Jiajiu.com: The third quarterly report of liquor is both ice and fire, and the threshold of the first-line camp may rise to 30 billion|financial report

On the evening of October 30, Luzhou Laojiao released its third quarter report for 2023. The financial report shows that in the first three quarters of this year, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 21.943 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.21%; The net profit was 10.566 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.58%.

So far, the top five liquor listed companies (hereinafter referred to as the "top five liquors") have all disclosed their third quarter reports in 2023, and their rankings have not changed compared with last year, in order: Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao.

Based on the third quarter report of 2023, under the background of the overall pressure on the liquor industry this year and the company's high base, the top five liquor companies have achieved double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, which fully reflects their excellent brand tension and anti-risk ability.

However, behind the steady development of the top five liquors, the differentiation of the industry is further intensifying, and the performance is also showing a situation of ice and fire.

The top five liquors are stable and improving

Steady progress is the key word for the development of the top five liquor companies in the third quarter of 2023.

From January to September this year, Moutai achieved revenue of 103.268 billion yuan and net profit of 52.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 18%. In the same period, Wuliangye achieved revenue and net profit of 62.536 billion and 22.833 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than double digits. Undoubtedly, this third quarterly report has further consolidated the leading position of the two in the industry.

In addition to Moutai and Wuliangye, Yanghe, Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao also performed well, and can even be described as "leapfrogging".

Specifically, in the first three quarters of this year, Yanghe and Fenjiu recorded revenues of 30.283 billion and 26.744 billion with year-on-year growth rates of 14.35% and 20.78% respectively. In the same period, the net profit of the two was 10.203 billion yuan and 9.431 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.47% and 32.68% respectively.

Combined with the 2022 annual reports of the two famous wines, the 2023 third quarter report sheet they handed over is even more eye-catching. According to the financial report, in 2022, Yanghe and Fenjiu will achieve revenue of 30.105 billion and 26.214 billion respectively, and net profit of 9.378 billion and 8.096 billion respectively. This means that the revenue and net profit of the two in the first three quarters of this year have both exceeded the level of last year, which shows the steady and high-quality development of the two.

Luzhou Laojiao has also achieved leapfrog development. According to the data, in 2022, Luzhou Laojiao will achieve a revenue of 25.124 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.365 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of this year, Luzhou Laojiao recorded revenue and net profit of 21.943 billion and 10.566 billion respectively. Among them, the revenue growth rate of Luzhou Laojiao ranked first among the top five liquor growth rates in the same period, and the total net profit exceeded the company's annual net profit level last year.

It is worth noting that among the top five liquors, although Luzhou Laojiao's revenue ranks fifth, its net profit ranks among the top three after Moutai and Wuliangye. This also shows from the side that driven by the core high-end large single product Guojiao 1573, the overall profitability of Luzhou Laojiao is relatively high. It can be seen that driven by high-end super single products, wine companies can not only build the foundation of the company's steady development, but also further build and expand the "moat" of the company's profitability, which is also the key reason why Luzhou Laojiao's revenue is lower than that of Yanghe and Fenjiu, but the net profit is higher than the latter two.

The threshold of the first-line camp of liquor may rise to 30 billion

According to the statistics of Jiajiu.com, by the end of 2022, a total of 8 wine companies have an annual revenue scale of more than 20 billion. Among them, there are 5 listed liquor companies, namely Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, and the other 3 are unlisted liquor companies Langjiu, Xijiu and Jiannanchun.

At that time, many industry experts said that the "20 billion club" gathered three major flavor representative enterprises of strong fragrance, sauce fragrance and light fragrance, and listed companies and non-listed companies went hand in hand, and the revenue scale of 20 billion yuan became the threshold for liquor companies to enter the first-line camp.

However, combined with the development trend of the above-mentioned famous wine this year, the threshold for wine companies to enter the first-line camp may be rising to 30 billion. Needless to say, Moutai and Wuliangye stood on the 30 billion revenue level as early as 2013 and 2017. Since the beginning of this year, the two have continued to maintain a leading position in the industry by virtue of steady progress.

The unlisted Langjiu and Xijiu have also achieved high-quality development. At the end of September this year, Langjiu announced that the sales data of merchants scanning codes from January to September 2023 exceeded that of the whole year of 2022, which means that it is sprinting to 30 billion on the basis of last year's sales revenue of 20 billion.

At present, although Xijiu has not yet announced the specific sales revenue data for the first three quarters of 2023, Xijiu has previously said that it will achieve sales of 11.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Recently, Xijiu further stated that Junpin Xijiu has successfully completed various plan indicators. It can be seen that since the beginning of this year, Xijiu has continued to maintain a steady pace of development, and it is worth paying attention to whether the annual sales revenue can go to a higher level.

In addition, the good development momentum of Yanghe, Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao highlights that the threshold of the first-line camp of liquor is gradually rising. Yanghe's revenue in 2022 will reach 30 billion for the first time, reaching this revenue scale in the first three quarters of this year, and moving towards 40 billion revenue.

Fenjiu recorded revenue of 26.214 billion in the first three quarters of this year, and there is no suspense that the annual revenue exceeded 30 billion. In the same period, Luzhou Laojiao achieved a year-on-year increase of 21.943 billion revenue of 25.21%, and its efforts in the fourth quarter are also expected to stand on the 30 billion revenue level, after all, the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption season of liquor and the Spring Festival stocking season.

What is certain is that as more and more wine companies' annual revenue enters the "30 billion camp", the threshold for entering the first-line camp of the industry will rise, and it is obviously only a matter of time before it rises from the current 20 billion to 30 billion.

Net profit is another key indicator to test the high-quality development of first-line famous wines. Judging from the currently known data, the net profits of Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe are as high as more than 10 billion. In addition, Fenjiu has achieved a net profit of 9.431 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, and it is obvious that there is no pressure for the annual net profit to exceed 10 billion. Based on this, it may also be concluded that a net profit of 10 billion yuan may become another threshold for liquor companies to truly enter the front-line camp of the industry.

The performance is both hot and cold

Of course, we must also see that behind the steady development of leading enterprises, industry differentiation is further intensifying, and the performance is also showing a situation of ice and fire.

Judging from the data of the third quarter report of 2023, in the first three quarters of this year, the development of many listed liquor companies is still difficult to be optimistic. For example, Laobai dry wine and Huangtai wine industry have seen a decline in net profit; For another example, Jiujiu Liquor has become a liquor company with both revenue and profits, and its revenue from January to September this year was 2.142 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.54%; The net profit was 479 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.75%.

In addition, Shunxin agriculture and Golden Seed Liquor fell into the quagmire of losses, with losses of 292 million yuan and 35 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of this year.

In this regard, some industry experts said that the liquor industry has entered a new round of deep adjustment period, high inventory, low demand, price inversion and so on are still the main characteristics of the current industry development, superimposed on the head of the famous liquor to accelerate the sinking of channels, the launch of mass price products and other dimensionality reduction strikes, which directly squeezed the living space of many regional liquor companies, especially small and medium-sized liquor companies, which led to the intensification of industry differentiation and the continued concentration of market share to the head liquor companies.

In fact, the liquor sales terminal also shows the development status quo of ice and fire. Some media previously reported that nearly 20,000 cigarette hotels in Henan have closed down since the beginning of this year. Recently, during the first-line visit and research of the Jiajiu.com team, many tobacco hotel owners expressed concerns about the future development.

Many cigarette hotels revealed to the Jiajiu team that the current high-end main products of first- and second-tier famous liquor are slowly increasing, but the prices of these products are very transparent, and the profit is only a few tens of yuan, while consumers do not buy the well-known small and medium-sized liquor brands.

In the view of brokerage institutions, at present, the first and second line of famous wine collection is nearing the end, and most of the feedback from channels such as batch price and inventory is in a relatively benign state, and with the gradual recovery of the consumer market, the industry as a whole will maintain a positive momentum of development. At the same time, the central government recently released the news of the issuance of additional trillion national bonds, which is expected to boost the steady recovery of infrastructure investment, which will have a positive impact on liquor consumption. However, in this context, the Matthew effect of the liquor industry will be more obvious, and the speed of market share concentration in famous and high-quality liquor companies will be further accelerated.