret of the current global market is here: how long will the market movement triggered by the Fed's policy pivot last? A week, a month, or longer? Will $2,000 be the future low for gold? Is China's stock market rising? Will crude oil rise or fall in the future? There are answers to all of these.

There are two highlights from this report:

1. The beginning is a prediction of the trend of the global market next week (the rise and fall judgment and point prediction of each market, this is the answer by excluding the emotional factor), and then extrapolating the Fed's future actions - because the current financial market is the guiding light of the Fed, especially the three major markets of the US stock market, the US dollar index and the US Treasury bonds.

2. Uncover the mystery of two major issues:

First, how long will the Fed's dovish pivot last this week: a week? Fortnight? One month? Or longer? (We tell you the exact answer)

Second, there are two red lines for the Fed that cannot be touched: the US stock market cannot rise more than one point (yes, you read that right), and the 10-year Treasury yield cannot fall below one point.

In addition, this report will also debunk the Fed's logic of market manipulation, and a picture is worth a thousand words.