As self-media creators, we will examine the recent emotional outbursts of Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, and his attacks on the Russian defense leadership. We will analyse this incident and clarify some of the uncertainties.
Recently, Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, suddenly burst into emotions, and he angrily cursed the Russian defense top brass on a battlefield, specifically naming Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Army Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. His dissatisfaction stemmed from the fact that Wagner's mercenaries were fighting on the front lines, but faced with insufficient logistics and ammunition. Subsequently, Prigozhin once again stated that Wagner's achievements last year were "jealous" of the Russian Ministry of Defense, so some high-level officials prevented the supply of weapons and ammunition to Wagner, resulting in a shortfall of up to 90% in the ammunition supply rate. The incident has sparked speculation about divisions and rivalries within Russia, but we need a deeper analysis of these claims.
In fact, the artillery of the Wagner mercenary group was relatively limited and relied mainly on artillery support from the regular Russian army. Therefore, Prigozhin's claim that the Ministry of Defense does not supply ammunition does not seem to be established. Recently, the Ukrainian side released videos showing Russian troops using the BM21 multiple launch rocket artillery system firing a large number of thermite incendiary bombs at Ukrainian army positions, covering some Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut. This intense artillery support does not appear to be a manifestation of a lack of ammunition, so the issue of ammunition supply by the Wagner mercenary group may require a more detailed review.
In addition, Prigozhin's claim that the flank emptiness of the Wagner mercenary group also raised suspicions. In fact, the flanks of the Wagner mercenary group are supported by a large number of elite air assault units of the Russian army. Normally, one of the parties to the conflict does not disclose in advance the exact date of withdrawal from the position, let alone reveal its flaws. Therefore, Prigozhin's remarks need to be explored in more depth.
Another striking news is that Mizintsev, the former deputy defense minister of logistics of the Russian army, was recently dismissed and is now revealed to have joined the Wagner mercenary group as a deputy commander. The personnel change has led to some interesting speculation. However, it is indeed puzzling that Mizintsev, who was previously dismissed from office, according to the outside world due to problems with the supply of ammunition, now joins the Wagner mercenary group, which claims to lack ammunition. Tactics and tactics in military operations are often volatile and often elusive.
To sum up, while Prigozhin's remarks have sparked a lot of speculation, caution is also required. The fighting situation in the Bakhmut region is already progressing well, and the decision not to retreat may be aimed at continuing to deplete the living forces of the Ukrainian army. Although the Ukrainian side may know that this may be a "pocket array", political factors may influence their decision-making. Western countries have provided a lot of support and may ask Ukraine to stand its ground. In addition, the Ukrainian army, despite shouting several large-scale offensives in the spring, has so far failed to achieve significant victories. Therefore, this action will determine the direction of the future war.