Tan Yaling: What is the intention of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?

During the holiday period, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict caused great market changes, especially the tossing of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations became the focus. However, through the observation of the long-term strategic use of the dollar, it is worth thinking that the dollar will not destroy its own strategy, at this time, the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict seems to have the risk of the dollar's intention to defect, that is, the euro cannot survive and increase the risk of disintegration, which is the key time for future currency competition.

First, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict triggered the timing of the oil price, which was intended. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which seems to be a sensitive and scorching event before the 90s, is now bursting into war at a time when international oil prices are in contention, and the destructive oil supply generated by the geographical location of Palestine and Israel is self-evident. Before the superposition of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict seemed to be associated with oil, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to high global inflation, and the tightening currency of major developed countries is the currency option of oil-led inflation, which is very serious for the uncertainty of global stability and the suppression of market confidence. Today, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has pulled the easing of rising oil inflation into extreme markets again.

As Agustin Carstens, managing director of BIS, said, international oil and global stock markets may be hit by a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Among them, the 4% increase in crude oil prices in the international market on October 9 has been verified. Palestine and Israel are important parameters in the Middle East, the Middle East is the world's major oil-producing areas, and the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz are the location of major international shipping lanes, and the region's response to Iran, Saudi Arabia, which has an important position in the global oil producer and trading country, will be an important correlation to judge the rise in crude oil prices in the future. The bond and stock market that had been accompanied by an increase in international oil prices also showed the significant impact of the market on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

In particular, when the IMF's autumn report downgraded world economic growth and economic growth except the United States declined, international oil prices with a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict once again suppressed global economic confidence. The future impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will become clearer over time, but the duration, intensity and spillover of the conflict to other regions are global economic and financial headwinds, and the spillover nature of this conflict directly points to the logic and correlation of international oil prices.

Second, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has exacerbated geopolitical relations, but the essence of the strategy is currency. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict coincided with the most difficult period of the euro area's economy and policies, stagflation is called stagnation inflation, stagflation refers to stagnation of economic growth, inflation refers to inflation. In macroeconomic management, economic stagnation and high inflation accompanied by unemployment and sluggish economic phenomena are difficult historical problems, and they are also the concerns of major countries in the world except the United States, as is the case with the current situation in the euro area.

On the one hand, the overall economy of the euro area is weak, or even negative growth, and the so-called recession fears have deepened; On the other hand, the economic differentiation between the major countries in the region is becoming more and more serious, and the leading country, the German economy, is the most important. These two aspects will make the euro face the risk of stagflation is inevitable, stagflation economic development is slow and inflation is difficult to eliminate coexist, policy response and combination is expansionary fiscal policy and contractionary monetary policy, but this is worse for the euro area economy, and the euro area does not have a unified fiscal policy, not to mention the fiscal deficit is the difficulty and resistance of the lack of monetary policy cooperation in the euro area.

Especially for stagflation, the effect of fiscal policy is far better than that of monetary policy, and stimulating economic growth through measures such as increasing fiscal spending or tax cuts is the key to emergency relief, followed by moderate interest rate hikes to control inflation. However, the international oil factor relative to the eurozone's source of inflation is the danger of deadly monetary looseness. On the one hand, the euro area's dependence on oil is a short board, oil and other related factors are the main cause of euro inflation, and the dependence of countries on oil accounts for about 87%, and euro inflation is the core parameter due to high oil. At present, eurozone inflation is still above 5%, which is less than 4% inflation in the United States, and the European Central Bank may have to raise interest rates.

On the other hand, international oil prices have entered a new round of rising cycle, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict aggravates the oil surge will be the euro in danger, the euro cooperation framework due to loose inflation or the design of the dollar, after all, oil quotations are determined by the dollar, and the Fed wants to raise interest rates just need oil prices to fuel the waves. After the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Chevron shut down production of a natural gas field in Israel at the request of the Israeli government, which directly reduced the supply of the eastern Mediterranean region, and the impact of yesterday's natural gas field supply caused a sharp rise in European natural gas, and then the price of natural gas in the United States followed. At the end of the European market, ICE UK gas futures rose 14.74% to 108.420 pence/kcal, once rising to 111.800 pence, up about 19.90% in two trading days.

TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 19.02 percent, the biggest gain in seven weeks, at 43.620 euros/MWh, rising as high as 44.300 euros at one point, up about 20.20 percent in two days. German electricity prices rose 9.2% to €106.45 per MWh in November as gas prices rose. ICE EU emissions trading permits (futures prices) rose 1.45% to Eur81.63/mt. Among them, US natural gas futures rose to the highest level in January, and a rebound in US inflation is imminent. The New York Mercantile Exchange Nymex closed at $3.376/MMBtu. At present, it seems that the spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli issue focuses on currency competition, which is precisely the crucial period when the dollar balances the euro and kills.

Third, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a clichéd and designed to re-globalize and reorganize. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a historical event, and the restart of the contemporary economic and global competition period seems to have design intentions and operational methods, including the aforementioned rise in international oil prices to boost inflation, and the full reason for tightening the currency is the intention of the hegemonic planning of the US dollar interest rate; It also has the rise in gold prices to assist the depreciation of the dollar, the inverse correlation of gold dollar logic is the basic framework and structural basis of finance, and gold financialization is the dollar umbrella and a good partner. Because the international oil price rise to fund the United States factors are obvious, including the US oil dependence of only 26%, oil exploitation, reserves and technology research and development are the United States leading, coupled with the US oil strategy from a high level, oil strategy release and increase oil reserve price manipulation egoism is clear, during the period there is also benchmark currency competition target pointing, the euro is at the mercy of the market will be the future market worth paying attention to the focus of the key period.

At present, the new economy of the United States is very conducive to the layout and pattern of dollar globalization, but the globalization of the United States faces uneven benefit sharing selfishness and self-reconsideration, that is, reglobalization or Palestinian-Israeli conflict with the dollar's interest rate and currency status stability and enhancement of new strategic choices. Because of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the US monopoly petrochemical and profit enterprise advantages have been controlled freely, the Fed dares to raise interest rates because of the high inflation of oil, the Fed can raise interest rates because of the high profit guarantee of enterprises, the Fed then raises interest rates due to the high position planning of interest rates, the environment and purpose behind the Palestinian-Israeli conflict or the focus of our observation, and even requires benchmarking thinking of comprehensive factors.

In fact, the pace and plan of interest rate hikes in the United States have not yet changed, on the contrary, the external currency competition has a provocation to the status of the dollar is the compassion of the dollar, and it seems that the relationship behind Palestine and Israel, the long-term battle characterized by the disappearance of the euro in the United States is coming to an end. The future winter is approaching, European energy prices are rising sharply, European natural gas soaring is not currently a Russian-Ukrainian factor, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is very clear at this time.

The renewed rise in Europe-linked energy prices is adding uncertainty to inflation and the ECB's biggest trouble and risk in the future. After all, it is the main line of oil that causes the hidden relationship between Palestine and Israel, which is the essence and logic of the problem, and Iran and Saudi Arabia and Russia in the future will be the fundamental goals and purposes of the oil-fueled reglobalization restructuring interest rate dollar position.

It is expected that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will cause high oil prices, and then the rise in commodity prices will be associated with the stimulus, in which the rise in international gold prices not only reflects safe-haven demand, but also stimulates the depreciation of the dollar, and the gold-dollar logical relationship is the key measure of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. At present, the dollar index has returned to 105 points, and gold rising back to $1900 or even $2000 will be an opportunity and strategy for the dollar to depreciate by 100 points.

At the same time, the international oil price returns to $100 or will appear soon, and even does not rule out the probability of $105-110, the future market or break through this year's low expectations oil prices are low, high oil and high inflation will boost the developed countries to tighten the monetary cycle, the Fed interest rate hike meaning and intention will be the above related design of the layout, dollar interest rate hegemony is the focus of the US economy, globalization and dollar currency resupport, but also the intention and direction of the goal of the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.