preface
On the 19th of this month, the White House announced that the destroyer "Carney" sent by the United States to the Red Sea intercepted at least 3 cruise missiles and at least 8 drones.
These cruise missiles and drones are flying north, the target is most likely Israel, and the attacker is most likely the Houthis in Yemen. But what people never expected is that according to the subsequent news released by the US government, this matter is far from as simple as we imagined...
Why the Houthis
According to the news released by the US side on the 20th of this month, we noticed that the duration of this attack was as long as nine hours! And Yemen's Houthis have launched at least 4 cruise missiles and 19 drones!
The reason why it is so certain that the target of the Houthis in Yemen must be Israel is mainly because of the special geographical location of the Houthis.
As a country in the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen has no direct overland communication channels with Palestine in the southern "middle ground".
This means that even if the Yemeni Houthis intend to attack Israel, they must detour the attack. Because Saudi Arabia and Jordan will certainly not allow Houthi missiles and drones to directly cross their territory and then attack Israeli targets.
If the Houthis does so, it will undoubtedly trigger Israeli attacks on both countries. After all, before Hamas withdrew from Jordan, the Israeli military would directly attack Jordan.
At this stage, Yemen's Houthis are also in the process of peace talks with the GCC countries led by Saudi Arabia, and naturally will not touch Saudi Arabia at this time.
Therefore, at this stage, the forces that will attack Israel through the Red Sea Strait are actually only the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, the Houthis, as a force listed as a "terrorist organization" by the United States as early as 2021, and as one of the few forces in the "arc of resistance" that is not afraid of direct intervention by the US military.
The Houthis do have the ability and the courage to directly attack Israel under the protection of the US military, and even have the courage to directly attack the US military, which is also difficult for other Islamic armed forces to do.
"Fatigue tactics"?
It is also worth mentioning the pattern of attacks adopted by the Houthis against Israel. At this stage, the biggest obstacle between the Houthis and its attack on Israel is actually the US fleet.
The "Carney" guided-missile destroyer, which "showed its talents" in this Houthi missile strike, is actually just an old model of "Burke 1 destroyer" that began service in 1996.
Although the ship also uses the "Aegis" system, the "Aegis" system on its ship is actually quite old. The radar system model of the "Carney" is AN/SPA-1D phased array radar, and the failure rate of this model is still relatively high.
Most of the time, phased array radars are not turned on, and only when threatened by the enemy, phased array radars are turned on. And the cruise missiles and drones of the Houthis armed forces, all fly at low altitude.
This also makes the phased array radar of the US military must be turned on for a long time, and the Houthi operation lasts 9 hours, and I am afraid that the AN/SPA-1D on the "Carney" is always on.
"Carney" has been in service for 27 years and really can't withstand such a toss. For the Houthis, if they just want to hit the US warship, they should shoot all the missiles together, so that the "Carney" cannot be stopped.
However, if the Houthis want to strike at Israel for a long time, it is indeed a better way to use this "fueling tactic" to consume the radar system of the US warship.
If you want the "Kani" to carry this long-term low-intensity threat, I am afraid it is also unrealistic, and when the radar failure of the "Kani" is the time for the Yemeni Houthi forces to "attack".
On the other hand, the Houthis's total of 23 missiles and drones require US warships to use ESSM anti-aircraft missiles to strike. To be honest, this is also a little bit of "cannon hitting mosquitoes".
Because the US military uses ESSM anti-aircraft missiles to strike a target. It is necessary to consume one anti-aircraft missile. And the total number of anti-aircraft missiles on US warships will not exceed fifty.
The missiles mainly used by the Houthis are actually Iran's "C-280" cruise missiles imitating the mainland, and their cost itself is quite low.
Even if it is a "empty run" one shot after another, for the Houthis, it is actually not a big loss. The suicide drones used by the Houthis are even cheaper.
The drones mainly used by the Houthis are also suicide drones developed and produced by Iran, "Witness-136". This suicide drone, in the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, has proven its strength.
The appearance of "Witness-136" in Yemen is much earlier than its debut in the Ukrainian battlefield. Unlike American drones with millions of dollars, the cost of "Witness-136" is only 20,000 US dollars!
This price is basically the price of cabbage, so the "Witness-136" is basically used as "consumables", and if the Houthis can exchange a "Witness-136" for an ESSM air defense missile, it is actually quite worthwhile.
And the Houthis have long had successful cases of using this "fueling tactic". In 2019, the Houthis successfully used Iranian suicide drones to hit Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, which even caused an increase in international oil prices at that time.
The "Patriot", which Saudi Arabia has spent a lot of money on, is still unable to effectively intercept the Houthis's drone tactics. Russia's S400 cannot intercept Ukrainian drone attacks, and even Moscow has been attacked.
Israel's Iron Dome, in the face of this situation, I am afraid that it is even more than enough. Now = all Israel can count on is the protection of American warships, but this protection, I'm afraid, will not last long ...
What is the purpose of the Houthis?
In fact, from the geographical location of the Houthis, it has been determined that the Houthis can actually do "very little", they will certainly not be able to directly intervene in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on a large scale and exchange fire with the Israel Defense Forces like the Lebanese Allah Party.
But there is a lot that the Houthis can actually do. Although the Houthis are destined to be unable to directly intervene in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Houthis have the ability to consume the energy of the US military.
The cost of the Houthis's drones is only 20,000 US dollars, but the cost of the US military's ESSM air defense missiles is 800,000 US dollars, and if the Houthis is consumed for a long time, even if the US military has deep pockets, it will not be able to withstand this consumption.
U.S. warships will definitely need to return to their home ports for resupply, and at this time, Israel will have to take on the protection of the southern coast on its own. This will inevitably involve the IDF's plan to attack the Gaza Strip, and the Houthis can objectively help Hamas.
In fact, when we look at the Houthi attack on Israel, we must not treat the Houthis as an individual, but the entire Shiite "arc of resistance" as a whole.
Whether it is the Houthis in the south or the Lebanese Allah Party in the north, in fact, their essential purpose is the same, that is, to contain the Israel Defense Forces in one direction through raiding tactics, so that they cannot attack Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip with full force.
For Iran, the primary problem at present is not a large-scale conflict with Israel, but to maintain the existence of Hamas forces, as long as Hamas armed forces exist, then the negotiations on the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have never been carried out smoothly, and Iran's goal has been achieved.