At present, the domestic head anchors with goods have exceeded 100 million fans, and the annual GMV (total merchandise transaction) impact of 100 billion exists, which has surpassed many listed companies in terms of scale alone.
Let's take a look at the data and valuations of the five major domestic e-commerce platforms.
Alibaba owns e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, Tmall, 1688, and Taote, with a GMV of 8.3 trillion in 2022, and the number of monthly active users is around 900 million, and Alibaba's current market value exceeds 1.54 trillion yuan.
Simply do the math:
Alibaba generates an average market capitalization of 1 trillion per 4.3684 trillion GMV, or 171.111 billion per 100 million monthly active users. E-commerce accounts for about 67% of Alibaba's overall revenue, so when you add it up, it creates a market value of 1 trillion per 6.519 trillion GMV, or 114.644 billion per 100 million monthly active users.
Douyin's e-commerce GMV in 2022 is about 1.41 trillion, the number of monthly active users is about 700 million, and the valuation of the parent company is 1.6 trillion yuan.
Namely:
On average, every 0.88 trillion GMV creates a valuation of 1 trillion, or 228.571 billion per 100 million monthly active users.
Pinduoduo mainly has two major platforms, Pinduoduo and Temu, Temu's GMV has exceeded $5 billion in a single quarter; In 2022, Pinduoduo's overall GMV will be about 3.4 trillion, the number of monthly active users will be around 660 million, and the current market value will exceed 1.05 trillion yuan.
Compute:
Pinduoduo generates an average market capitalization of $1 trillion per 3.24 trillion GMV, or 159.091 billion per 100 million monthly active users.
JD.com's GMV in 2022 is at the level of 3.5 trillion yuan, the number of monthly active users is close to 600 million, and the current market value is about 295 billion yuan.
Namely:
JD.com has created an average market value of 1 trillion per 11.86 trillion GMV, or 49.167 billion per 100 million monthly active users. Since JD.com also includes other businesses such as logistics, and the retail business accounted for 88.88% of revenue in 2022, the data needs to be adjusted to create a market value of 1 trillion yuan per 13.34 trillion GMV, or 43.699 billion market value per 100 million monthly active users.
Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV in 2022 will be around 700 billion, the number of monthly active users will be about 630 million, and the current market value will be 211.6 billion yuan.
Namely:
On average, Kuaishou has created a market capitalization of 1 trillion per 3.31 trillion GMV, or 33.587 billion per 100 million monthly active users.
There are two valuation methods, one is calculated using GMV and the other is calculated using the number of active users. GMV, which is averaged across the five companies to create a $1 trillion valuation per 5.46 trillion GMV; The number of active users/followers, taken as the average of the five companies, can create a valuation of 115.918 billion per 100 million followers.
Now for the valuation calculation of the top anchors:
1. Li Jiaqi
The current number of fans in Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room is 80.138 million, taking 70% as active users, and in 2022, the GMV of Li Jiaqi's live broadcast agency will exceed 65 billion, and the valuation of Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room will probably reach 65.026 billion yuan, and according to the GMV valuation, it will reach about 11.905 billion, and the two will be averaged, 38.465 billion yuan.
Li Jiaqi mainly focuses on the beauty field, and if he is given a valuation of 384.65 yuan, it will be close to Proya, the largest cosmetics company in China, which currently has a market value of nearly 40 billion.
2. Simba/Sincho Group
Simba's Xinxuan Group's GMV will reach 50 billion in 2022, and the number of Simba's fans has exceeded 100 million, according to the GMV valuation, the valuation of Xinxuan Group can reach 9.158 billion, and the valuation of Xinxuan Group can reach 81.143 billion according to the number of active users, taking 70% as active users, and the valuation of Xinxuan Group can reach 81.143 billion, with an average of 45.151 billion yuan.
Xinxuan Group's selection is relatively extensive, and if it is ranked according to the valuation of 45.151 billion, Xinxuan Group has surpassed Yonghui Supermarket, Wangfujing and other A-share retail department stores.
3. Crazy Brother Yang
Crazy Brother Yang has registered a company - Three Sheep Network, the current number of fans of Crazy Brother Yang has also exceeded 100 million, and the GMV may be close to 6 billion in 2022, and the valuation of the Three Sheep Network can be 81.143 billion according to the valuation of GMV, and the average of the two is 41.121 billion yuan.
4. Eggs
The number of Dandan's fans is close to 100 million, reaching 90.465 million, and the annual GMV may exceed 8 billion, with a valuation of 1.465 billion based on GMV and 73.406 billion based on active users, with an average of 37.435 billion.
According to the valuation of 37.435 billion, it has surpassed the two major A-share retail companies of Child-Friendly Room (market value of 9.397 billion) and Baby-Friendly Room (market value 2.223 billion).
5. Oriental Selection (Hong Kong stock listing)
Dongfang Selection's GMV in 2022 will reach 10 billion, with 30.916 million fans, and the current market value of Dongfang Selection's Hong Kong stock market is about RMB 30.754 billion, which is valued according to the above-mentioned GMV and active users, respectively, to 1.832 billion and 28.670 billion, with an average value of 15.251 billion.
6. Luo Yonghao / Make a friend (Hong Kong stock listing)
The number of fans in the live broadcast room of Make a Friend is 21.795 million, the GMV has exceeded 5 billion in the first half of the year, and it may exceed 10 billion throughout the year, and the current market value of the Hong Kong stock market of Make a Friend Holding is about 1.574 billion yuan, and it is also valued according to the above-mentioned GMV and active users, respectively, to 18.32 and 17.685 billion, with an average value of 9.759 billion.
Since the actual market value of Dongfang Selection and Make a Friend is close to the "active user valuation method" and "GMV valuation method" respectively, and the GMV of the two companies is basically at the same level, I analyzed the difference between the business and model of the two companies, which lies in the self-operated products.
The specific difference is also reflected in the profitability, according to the latest financial report data of the two companies, Dongfang Selection's revenue in FY23 was 4.510 billion, the net profit was 971 million, and the net profit margin was 21.53%; In the first half of the year, Jiaoyou Holdings had a revenue of 433 million, a net profit of 43.253 million, and a net profit margin of 9.99%, and the profit margin of the two companies was more than doubled.
Therefore, a more specific division is made for the head anchors with goods, which are divided into two types: "bringing goods" and "bringing goods + self-operated".
is roughly a pure delivery model, with GMV valuation, 11.905 billion in Li Jiaqi's live broadcast room; 1.574 billion in the live broadcast room of Make a Friend; 1.465 billion in the Dandan live broadcast room; 1.099 billion in Crazy Brother Yang's live broadcast room.
Then there is the model of having its own products at the same time, and it is more appropriate to use the number of active users to valuation, Xinxuan Group's 81.143 billion; 30.754 billion selected by the East.
According to the highest valuation of 81.143 billion, it has been able to rank 152nd in market value among the 5080 A-share companies, surpassing Bank of Nanjing (81.3 billion) and second only to China Satcom (82.46 billion); The lowest 1.099 billion can barely squeeze into the 5062nd place.