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Text/Dingfeng Boli
The time has come, on February 9, local time, a week ago, Russia said it had completely surrounded Bakh-Muth, and it has been four days since European and American media said that a major attack on the Russian army would be carried out within ten days.
The situation is tense. Zelensky begins his European tour, Bach-Mutter is about to fall.
1. Bach and Mutter are about to fall
On February 9, local time, Wagner once again issued a major battle report, saying that the Wagner command was launching a fierce attack on the strategically important Red Mountain from three directions - the strategy of Bakhmut, and almost constantly attacked the enemy with weapons and aircraft. In the Red Mountains. Click Trips. The Ukrainian army is completely surrounded in this place.
It is worth recalling that on February 8, it was reported that the 30th Brigade of the Ukrainian Mobile Forces defected without authorization, which led to the opening of the western highland defenses of Blagodatne, allowing Wagner to jump directly from the west.
In retrospect, this information may have been true. At present, the Ukrainian army is surrounded on three sides at two key defensive points in the entire northern part of Bakhmut, Red Hill and Bafikon, with strong attack power. Of course, the defenders could not stay long.
It is also reminiscent of the Soledar war. Allegedly, the main reason for Soledar's rapid ouster was the sudden flight of the 128th Ukrainian Mountain Brigade from the fighting, which led to the collapse of the situation.
Now, Bach Mutter may be experiencing the same symptoms!
At the same time, the next day, word spread that Wagner's soldiers had broken through from Bakhmut to the last uncontrolled highway: on the way to Chasov Yar. However, the rotation and replenishment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city continues.
In addition, it was confirmed that the Russian regular army (special forces) attacked the town of Bakhmut.
North of the city of Bakhmut, where the Russian army achieved its goal of dividing and encircling the Ukrainian army.
To the east and south of the town of Bakhmut, Russian forces continue to break through the town's defenses and advance. It can be said that at the moment only the central and western regions of Bach-Mutter remain under the control of the Ukrainian army.
This can also be supported by the presence of battleships in areas such as the north of the city of Bakhmut. It can be seen that the security threat in these areas is not significant.
Aerial photograph of Bach Mutter
Obviously, the military situation in Bach-Mutt-Ukraine has deteriorated.
On February 8, the Institute for the Study of War announced that the Russian army had regained the initiative on the battlefield and was about to launch a major offensive.
On February 9, Israeli intelligence: the Ukrainian army is on the verge of defeat and it is time to launch Plan B. By all indications, this was the only time Bach and Mutter fell.
2. Russia is about to launch a large-scale attack, and Bakhmu may be a clarion call for an attack.
Today, the day of the fall of Bakhmut, is the beginning of a major offensive against Russia. In other words, the change of ownership of Bach-Mutter is a call to action!
Some analysts believe that after reading some conversations between the DNR and Russian border commanders, there are signs that the Russian army is indeed preparing for a large-scale decisive attack. Moreover, the attack is about to begin.
According to an interview with the commander of the Eastern Front Army Group Khodakovsky, this meaning is unambiguous.
If there is such an attack, Slavyansk will be the main direction of attack.
There is also an opinion that Russia is currently in a critical situation and must seize Donbass in order to have any hope of achieving a blockade of NATO, that is, a strategic confrontation.
Therefore, the probability of such a large-scale attack is very high. After the fall of Bakhmut, the Russian military will officially sound the clarion call for a large-scale offensive. The Russian army will be able to attack Seversk from several directions at once and quickly blockade the city. The next targets are Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. If all goes well, it is also possible to attack Kharkov and Sumy (not controlled, but at the same time)
Overall, there are two perspectives on Russia's next attack. One is an all-out offensive; The second is a decisive battle in the Donbass, but not a general offensive.
However, I personally believe that the ability of the Russian army to launch a large-scale attack at this time is not very high. As a result of Ukraine's preparations, a layer of fortifications was built on the Belarusian border and around Kiev. On the one hand, if you attack strongly, the loss will be too great, and on the other hand, the progress will not be fast. It would be better to take the Donbass first and see what changes have taken place in Ukraine.
Above all, the importance of the war between Russia and Ukraine is a game between Russia and the United States. This basically determines that a large-scale attack will not achieve its goal quickly. Russia must be patient and wise. Only the dissolution of NATO can completely break this situation.
3. Tears in Brussels: Zelensky burst into tears when he gave a speech at the European Parliament and received applause from the audience.
In the past two or three days, Zelensky has started a trip to Europe, which is both unexpected and reasonable!
First the United Kingdom, then Germany, France, then Belgium and Brussels.
However, Zelensky's painstaking diplomacy does not seem to have received concrete support. Most EU countries are still in the wait-and-see and verbal support phase.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he would talk to Zelenskyy about sending more weapons to Kyiv. Sunak even asked Defense Secretary Wallace to find out what aircraft Britain might provide to Ukraine. But the problem is that the British Air Department insists that the British fighter jets are limited in number and need to take care of themselves first.
Although German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany will provide military support to Kyiv as long as it needs it. However, there was no news of a large order this time. French President Emmanuel Macron said: "We support Ukraine and will lead it to victory." Russia must not win this war. But he also did not give any specific commitments.
Of course, Ukraine may still be on its own, or it may need more diplomacy.
The sad truth is that a large-scale Russian attack is imminent, and it is almost impossible for Western weapons to reach Ukraine during this time.
On February 8, the United States published a blockbuster article: Ukraine needs to respond to terrorist attacks against Russia in the east. It is clearly stated: Ukraine does not have enough resources. And the tanks did not arrive on time.
Of course, Zelensky's trip to Europe will continue.
On the afternoon of February 9, Zelensky arrived in Brussels, Belgium.
Subsequently, Zelensky delivered his usual stirring speech at the European Parliament. He said that for the first time in the history of the European Union, such a level of military assistance was provided, and that the Ukrainian people supported the European Union.
1. Europe! You are defending yourselves against the most powerful anti-European forces in the modern world. Ukrainians defend themselves on the battlefield with you.
2. Russia is a terrorist state that threatens Europe. It not only had Soviet weapons, but also received weapons and equipment from other regimes, especially Iran.
3. We don't rely on words, we take responsibility. We don't waste time, we change and change. As long as we are together, as long as we care about Europe, Europe will always remain free.
4. Only the victory of Ukraine can ensure that pan-European values are preserved.
Tears in Brussels
However, the situation in Bach-Mut is very critical, the situation in Donbass is rapidly deteriorating, and Zelensky has now begun to visit. This, of course, creates uncertainty inside and outside Ukraine. Some have even pointed out that Zele drivers may not return to Ukraine anytime soon.
Because he had no way to deal with the aftermath of Bach and Mutter. Moreover, Ukraine has lost too many troops to cope. You know, Zelensky has repeatedly said loudly that he will stand with Bakhmut. So, if we go back to that time, we will not be able to protect ourselves, and in this difficult time, there may even be a rebellion.
So for now, it's a good plan to tour Europe under the slogan of unity.
This month, drivers may be stranded in Western Europe for a variety of reasons.
And this estimate is groundless. After all, there was a power purge in Kyiv recently. In fact, the Minister of the Interior, the Chief of Police, the Minister of Defence, the Minister of Defence, and the Attorney General are all high-ranking civilians, many of whom are believed to be close to the driver, Zeli.
In addition, it should be noted that these major purges were carried out after the visit of the CIA director to Kiev. Evocative, of course.
Of course, there are also those who believe that Zelensky is the one who caused the earthquake in Kyiv's political arena. Say, saving someone. But the biggest logical flaw in this view is that if the driver is driving, why bother with his own fleet? And now the situation is so critical that he should stay in Kyiv to stabilize the situation in the DPRK, not "travel" everywhere.
In short, after the fall of Bakhmut, there is a high probability of a major upheaval in Kiev's political arena. In addition, whether Zelian driver will go back in the near future is also believed to have an answer soon.
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