According to information from the Russian side, there was a conflict recently. On the evening of the 3rd local time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an attack in the direction of Orekhovsky in the Zaporozhye region. At the same time, there is information that in the Donetsk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine massively shelled two areas. Judging by these signs, it seems that Ukraine is planning a "two-front counterattack" with simultaneous offensives in the Donetsk region and Zaporozhye region. However, at present, the effect of this "counterattack" is not obvious. The Ukrainian offensive has reportedly stopped, while Russian defenders have destroyed many Ukrainian armored vehicles and some tanks. At the same time, fighting persists in the Bakhmut region.
In fact, holding the last 3 square kilometers does not give Ukraine a strategic advantage, taking into account the loss of a large number of positions. On the contrary, it could lead to huge casualties in Ukraine with no real gains. In my opinion, war should be decisive and wise. When the situation is no longer reversible, it may be wiser to retreat to save the lives of soldiers and preserve strength for future counterattacks. Hesitation and continued stubborn resistance will only lead to more casualties among soldiers and weaken the strength of subsequent attacks.
According to the description of the Russian side, Ukraine may launch an offensive in the coming period, especially from the direction of Red Liman and Zaporozhye. At the moment, the Ukrainian Air Force, missile units and artillery units have begun to carry out long-range strikes to clear targets such as Russian logistics units, especially ammunition depots. This coincides with Russia's actions. Earlier, there was information that the second round of Russian air strikes was mainly aimed at ammunition depots in Ukraine. In addition, Russia has also dispatched a large number of Tu-95 strategic bombers and achieved good results. The current situation on the front lines may be described as "poised for action", with fighting heating up and more intense clashes likely to erupt at any time.
However, some problems arose in the rear, especially with regard to the statements of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to Ukrainian sources, Zelensky said during his visit to Finland that he believes that an offensive will soon begin and expects aircraft support from the West. However, such remarks raise some doubts. First, it seems unreasonable to provide aircraft support before the conflict breaks out, as aircraft take time to deliver and may be monitored by Russia during a conflict. In the absence of air force support, Ukraine's counterattack could be more difficult, resulting in more casualties. Therefore, relying on the West for aircraft support is not a responsible strategy.
In addition, although Zelensky firmly believes that he will receive the support of the West, there is no news of "providing fighter support" from the outside world. On the whole, even if Ukraine begins to fight back, it should not rely too much on aircraft support. The best strategy may be to secure sufficient air support before starting a conflict.
(Text/Kotetsu)