"Golden Nine" outbreak | Car companies sounded the clarion call for the fourth quarter sprint
In September, under the policies to promote consumption, purchase subsidies and preferential policies for car companies in many places across the country, many vehicle companies have also successively handed over the best sales "answers" since 2023, especially in the new energy vehicle market, and have also achieved new breakthroughs.
Text | Du Qiaomei, Gong Zhaoen
"Overall market demand in September improved from August, reflecting a positive trend in the market, with terminal retail sales of passenger cars approaching 2 million units in September, higher than the sales expected by the association at the beginning of the month." On October 9, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the new car market has released a recovery signal since June this year, and this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is better than the situation predicted at the beginning of the year.
For a long time, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has been the traditional sales season of the automobile market, and it is also an important period for car companies to sprint annual sales. Around this year's "Golden Week", from local governments to various enterprises, real money is used to subsidize consumers and drive automobile consumption.
In the past National Day "Golden Week", with the launch of many auto shows, passenger flow also ushered in a significant increase, and orders and transaction rates also increased to a certain extent.
"With the overall market sales rebound, the probability of success of new models launched in the fall has also increased, and the incremental effect of new products in the car market is relatively strong, and the supply side of products will play a positive role in sales." Major cities in various regions have also begun to layout various large and small auto shows, creating momentum for the 'Golden Nine Silver Ten', which is conducive to further growth in production and sales by stimulating consumption. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Association, told Think Tank Jun.
The passenger car retail market in September is expected to be about 1.98 million units, up 3.1% month-on-month and 3% y/y. Among them, new energy retail sales were about 750,000 units, an increase of 4.7% month-on-month and 22.3% year-on-year, and a penetration rate of about 37.9%, maintaining a stable growth trend.
"Normally, car sales in October will be slightly lower than in September, but in October this year, in order to achieve the annual target, sprint the fourth quarter results, car companies fancy promotions to boost sales. Looking forward to the 'Golden Nine Golden Ten' car consumption. Lang Xuehong told think tank Jun that the demand for the automobile market continued to release in October, and terminal sales are expected to be the same as in September.
For the fourth quarter, which has arrived, car dealers are more optimistic. According to the survey, 63.1% of dealers believe that sales in the fourth quarter increased by about 5% year-on-year, and 16.0% of dealers believe that the increase is within 10%.
"If the terminal retail sales in October are the same as in September, it means that sales in October will achieve double-digit positive year-on-year growth, and the fourth quarter of this year will also usher in the peak of sales throughout the year." Lang Xuehong expects retail sales of passenger cars to be close to 22 million units this year, a year-on-year increase of 5%.
"Golden Nine" is full of color, and new energy continues to "soar"
In September, under the policies to promote consumption, purchase subsidies and preferential policies for car companies in many places across the country, many vehicle companies have also successively handed over the best sales "answers" since 2023, especially in the new energy vehicle market, and have also achieved new breakthroughs.
A week after a number of new automakers handed over their "Golden Nine" answers on October 1, on the evening of October 8, SAIC, BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Geely Group, and Chery Automobile also released their September sales data.
Among them, SAIC, the largest automobile group in China, achieved wholesale vehicle sales of 482,000 units in September, down about 7% y/y, but continued the trend of rising month by month during the year and hit a new high for the year. From January to September this year, SAIC's cumulative sales reached 3.38 million units, continuing to lead the industry.
BYD continued to "soar" with new energy, and its sales in September reached a record high of 287,500 units second only to SAIC. In the first nine months of 2023, BYD's cumulative sales were 2.07 million units, which has exceeded that of the whole of 2022. In the first three quarters of this year, BYD has completed 69.3% of its annual sales target. In the fourth quarter of 2023, BYD needs to sell another 922,000 vehicles to complete its target, which is equivalent to an average of more than 310,000 units per month for the remaining three months.
Changan Automobile followed closely behind, with total vehicle sales of about 240,000 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 9.93%. Cumulative sales this year were approximately 1.87 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%.
At the beginning of this year, Changan Automobile Chairman Zhu Huarong publicly stated that Changan Automobile Group's sales target for 2023 is 2.8 million units, including 1 million units of Changan Automobile, 310,000 units of Changan Auchan, 400,000 units of Deep Blue, 100,000 units of Avita, 270,000 units of Changan Kaicheng, and 220,000 units overseas.
"In 2023, we have set annual targets with standards higher than the growth rate of the industry, and on the basis of ensuring the steady growth of the main brand, in the second half of the year, new energy brands will make full efforts to help achieve the annual goals." The relevant person in charge of Changan Automobile has said.
On the same day, Chery Automobile also announced its sales for September. Data show that Chery Automobile delivered a total of 190,000 new vehicles that month, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. From January to September this year, Chery Automobile's cumulative sales exceeded 1.25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters of this year have exceeded the sales volume of the whole of last year.
In addition, Great Wall Motor achieved a new sales breakthrough in September and achieved a stepwise increase in sales. Data show that in September this year, Great Wall Motor sold more than 120,000 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 29.89%; From January to September, cumulative sales exceeded 860,000 units.
It is worth noting that behind the sharp increase in sales of domestic vehicle companies, it is inseparable from the "fury" of the new energy vehicle market and breakthroughs in overseas markets.
The Passenger Association estimates that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in September this year will be 830,000 units, an increase of 23% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. According to preliminary estimates, the cumulative wholesale volume from January to September this year will be 5.92 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36%.
SAIC Motor pointed out in its sales report that the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles and overseas markets both exceeded the 100,000 mark, both hitting new highs for the year. Among them, SAIC Motor delivered 102,000 new energy vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 29.6% and a month-on-month increase of 18.8%. From January to September, SAIC Motor delivered 683,000 new energy vehicles, up 18.2% y/y.
Thanks to the rapid development of its new energy brands, Changan Automobile and Geely Group have also achieved good results in new energy sales.
Specifically, Geely Group's new energy sales and new energy penetration rate hit record highs in September. Sales of new energy vehicles (including Geely, Lynk & Co, Zeekr and Ruilan) reached 53,700 units, a year-on-year increase of about 37%, a month-on-month increase of about 14%, and new energy accounted for about 31.5%.
In particular, Geely's high-end new energy brand delivered 12,100 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 45.60%.
"We sold 70,000 vehicles last year and this year we aim for 140,000 vehicles, and although there is a lot of pressure, we have not given up. The goal is to double sales this year and double from 2024 in 2025 to achieve an annual delivery target of 650,000 units. An Conghui, CEO of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, once said.
However, from January to September this year, Zeekr Motors delivered a total of about 80,000 vehicles, only completing 57.14% of the target of 140,000 vehicles. To achieve the annual target, it is not easy for Zeekr to achieve an average monthly sales of more than 20,000 vehicles in the remaining three months.
In terms of Changan Automobile, sales of independent new energy vehicles in September were slightly lower than those of Geely Automobile, reaching 51,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 69.71%. Cumulative sales from January to September this year were 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 96.15%. Among them, Changan's Deep Blue Automobile delivered 17,300 units in September.
Although the "Golden Nine" has passed, with the continuous increase of the national consumption promotion policy, the economy continues to stabilize, and the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China has maintained a strong growth trend.
The association expects that China's new energy passenger vehicle sales will be 8.5 million units in 2023, and the annual penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 36%.
The new energy market in first-tier cities is hot, and the sinking market still needs to break through
"Judging from the 'Golden Week' market situation reported by dealers in various places, the number of visitors, customer collection and transaction are relatively good." Lang Xuehong told think tank Jun that there will be a large release of market demand in October.
In Beijing, during the "Golden Week" period, think tank Jun visited new energy vehicle supermarkets in many business districts such as Hopson Hui and Blue Harbor and found that the passenger flow of many new energy brands, including Xpeng, Lili, NIO, BYD, and Denza soared, and sales personnel were saturated.
A number of brand car sales staff also told think tank Jun that during the "Golden Week", the number of consumers entering stores to see and choose cars increased significantly, and the number of orders also increased significantly.
As the peak season of the traditional car market, during the "Eleventh" period, all car companies and dealers have used promotions to seize sales, and this year's 8-day "Golden Week" has become the climax period to promote automobile consumption, and major automobile manufacturers have seized the opportunity to stimulate the increase of passenger flow and transaction volume through various promotional offers such as price reduction and discounts, subsidies and gifts.
"This holiday is busier than the usual weekend, halfway through the holiday, there are still many consumers test drives and orders." On October 4, a salesperson in the ideal store of the automobile market on the fifth floor of Hopson Hui told Think Tank Jun.
On that day, the ideal store was crowded, and the three exhibition vehicles of the ideal L7, L8 and L9 were full of consumers who came to consult and experience, and the outside of the car was also full of consumers who entered the store for consultation and sales explained by the car.
"This 'Eleven' long holiday, all the sales staff in our store are closed." In the store of Hopson Hui Denza brand, a salesperson who had just finished explaining Denza D9 to two groups of consumers told Think Tank Jun.
Think tank Jun found from the registration form in his hand that from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. that day, more than a dozen consumers had left personal information and car purchase intentions.
In Baotou, although it is the last day of the National Day holiday, people's travel and consumption demand is still unabated.
In the Huawei store in Baotou business district, the Qianjie Auto exhibition area is very lively, and customers are watching, asking and getting on the car one after another.
Perhaps due to its location in a lower-tier city, the passenger flow and demand are limited, and the new M7, which has been on the market for less than a month, has not yet been exhibited in stores, and the in-store exhibition car is still the former "sales king" - the M5, but it still attracts more people.
In the nearly half an hour that think tank Jun was in the store, a group of guests showed great interest in the M5, in addition to going around the car to see the appearance, most of the guests chose to get on the car to observe the interior and experience the intelligent cockpit, and even appeared in line waiting to get on the car.
Although the new M7 has not yet arrived in the store, the new M7 has become the protagonist in the LED screen and promotional poster in the store, and the configuration list and quotation are available in the information bar for people's reference. When consumers ask for a quote around the M5, the in-store salesperson will also mention the M7.
New energy vehicle stores such as "Wei Xiaoli" located in the same mall are also not short of people, but compared with the crowd of Huawei stores, they are still slightly deserted.
The former store customers visit in batches, but it is not "hot", and there are fewer customers who experience getting on the bus, most of them are watching the flowers; In the latter, there was a lively scene of multiple groups of customers gathering around the exhibition car, and the "people waiting for the car" also made the car sales in the store a little busy.
In fact, the sight of an electric car receiving such attention is rare for the northern third-tier cities represented by Baotou.
On the one hand, as a northern city, Baotou's winter temperature can reach as low as minus 20 degrees, and the winter endurance of new energy vehicles is "discounted", and the extremely cold temperature is still a severe challenge for it. Therefore, consumers in colder regions in the north tend to have more concerns when purchasing new energy vehicles.
Relevant statistics show that from January to May this year, provinces and cities with a penetration rate of less than 20% of new energy vehicles, including Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Gansu, Heilongjiang and Tibet, are all cold regions.
On the other hand, the coverage of the energy replenishment network in Baotou and even the entire Inner Mongolia region is still relatively low, and the convenience of energy replenishment is more important for consumers when the cruising range is still a problem that the industry is trying to break through. In some lower-tier cities, the anxiety of charging and replacing batteries in urban areas and on highways is still one of the obstacles for consumers to buy cars.
At a time when existing technologies cannot dispel market concerns and sales are under pressure and it is difficult to open the lower-tier market, the coverage of directly-operated stores of new energy vehicle companies is also very limited.
According to statistics, as a representative of the new forces, "Wei Xiaoli" has a very limited coverage in Baotou, and there is only one. However, Qianjie has an absolute advantage in the city with the help of Huawei channels. Huawei has more than 15 authorized experience stores in Baotou, including 6 stores that can reserve test drives on Huawei's official channels.
At the same time, in lower-tier cities, Huawei gives Qianjie a higher "gold content", and most consumers who enter the store will default to this is a "Huawei car". In other words, the "Chinese content" of the question boundary has become higher and more.
Since the beginning of this year, major car companies have also begun to turn the "head" and target the sinking market. Xpeng Motors has introduced more dealers to third- and fourth-tier cities to accelerate its market share expansion in lower-tier cities, and Li Auto has also focused its work on expanding its network layout in third- and fourth-tier cities.
According to data released by Kaiyuan Securities, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in first-tier cities in China has exceeded 50%, and the new energy vehicle market tends to be saturated; In third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, the penetration rate is only about 10%, which has become a blue ocean in the automobile consumer market.
At this time, with Huawei's convenient channels and brand awareness, Qianjie seems to have opened up lower-tier cities relatively smoothly, and even begun to conquer the northwest and northeast regions with the lowest penetration rate of new energy. And this is also what the new forces of car manufacturing aspire to.
However, it should be pointed out that it is not easy for the world to maintain the hot phenomenon of the November holiday, and it is not easy to truly cultivate in the sinking market with Huawei.
According to the observation of think tank Jun, although the exhibition area in the store was surrounded by layers on that day, and customers were constantly watching, asking and getting on the car, there were no consumers and sales staff sitting down to discuss more details about booking a car, and how to convert high customer flow into an effective order rate is also a problem that needs to be considered.
Farewell to the November holiday and entering the "Silver Ten" test, how far new energy vehicles can go in the sinking market, it will eventually wait for the market to answer.
Similarly, 2023 has entered the fourth quarter, and in the face of the sales target for the whole year, from traditional car companies to new car companies, they also need to start full power and start the final sprint.