If the number of marriages reaches a new low, will the number of births fall below the 8 million mark?

Text|Markzhi

Both the number of births and marriages hit new lows.

According to the latest statistical bulletin released by the National Health Commission, the number of births in the country in 2022 was 9.56 million, falling below 10 million for the first time since 1978, a new low.

At the same time, according to the latest statistical bulletin issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, 6.835 million marriages were registered in accordance with the law throughout the year, down 10.6% from the previous year and hitting a new low since data began in 1986.

The number of births reached a record low, leading to negative growth in the mainland's total population for the first time since 1962.

Although negative population growth has long been a consensus, the official agency predicted the time to be 2028, and most of the private sector is expected to be around 2025 at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

Now that negative growth has arrived early, the severity of the situation can be seen.

According to the number of people in various places, the number of births this year may further decline, and it will fall below 9 million or even 8 million in the future, or it will be a high probability event.

Compared with the birth population falling below the 10 million mark, the proportion of one child has fallen below half of the country, and the supporting momentum from the second and third children is also weakening.

According to official data, in 2022, 38.9% of the population born with two children, 15.0% with three children and above, and 46.1% with one child.

From an absolute point of view, from 2020 to 2022, both the second child and the third child have dropped significantly, and the first child has dropped to a new low.

One child: 5.16 million→ 4.683 million→ 4.407 million

Second child: 5.352 million→ 4.397 million→3.719 million

Three children: 1.488 million→ 1.54 million→ 1.434 million

It can be seen that any stress response to the policy is difficult to sustain for a long time, the accumulation effect of the second child has faded, the stimulation effect of the third child is relatively limited, and the willingness to have children of the first child has always been difficult to improve.

After all, if there is no one child, why two children and three children? If a family is unwilling to have even one child, the results of the policy of encouraging two and three children will be greatly reduced.

What's more severe is that not only is the one-child birth declining, many young people are not even willing to get married.

Behind the decline in the number of marriages are dominated by three factors:

First, the decline in the young population and the shrinking of the marriageable population naturally led to a decline in the number of marriages, which coincided with the birth situation of one or two decades ago;

Second, the national average age of first marriage is also constantly delaying, and many young people choose not to get married, even if the age of marriage is constantly delayed.

According to Qipu data, the national average age of first marriage in 2020 was 28.67 years old, compared with 24.89 years in 2010, and the overall delay was nearly 4 years;

Third, there is an imbalance in the sex ratio.

Data from the seventh national census show that there are more than 30 million more men than women in the country.

The extra 30 million men are concentrated in the post-80s, post-90s, post-00s and other groups, which also makes the imbalance between supply and demand in the marriage market, and the emergence of sky-high bride prices and other problems is not unrelated.

The impact of record lows in marriages and low births is far-reaching.

First, the concentration of low birthrate and aging is bound to increase the burden of old-age care, bringing great pressure to the pension that is already very heavy;

Second, the competition for urban population will become more intense. The robbery war, from having a share, has become a zero-sum game. In the past, they were all grabbing highly educated talents, and in the future, as long as it is a labor force, I am afraid that they will not refuse.

Third, population is the long-term anchor of housing prices. There are fewer young people, there are not enough takeovers, and it may be more and more difficult for the real estate market to return to the historical peak in the future.