American think tank: There is a change on the border between Russia and North Korea, and the Ukrainian army loses 400,000-500,000
Shortly after Kim's trip to Russia, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based think tank, cited the latest commercial satellite photos and claimed that train traffic between North Korea and Russia had increased "dramatically" to "unprecedented" levels.
[CSIS think tank released a report on abnormal movements on the Russian-North Korean border]
So much so that a number of Western media outlets, including CBS, have said that North Korea is likely to have begun to supply weapons and ammunition to Russia to support Russia's new offensive operations.
Although this speculation in the Western media generally lacks strong evidence support, it is indeed entirely possible from the current strategic situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Because after a long counteroffensive that lasted four months, the losses of Ukrainian troops on the front line have reached a very high level. Many Western think tanks have even speculated that the number of casualties in Ukraine may have reached 400,000-500,000, and the total number of casualties may be close to 1 million.
This is a very scary figure for the Ukrainian army at this stage. Because before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine only maintained 200,000-250,000 active troops per year. After the outbreak of the conflict, this number surged to 700,000, complemented by a series of mobilizations.
【Ukrainian Cemetery of the Fallen in War】
However, the large number of Ukrainian professional servicemen who replaced them suffered casualties in the early stages of the conflict, and those mobilized soldiers who lacked veteran-assisted training could not independently adapt to the high-intensity confrontation line on the front line, further increasing the casualties of the Ukrainian army. So much so that the Ukrainian army had to compensate for losses at the front with constant mobilization.
However, the problem is that excessive personnel turnover and rapid replacement will make it difficult for combat units to retain and pass on experience, thereby improving the combat effectiveness of the troops. At the same time, large-scale mobilization will draw a large number of social labor from the rear, which will have a non-negligible negative impact on the entire social operating mechanism.
[Ukraine's mobilization system has a negative impact on the functioning of society]
A series of factors have led Ukraine to fall into a state of more mobilization, more deaths, and more difficult to maintain the front line. When this state of affairs reaches a certain threshold, it will not only be difficult for Ukraine to continue to organize a large-scale counteroffensive, but it will also become a questionable question whether it can keep the existing defense line in place.
In addition to personnel, the loss of equipment of the Ukrainian army cannot be ignored. After all, at this stage, Ukraine has basically lost the production capacity of military vehicles. What kind of vehicles the front-line troops can ride in depends entirely on what vehicles NATO can provide. Since the vast majority of NATO military aid vehicles and weapons have been exhausted in the four-month counterattack, even if the Ukrainian army does not face personnel problems, the absolute disadvantage in equipment will still face the Kiev government. The defensive pressure is huge.
[Ukrainian NATO equipment destroyed by Russian troops]
It can be said that at this stage, the Russian army is facing an excellent opportunity to counterattack, and Moscow intends to make the situation on the front line more favorable to itself. Therefore, even if the Russian army does not organize a large-scale counterattack that can directly hit the Dnieper, launching a small-scale counterattack on a series of important towns will become an urgent decision.
Therefore, it is necessary for Russia to prepare for a possible counterattack. Taking into account the latest battlefield video shows, the Russian BM-30 Tornado rocket artillery unit has begun to massively use precision-guided munitions to attack important tactical targets and troop assembly points near the front line of the Ukrainian army.
[Russian BM-30 rocket launcher attacks Ukrainian infantry assembly point]
We have reason to believe that the Russian army is consciously strengthening the ability of front-line troops to accurately strike targets at a radius of 100 kilometers. thereby weakening the overall combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army.
However, although Russia's ammunition production capacity is relatively abundant, Moscow has invested relatively little in precision-guided munitions and supporting long-range ammunition, so that before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the number of Russian long-range ammunition and supporting long-range ammunition was not even as much as North Korea's. Even if Moscow carries out wartime mobilization, Russia's domestic weapons and ammunition production capacity will not be able to meet the firepower needs of more than 100,000 combat troops on the front line in a short period of time.
This is why after the meeting between the leaders of Russia and North Korea, it is widely believed that Russia will purchase a large amount of ammunition from North Korea. Since North Korea also has excellent long-range firepower technology, the introduction of a batch of long-range rocket artillery and its supporting ammunition can greatly relieve the pressure on Russia's long-range missile ammunition production capacity. This allows the Russian army at the front to prepare for the offensive faster.
【North Korean KN-09 300mm long-range rocket launcher】
Of course, North Korea did not give Russia these weapons and ammunition for nothing. It's just that the means of payment in Russia are not rubles, nor dollars, but technology.
After all, the "nuclear attack" submarines launched by North Korea some time ago can only solve the problem of North Korea's underwater nuclear strike forces. If North Korea wants to further build its own nuclear deterrent system around underwater strike forces, North Korea will inevitably need more advanced silent technology, satellite technology, and even nuclear reactor technology.
Unfortunately, these are all owned by Russia, as long as Russia can agree with North Korea on relevant issues. Therefore, while North Korea's weapons and ammunition are shipped to Russia, Russia's technical equipment will also flow to North Korea continuously, enhancing the latter's overall strength in related fields.
It can be said that as Russia's exchanges with North Korea become closer and closer, the appearance of North Korean weapons on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is no longer a question of "if", but a question of "when". And when things really develop to this point, Russia's relations with the West, North Korea and the West will enter a completely new stage. The situation in the world as a whole will also turn a new page.