The phenomenon of urban siphon is not unique to China, it is a phenomenon that is widespread in the process of urbanization around the world. However, in China, the phenomenon of urban siphon is particularly pronounced due to the huge urban network, unique population management system, and uneven economic development.
In 2022, China will enter a negative population growth stage for the first time, which is five years earlier than the major professors expected, which means that the next negative population growth trend may be just the beginning. Negative population growth does not affect a country's population flow, and population is directly related to wealth, Japan's Kanto Plain, which concentrates 40% of the country's population and 50% of GDP, and the Seoul metropolitan area accounts for 50% of South Korea's total population, which also promotes Seoul's economy. In the future, more people may gather in large cities.
In the ten years from 2012 to 2022, the population of Chinese cities continued to grow, of which Shenzhen ranked first with a ten-year increase of 7.11 million.
Chengdu in Sichuan, Xi'an in Shaanxi, Wuhan in Hubei, and Zhengzhou in Henan, these cities have no decent cities in the surrounding province to compete with them, and these powerful cities continue to extract the resources of the surrounding weak and small cities.
Those who "gain" the population "get" development. Negative population growth is the trend of the times, however, this does not mean that China's population distribution will be evenly distributed throughout the country in the future, but that more people will be concentrated in large cities. In fact, this trend is already beginning to appear. Taking Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Xi'an as examples, with the rapid development of industrial economy in recent years, supporting resources have been continuously improved, attracting a large influx of population. But here there are no more opportunities than the third and fourth tier cities, there is no good treatment, comfortable life, friendly housing prices, these cities are quite involuted, the salary is 20%-30% lower than the north, Shanghai and Guangshen, large and small weeks, 996, many companies five insurances and one housing fund are not guaranteed.
The county located within the urban agglomeration and metropolitan area integrates into the construction and development of neighboring large cities, takes the initiative to undertake the population, industry, functions, especially general manufacturing, regional logistics bases, professional markets, and overly concentrated public service resources to ease and transfer, strengthen rapid transportation connections, and develop into satellite counties with convenient commuting, complementary functions and supporting industries with neighboring large cities. And counties far from urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas are losing population.
China's county scale is very strong, the number of counties + county-level cities has reached 1754, of which the number of "shrinking counties" with large-scale population loss has reached 1507, accounting for up to 85%, and this proportion will be further expanded in the future, more than 90% of China's counties will decline in the future, and the population of China's large cities is still flowing in on a large scale, especially in provincial capitals such as Chengdu, Wuhan and Zhengzhou, which has almost dealt a devastating blow to the surrounding counties.
When a city introduces population, it will generate unlimited GDP, and the introduction of population in a city will indeed have a significant impact on GDP, and the introduction of population in a city can bring more labor, consumers and investors, thereby promoting the development of the local economy. These new populations bring new consumer demand and investment opportunities, further driving GDP growth. At the same time, these populations also need housing and other infrastructure, increasing demand for real estate, which is likely to drive house prices up.
However, the rise and fall of housing prices is not only determined by the inflow of people. In the real estate market, supply and demand are one of the most basic influencing factors. If housing prices in a city are too high and supply is insufficient, then house prices are likely to rise. However, if there is an oversupply, or if there is insufficient demand, then house prices may fall.
In addition, policy regulation is also one of the important factors affecting housing prices. The government can control housing prices by formulating land supply policies, purchase restriction policies, loan restrictions and other measures. If the government adopts stricter policy measures, then house prices may be suppressed.
Finally, the economic situation is also one of the important factors affecting housing prices. If a city's economy is not doing well, then there is a chance that house prices will fall. Conversely, if a city's economy is doing well, house prices are likely to rise. The introduction of population into cities does have an impact on GDP, while the rise and fall of housing prices is affected by a variety of factors. When judging the rise and fall of house prices, we need to consider the role of these factors comprehensively.