I, the hero of the world, read this article, my heart is mixed, and I can't help but want to continue to write a few strokes. It is strange to say that the economy of the United States, a large country, may usher in a collapse even more terrible than the Great Depression of the thirties of the last century. I asked myself curiously, what is the U.S. economy all about? So, I started my thoughts and searched for the truth.
Looking at it, I have to admit that the U.S. economy is facing some problems. While headline inflationary pressures have eased, core inflation risks remain a big concern; Banking risks are also rising, and a large number of mortgages issued by small and medium-sized banks may fall into trouble because the Fed maintains high interest rates for a long time, causing an overall economic downturn. Looking at this series of questions, I couldn't help but worry in my heart, as if I saw a dark cloud hanging over the future of the United States.
I also want to admit that the resilience of the US economy cannot be underestimated. As the associate researcher Yang Zirong said, although the US economy has slowed down or even declined in some areas, it does not occur in all areas at the same time, so the US economy can still get relatively stable support. Hearing this, my heart suddenly lit up, as if I saw a glimmer of hope.
Moreover, despite the Fed's fastest rate hike in nearly four decades, monetary policy is not overly restrictive, and there is a time lag effect, which means that the impact of the Fed's rate hike has not yet been fully transmitted to the real economy. Thinking of this, I can't help but secretly rejoice that perhaps the US economy still has a glimmer of life.
Not long ago, the World Bank raised its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 1.1 percent. In addition, the IMF's forecast also shows that the US economy will grow by 1.8% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. Hearing this data, I couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief for the future of the U.S. economy. Perhaps it is too early to conclude that the U.S. economy will collapse or not.
Nor can I close my eyes and deny the challenges facing the U.S. economy. If the United States continues to engage in "decoupling and breaking the chain" in the future and build a small courtyard wall, then the resilience of the US economy cannot withstand this consumption. Isn't it obvious that only when I am open and cooperative can we truly bring prosperity?
As the researcher Mei Xinyu said, the most important and crucial thing in international competition is not to "stumble" other countries, but to improve themselves. However, the main energy of the United States is not to improve its own economic efficiency, but to constantly restrict China and set up obstacles to China's development, which is simply asking for trouble, creating unnecessary regulatory and political risks, raising corporate costs, and reducing the incentive for investment and innovation. Hearing these words, I can't help but sweat for the choice of the United States.
I was slightly relieved that while the outlook for the U.S. economy was cloudy, many international institutions were optimistic about the Chinese economy. I heard that Citibank raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 4.7% to 5%. This, they said, was due to the stabilization of a number of economic indicators and the recent introduction by the Chinese government of a series of policy measures to support economic growth. As a result, China's retail and industrial production may improve, manufacturing is expected to emerge from the trough, and exports may decline less. Hearing this good news, I couldn't help but flutter my eyebrows, as if I saw the dawn of China's economy.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Alan Greenspan also said they do not have very pessimistic forecasts for China's economy. They argue that China, unlike other countries, has a lot of fiscal space and therefore still has the means to rebound the economy and gain support. Hearing these words, I can't help but admire that China's development prospects are really bright.
The recent Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday highlights the vitality of China's economic recovery. According to official data, a total of 826 million trips were made to China during this year's Super "Golden Week", an increase of 71.3% year-on-year. Tourism revenue increased by 129.5% year-on-year. Hearing these exciting numbers, I can't help but feel proud of the strong recovery of China's economy.
Today, the future of the U.S. economy remains uncertain, while China's economy is showing strong recovery momentum. I know that no matter what kind of country's economy can be achieved by fantasy and imagination, it requires real efforts and wisdom. Let us all hope that the United States can adjust its strategy in a timely manner, embark on the path of openness and cooperation, and achieve economic stability and prosperity.
Zhu Xi once said: "Goodness is like water, and water is good for all things." This old saying is the best interpretation of open cooperation. May we all cherish opportunities, abandon strife, and work together to create a harmonious and prosperous world.
(Text/Li Xiaoyu continued/ChatGPT)