A-shares reached 3,000 points again: shareholders ridiculed "Daxiao this time", some fund managers were unusually optimistic, and private equity firmly increased their positions

Cai Lian News Agency (Reporter Yan Jun) The Shanghai index retreated to 3,000 points, and Sheng Fengyan, manager of the Western Lide Fund, said that looking at such a market, I said to my little partner, "I want to post Weibo." The tweet, "once again unusually optimistic about the market," was posted at noon.

Sheng Fengyan said that because from the perspective of timing models, many models trigger the A-share bottoming signal. In addition, the supervision of the protection of A-shares, the rapid response to public opinion, the benefit of hundreds of billions of real money. This year's risk-free yield spectrum has dropped significantly, but the money supply is still high and other reasons to analyze, positive factors are gradually accumulating, only owed to the east wind.

At the close of trading on October 19, the three major A-share indexes hit a new low for the year, and before you knew it, the Shanghai Index reached 3,000 points, the CSI 300 also approached the low point in October last year, and the ChiNext continued to reach a new low, closing at 1913.7 points.

In the past, every time the market fell there were always investors who were happy to "find the reason", this time, foreign capital has become a clear card, northbound funds accelerated to sell, net sales of 11.704 billion yuan, becoming the third single-day reduction of more than 10 billion yuan in this year, 5 consecutive days of net selling accumulated nearly 29 billion yuan. The outflow of more than 10 billion yuan from the north, the killing and falling on the big blue chips drove the index downward.

Regardless of the reason, the loss of money really happens to investors, whether it is the basic people or the shareholders, there is only one feeling: "the fall is numb", and the 3,000-point defense battle has begun.

3,000 points of beings

In fact, not only Li Daxiao's view of the market is "A shares should cherish the time below 3100 points", many market participants have previously judged that the Shanghai Index can quickly stand at 3100 points, but it backfired, since August 21, the Shanghai Index has been hovering around 3100 points, accelerating downward on October 12, approaching 3000 points again.

Some netizens turned on the reverse mockery, "Daxiao is still accurate this time, saying that you can't see 3100 points, you really can't open it." ”

Although the general decline, the decline of the "leading big brother" Kweichow Moutai has attracted more attention from the market. In the morning, Kweichow Moutai jumped low, and then there was a rumor of "10% growth rate in the fourth quarter", which continued to decline for a day, falling by 5.67% throughout the day, and the stock price hit the largest one-day decline in nearly a year.

Although Kweichow Moutai refuted the rumor that the performance growth rate was declining after the market, private equity tycoon Ge Weidong previously issued a "uncomfortable, quit drinking!" The screenshot was forwarded by netizens, expressing their feelings about the market and the decline of liquor. However, for the decline of Kweichow Moutai, some investors believe that it is a compensatory decline at the end of the market downward, and faith collapses in the end, and then it can be rebuilt.

The private placement rhetoric was more radical, and the big V Dong Baozhen issued a statement and appeal at 3,000 points in the name of Lingtong Shengtai Company. The article said that China's stock market contains the low-valued sectors of the world's largest investment opportunities, and believes that there is no internal power in the market to achieve an autonomous reversal, and only external funds can strongly reverse the difficult situation. When he spoke of external funding as "national funds", he called for the inclusion of the equalization fund.

In fact, in the second half of this year, in order to further activate the capital market and boost investor confidence, we can see obvious policy launches and implementations.

Taking the CSRC as an example, a package of policy arrangements has been issued:

On the investment side, the registration conditions for index funds have been relaxed, the development efficiency of index funds has been improved, fund managers have been encouraged to increase product innovation, and the speed of approval has been accelerated, and it can be seen that the market includes the release of the CSI 2000 Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index and the landing of related ETF products, and the Shenzhen Securities 50 Index, repurchase and other series of indexes are also being launched one after another, and product declarations are also being made.

Promote the comprehensive implementation of the reform of public fund rates, reduce the level of management fees, the management fee of equity funds will generally reach 1.2%, and floating rate products will be approved and enter the issuance period. Under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, public funds and securities firm asset management have increased their efforts to purchase equity funds, and up to now, the self-purchase amount of 33 public securities company asset management has reached 2 billion.

On the trading side, the reduction of securities transaction handling fees and the halving of stamp duty have been implemented, and the three red lines strictly regulate the illegal reduction of holdings by listed companies, and continuously optimize transaction supervision.

For example, when the market has doubts about individual businesses such as quantification and securities lending, the regulator has introduced a programmatic transaction reporting system to double the margin ratio of private securities lending.

From past experience, there is a certain lag from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, and some insiders believe that the lag time is as short as one month, as long as half a year or even a year, and patience is still required in the bottoming stage.

Is it time to be most pessimistic? There are private placements that buck the trend and increase their positions

In the face of the same market, the pessimists are right, and the optimists move forward. There are private placements such as Dong Baozhen who shouted hoarsely, private placements such as Dingtai may temporarily recommend investors to redeem, and private placements such as Wu Yuefeng see the opportunity in the market and choose to increase their positions.

On October 19, Wu Yuefeng, investment director of Jiayue, posted on social platforms, "I finished the remaining bullets, but I was relaxed and flashed, and I will review this blog post a year later."

The CaiLian News Agency reporter learned that Wu Yuefeng chose to increase his position at the current time node. He said that the current A-share is in a large bottom range can be determined. There are only two problems that need to be solved in the short term: first, the underpinning of the economy needs to be further observed, such as when the real estate industry will be cleared, and the economy is recovering at present, but the progress is lower than expected; Second, the impact of the US interest rate hike on the domestic market will remain for a long time.

"It's a consensus that the bottom is out, but how long it takes to climb out of the bottom, fund managers have their own differences. This bottoming may be a long-term slow upward process, so a lot of money has no incentive to go left. Wu Yuefeng explained that the left side of the capital is that the capital is set for half a year or a year, and the impact of the cost on the net value will be relatively large, which is also related to the lack of incremental funds in the market.

Also optimistic is Sheng Fengyan, who posted on social platforms shortly after the afternoon open: again unusually optimistic. He wrote: As of the noon close on October 19, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3021.55, a new low for the year and one step away from 3,000 points. Looking at such a market, I said to my friends, "I want to post Weibo."

First of all, from the timing model, many models trigger the A-share bottoming signal. All A market capitalization/M2 signal trigger, A-share PB valuation trigger, major shareholders net increase trigger, stock-bond price ratio trigger.

Secondly, there are a lot of weird things around me. Those who sing too much are scolded, and those who are bearish are praised. The market is almost immune to the positives. The supervision of A-shares, the rapid response to public opinion, and the benefits of hundreds of billions of real money have made me feel like a "domineering president spoils his wife", and A-shares are a little difficult to coax during this time.

Third, the risk-free yield spectrum has declined significantly this year, but the money supply remains high. Positive factors are accumulating. Only the east wind is owed.

There are already high-performing fund managers considering opening purchase restrictions

Around the current market "no incremental funds" is one of the biggest pain points, look back?

After analyzing the capital structure, Bosera Fund believes that the pressure of foreign capital outflow in the third quarter is greater, and there is still no incremental capital in the market in the future.

From the perspective of the capital structure in the third quarter, the market shrinkage game is under great pressure.

First, the northbound capital outflow in the third quarter was large, with an outflow of more than 120 billion yuan since the beginning of August;

Second, the new issuance scale of partial equity public funds is hovering at a low level, and the pressure of public offering redemption is greater;

Third, the position of private equity funds is still in a low position;

Fourth, the activity of the two financial transactions has improved slightly.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Bosera Fund believes that there is still no incremental capital in the market market. Among them, the core point of foreign capital, under the influence of the end point of the US dollar interest rate and geopolitical fluctuations, there is still pressure on foreign capital to outflow.

Ping An Fund released a summary comment after market hours on October 19, the market is 3005 points, the valuation is also close to the level of 2008, low valuation + low performance + policy stimulus, which is the current state of the capital market. It can be predicted that the economic pressure will not be removed, the capital market is not active enough, and the stimulus policy will not stop, which is conducive to further boosting the market risk appetite.

The current economic stability is inseparable from the help of policies, considering that the current fundamentals drive economic growth momentum is relatively weak, so the further recovery of the economy is still inseparable from the support of policies. Ping An Fund believes that the restoration of market confidence is not achieved overnight, and "wave-like development and tortuous progress" is still the main theme of economic recovery.

Even if there are challenges ahead, at the 3,000 level, the agency generally believes that there is no reason to continue to be pessimistic. The CaiLian News Agency reporter learned that there are currently high-performing fund managers considering opening purchase restrictions to provide investors with opportunities for low-point layout.

Li Jian, a researcher at the asset allocation department of China Commercial Fund, believes that when there is a lot of information around him, he can think backwards, the current market sentiment, or remind himself not to blindly follow the signal. When the vast majority of market participants are relatively hesitant, this means that there may be an opportunity to buy high-quality assets at extremely cheap prices that have little selling pressure.

(Cai Lian News Agency reporter Yan Jun)