The short-term goal has been frustrated, and a number of actions have led to speculation, and the United States plans to "decouple semiconductors in 5 years"?

U.S. President Joe Biden issued a new executive order on artificial intelligence (AI) on the 30th, which is said to be the first time the U.S. government has taken action to regulate AI. From AI to semiconductors, the United States wants to be a "leader" and lead the development of various emerging fields. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that after the failure of short-term protectionist policies, the United States is working with some chip companies to promote "decoupling" from China in five years to develop the U.S. semiconductor industry. In this regard, Chinese companies are actively responding. According to the New York Times, dozens of Chinese chip companies are finalizing plans to raise funds this year, and the Chinese government is also injecting capital into the industry. A number of foreign media said that the U.S. chip sanctions on China have instead prompted China to embark on a path of independent research and development of semiconductors.

Data map (Visual China)

Turning to the medium to long term?

The U.S. may be taking a longer-term view of "supply chain decoupling" from China. "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported on the 27th that due to concerns that chip restrictions may seriously disrupt the industry, the U.S. government is considering gradually planning to "decouple" from China in the medium and long term, and the whole process will take about 5 years.

According to the report, before the visit to China, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo listened to the opinions of more than 100 U.S. business executives who have operations in China and wanted to understand the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on their business in China. Considering the high production rate of companies such as Apple, Hewlett-Packard, and Dell in China, production plans of these companies may be forced to delay if they are unable to source cutting-edge semiconductors. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun said that in the short term, American companies will suffer huge losses if they promote "decoupling" from China.

According to the report, at present, the Biden administration's $52 billion subsidy plan to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry has a five-year distribution cycle. Raimondo stressed in the U.S. Congress last month that "this is a grand vision, and in five years it should be able to achieve a lot of goals." Among the "many goals" is to attract companies from South Korea and Taiwan to invest in U.S. semiconductors, paving the way for the U.S. to re-emerge as a semiconductor powerhouse.

According to the U.S. government's "five-year decoupling plan", companies are also making corresponding adjustments. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun quoted sources as saying that Samsung has formulated an internal plan to complete the investment recovery of the Xi'an factory by 2028, comply with relevant U.S. regulations and stop investing in cutting-edge semiconductors in China - while maintaining the operation of the factory, reduce the proportion of production in China in stages. The Press Trust of India reported that the country's industrial policy chief said that Apple will increase iPhone production in India to five times the current level within five years. According to the US securities firm, more than 30% of Apple's iPhones will be produced in India by 2028.

U.S. restrictions have not had the desired effect

Ma Jihua, an expert in the communications industry, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 30th that Washington's chip blockade against China and the "decoupling and breaking the chain" in the field of science and technology have long-term plans and strategic goals. If the U.S. government really formulates a "five-year plan" to suppress China's semiconductor industry in the near future, it shows that the series of measures taken by the U.S. side have not achieved the expected results, or that the ideal goal of "crushing China's semiconductor industry in the short term" has not been achieved.

U.S. controls are seen as loopholes, such as allowing Chinese chip companies to import equipment through third countries. In addition, there is a steady stream of semiconductor engineers traveling to China from South Korea and other places, and the outflow of technology through job-hoppers will not stop. In order to prevent this multi-layered technology outflow, the U.S. government has recently introduced further restrictions. According to the analysis of the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun", the plan of the "decoupling" between the United States and China, which is busy clinging to its feet, is a race against time.

Ma Jihua said that from the perspective of the target of the U.S. suppression, it initially focused on manufacturing tools such as lithography machines in the chip industry chain, hoping to cut off the production of China's high-performance chips and force Chinese companies to give up their ability to develop upward. After Chinese companies withstood the pressure, the United States began to invest in a broader semiconductor industry chain, not only manufacturing equipment, but also patented technology.

According to an analysis by the New York Times, it is unclear to what extent the Bureau of Industry and Security, the U.S. Commerce Department's agency responsible for export controls, will be able to enforce these rules. Gregory Allen, former director of the Pentagon's artificial intelligence strategy, said: "The Bureau of Industry and Security's to-do list has increased dramatically, but their budget has not increased at all. ”

China has responded positively

Will things go according to the US government's plan? Ma Jihua predicts that many breakthroughs can be achieved in China's chip industry in five years. There is even a possibility that the United States will not only fail to achieve its goals in five years, but will allow China's semiconductor industry to develop independently under pressure and have stronger international competitiveness. This has already happened in 5G, new energy and other fields.

The U.S. approach is clearly forcing China to respond. Paul Tryolo, senior vice president of China affairs at Albright Stonebridge Group, an international strategy consultancy, said: "Many industries in China are 'de-Americanizing' their supply chains. According to an analysis by the New York Times, Chinese companies seem to be less hesitant to use local Chinese materials. Chinese tech companies up and down the supply chain are looking for ways to replace Western chips and related equipment. GAC Group, a Chinese electric car maker, said earlier this year that its ultimate goal was to buy about 1,000 chips from domestic suppliers to make the cars.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported that a founder of a Chinese semiconductor technology company said: "Without U.S. sanctions, China's semiconductor industry would likely continue to follow its old path and become a pure buyer of chip equipment, making products for others." ”

Ma Jihua predicts that due to the limited effect of related actions, the United States may restrict semiconductor investment, talent exchanges and other fields in the future. This also requires the mainland to lay a solid foundation and strengthen basic theoretical research, basic material research and development, and talent training, so that China's semiconductor industry can take the lead in the new round of technological revolution in the future. Ma Jihua believes that China's semiconductor industry will not be "decoupled and broken" as the United States hopes, but will be more open and take the road of globalization and win-win cooperation.