Tanzania is a country in eastern Africa with abundant natural resources and tourism resources, but its level of economic development is low and its infrastructure is insufficient. In order to improve the country's development situation, Tanzania has established friendly and cooperative relations with China, and China has provided Tanzania with a lot of assistance and investment, the most important of which is the Bagamoyo port project.
The Bagamoyo Port Project is one of China's key assistance projects in Tanzania and an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Located on Tanzania's eastern coast, 75 kilometers from the Port of Dar es Salaam, the project is an important hub connecting East Africa and global trade. The project is jointly undertaken by China Merchants International Co., Ltd. and Oman's National Reserve Fund, with a total investment of US$10 billion. The project includes the construction of infrastructure such as docks,, warehouses, supporting facilities, and the development of special economic zones. After the completion of the project, it will help promote the economic development and trade exchanges between Tanzania and neighboring countries, and will also provide more convenient and stable infrastructure support for Chinese enterprises to invest and expand their business in Africa.
However, in 2019, the Tanzanian government abruptly announced the termination of contracts with Chinese companies and instead negotiated new partnerships with countries such as the UK and Japan. This decision not only caused China to suffer huge economic losses, but also surprised the world. Why should Tanzania abandon Chinese investment? What impact did this decision have had on Tanzania? This article will analyze from four levels: economic, political, diplomatic and strategic.
Economic dimension
From an economic point of view, Tanzania's abandonment of Chinese investment is an unwise choice. First of all, China is Tanzania's largest trading partner and one of the largest foreign investors, and there are extensive and in-depth economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. According to the World Bank, bilateral trade between China and Tanzania reached US$3.87 billion in 2019, accounting for 15.5% of Tanzania's total trade. In the same year, China's FDI stock in Tanzania reached US$6.78 billion, accounting for 25.6% of Tanzania's FDI stock. Chinese investment projects in Tanzania are involved in many fields, including infrastructure, energy, mining, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, etc., which have created a large number of local employment opportunities and tax revenue. China has also provided concessional loans and gratuitous assistance to Tanzania to support its development of social undertakings such as education, medical care and agriculture. China has also actively participated in Tanzania's debt relief work to help it ease its financial pressure.
Secondly, the Bagamoyo Port Project is an important driver of Tanzania's economic development, and its abandonment will result in huge economic losses and opportunity costs. The Bagamoyo Port Project is one of the largest infrastructure projects in Tanzania, and its construction will greatly improve Tanzania's transportation efficiency and logistics capacity, reduce transportation costs and time, and increase trade volume and revenue. According to China's Ministry of Commerce, the project is expected to create 280,000 jobs in Tanzania and contribute $1 billion in annual revenue to the region. The project will also drive economic development in the surrounding areas, promote industrialization and urbanization, and improve people's living standards. The project will also enhance Tanzania's presence in Africa and globally for regional cooperation and integration among neighboring countries and other countries. The project will also provide more convenient and stable infrastructure support for Chinese investment and business expansion in Africa, and enhance friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Africa. Therefore, Tanzania's abandonment of the project means not only giving up Chinese capital and technology, but also giving up an opportunity to change its fate and status.
Finally, Tanzania's shift to countries such as the UK and Japan may not necessarily yield better economic benefits. On the one hand, countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan do not provide more or more favorable aid and investment than China, and often attach more political conditions and requirements, limiting Tanzania's autonomy and development space. On the other hand, the motivation for cooperation in countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan is not purely to help Tanzania develop, but out of concern and containment of China's influence in Africa, as well as competition for and control of African resources and markets. Therefore, Tanzania's cooperation with countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan does not guarantee that its economic and security interests are effectively guaranteed, but may fall into greater difficulties and risks.
In summary, from an economic point of view, Tanzania's abandonment of Chinese investment is an unwise choice, which will lead to huge economic losses and opportunity costs, as well as the loss of a reliable partner and development opportunities. Tanzania should reconsider its decision-making, restore friendly and cooperative relations with China, and jointly promote the construction of the Bagamoyo port project, so as to contribute to the economic development and prosperity of both sides and Africa at large.
Political level
At the political level, Tanzania's abandonment of Chinese investment is a precarious option. First of all, this decision is due to political changes in Tanzania and external pressures. In October 2019, Tanzanian President John Magufuli died suddenly, and Vice President Samia Suluhu took over as President. After Suluhu came to power, he adjusted or revoked some of the policies of the Magufuli period, including cooperation with China on the Bagamoyo port project. Suluhu believes that the project is too large and expensive, and will put too much debt burden on Tanzania. She has also been influenced and intervened by Western countries such as the United States, Britain, and Japan, which are dissatisfied with China's expansion in Africa and try to induce or threaten African countries to sever or reduce cooperative relations with China. As a result, Suluhu decided to terminate contracts with Chinese companies and instead negotiate new partnerships with countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan.
Second, the decision caused dissatisfaction and opposition in Tanzania. Many people in Tanzania support the cooperation with China to build the Bagamoyo port project, believing that it is a good project for national development and improvement of people's livelihood. They believe that Suluhu's decision is motivated by personal or political interests, not national or national interests, and is disrespectful and betrayal of Magufuli, unfriendly and dishonest to China, and irresponsible and irrational to Tanzania. They also worry that Suluhu's decision will damage Tanzania's relations with China, affect cooperation and exchanges in other fields, and weaken Tanzania's standing and reputation in Africa and globally. Therefore, they asked Suluhu to reconsider his decision, resume cooperation with China, and continue to advance the construction of the Bagamoyo port project.
Finally, this decision also provoked dissatisfaction and reaction from China. China expresses regret and disappointment at Tanzania's decision, believing that it is unfair and disrespectful to China and harmful to the friendly and cooperative relations between the two sides. China pointed out that the Bagamoyo port project was reached on the basis of Tanzania's initiative and full consultations, which is in line with the common interests and aspirations of both sides. China has invested a lot of capital, technology and human resources in this project, providing preferential conditions and services for the Tanzanian side. China did not attach any political conditions or demands to the project, nor did it force or deceive the Tanzanian side to make any promises or concessions. China followed market principles and international rules in this project, and did not infringe upon or harm the sovereignty or interests of the Tanzanian side. Therefore, China demands that Tanzania respect the contract signed between the two sides, fulfill its obligations and responsibilities, properly handle matters related to the project, protect China's legitimate rights and interests, and safeguard the friendly and cooperative relations between the two sides.
To sum up, from a political point of view, Tanzania's abandonment of Chinese investment is an unstable choice, which will lead to domestic and foreign dissatisfaction and opposition, affecting its political stability and social harmony. Tanzania should reconsider its decision-making, restore friendly and cooperative relations with China, jointly promote the construction of the Bagamoyo port project, and contribute to the political, security and trust cooperation between the two sides and even Africa.
Sannia's abandonment of Chinese investment means not only giving up an opportunity to jointly address strategic risks and challenges with China, but also an opportunity to jointly safeguard peace and development in Africa with China.
Finally, this decision has also increased Tanzania's strategic dependence and constraints. Tanzania's switch to working with countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan does not mean that it will be able to get more or better support and help. Britain, Japan and other countries do not really care about Tanzania's security and interests, but out of concern and containment of China's influence in Africa, as well as the competition for and control of African resources and markets. When countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan provide assistance or investment to Tanzania, they often attach more political conditions or requirements, which limits Tanzania's autonomy and development space. Britain, Japan and other countries may also use Tanzania as a pawn or proxy to create or exacerbate contradictions and conflicts in Africa and undermine Africa's stability and unity. Therefore, Tanzania's cooperation with the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries does not guarantee that its strategic and security interests are effectively guaranteed, but may increase its strategic dependence and constraints.
To sum up, from a strategic perspective, Tanzania's abandonment of Chinese investment is an unwise choice, which will lead to a decline in strategic position and influence, an increase in strategic risks and challenges, and an increase in strategic dependence and constraints. Tanzania should reconsider its decision-making, restore friendly and cooperative relations with China, jointly promote the construction of the Bagamoyo port project, and contribute to the strategic development and cooperation between the two sides and even Africa.