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The National Day holiday is an important holiday for Chinese people, and it is also a good time for many people to choose to travel. However, during this year's National Day holiday, oil prices have brought a lot of trouble to people who are driving. According to statistics, since 2023, domestic oil prices have been adjusted 19 times, rising more and falling less, and after the price and fall discount, 1 liter of No. 92 gasoline is estimated to cost 0.84 yuan more. This is closely related to the sharp rise in the international crude oil market. So, what will happen to oil prices after the National Day holiday? What about hog and urea prices in relation to oil prices? This article will analyze oil prices, pig prices and urea prices at home and abroad.
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Domestic and foreign oil prices
The adjustment of domestic oil prices mainly refers to the changes in the international crude oil market. According to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, when the price of crude oil in the international market changes by 4% or more, the domestic refined oil price must be adjusted accordingly. Since the beginning of this year, due to the peak season of oil consumption in the northern hemisphere, the demand for crude oil consumption in European and American economies is strong, and the growth rate of the Asian market economy is expected to be strong, while the international crude oil production capacity has been significantly reduced, and OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia and Russia have successively continued the plan to reduce daily production, which further caused the pressure of tight crude oil supply. Among them, OPEC+ previously predicted that the average daily gap of global crude oil in the fourth quarter may be about 3 million barrels. This has also exacerbated the strength of crude oil prices.
From the market feedback, the price of ordinary gasoline increased by 1055 yuan / ton during the year, but since mid-July, the price of gasoline has increased by 1180 yuan / ton, which shows that since the third quarter, oil prices have shown a rapid trend. In late September, domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose sharply, of which gasoline rose as much as 385 yuan / ton, and diesel rose as high as 370 yuan / ton. Entering a new round of pricing cycle, on the last working day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic crude oil change rate was 1.47%, and the price of gasoline and diesel rose by about 64 yuan / ton.
However, during the National Day holiday, international oil prices "changed their faces", after WTI crude oil prices briefly rose above $95 per barrel, which intensified the market's concerns about this round of oil price increases. However, in the past two days, crude oil prices have soared and fallen, of which WTI crude oil prices have fallen back to about $90.7 / barrel, and Brent crude oil has fallen back to $92.1 / barrel, down about $4 per barrel compared with the previous high. Therefore, due to the fluctuation of international oil prices, the rate of change of crude oil may maintain a narrow adjustment trend in this round of pricing cycle, and the price increase of gasoline on October 1 is expected to stagnate at about 64 yuan / ton.
Hog prices
Hog prices are one of the important factors affecting the living standards of residents. Since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors such as African swine fever, environmental treatment, and feed costs, pig prices have fluctuated sharply. From the national average, the price of pigs rose from about 14.5 yuan / jin at the beginning of the year to about 20.5 yuan / jin in August, an increase of more than 40%. This has also led to a continuous rise in pork prices, putting pressure on residents' tables.
However, during the National Day holiday, hog prices showed signs of rebounding. According to market feedback, the price of foreign three-yuan pigs in the country was 7.95 yuan / jin, and the price increased by 0.03 yuan / jin in a narrow range. Pig prices are strongly adjusted, and from the market feedback, the pace of pig purchase and sales slowed down during the holiday. On the one hand, the enthusiasm of breeding to sell pigs has weakened, residents are busy celebrating the festival, some areas are affected by the autumn grain market, farmers are busy harvesting crops, the sentiment of pigs to buy prices and slaughter is weakened, and the pace of group pig enterprises slowing down; On the other hand, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays have greatly increased consumer demand.
conclusion
To sum up, after the National Day holiday, oil prices, pig prices and urea prices have changed to varying degrees. Oil prices are affected by the sharp decline in the international crude oil market, and it is expected that there will be a sharp reduction on October 7, which is good news for people who drive.
After the sharp decline in pig prices before the holiday, there was a certain degree of rebound after the holiday, but it was still at a low level, affected by the contradiction between supply and demand and policy regulation, there was still downward pressure in the short term, but in the long run, there was still room for growth. After the continuous decline in urea prices before the holiday, there are signs of weak recovery after the holiday, affected by factors such as cost, demand and exports, there is still the possibility of shock adjustment in the short term, but with the increase in autumn fertilizer consumption demand, the price may have a short pullback.
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