The good is coming! Hang Seng Technology jumped 1.55%, whether it rose after the holiday to see tonight's blockbuster event
A few days ago, we have been emphasizing with you that the core contradiction of the recent global stock market is the US bond yield, basically the US bond yield soared, the global stock market will fall, in turn, the US bond yield high falls, the global stock market will usher in a breathing period. As the anchor of global asset pricing, the US 10 bond yield itself is the core factor affecting the medium and long-term trend of the stock market, and once out of the acceleration trend, its long-term impact will explode in the short term, affecting short-term capital decisions and market bias, resulting in huge fluctuations at the trading level.
The performance of global stock markets during the holiday season is a typical example, with poor US economic data, market expectations for Fed rate hikes will ease, US Treasury yields will fall, and stocks will rebound, and vice versa.
Briefly combing the volatility of U.S. bond yields during the National Day holiday, the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter released by the United States on Friday and the monthly rate of the existing home sales index in August were significantly lower than market expectations, U.S. bond yields and the dollar index both pulled back sharply, global stock markets rebounded on the day, and the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Technology Index rose nearly 4%.
On Monday night, the United States released the September Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI are stronger than market expectations, of which the ISM manufacturing PMI has rebounded for three consecutive months, before the US service industry was strong and the manufacturing industry was weak, now the service industry is finally weakening, and the manufacturing industry has begun to pick up again. The market fears that the resilience of the US economy will cause the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time, the dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen again, and the US dollar index will rise above 107 to create a new stage high.
The 9.61 million job openings reported in the U.S. for August on Tuesday night were 9.61 million, beating market expectations of 8.8 million, indicating that the U.S. job market remains strong. As a result, the yield on the US Treasury note rose above 4.8%, and US stocks fell sharply that night and the Asia-Pacific stock market the next day.
But we have always stressed before that the risk of a recession in the United States is objective, and the US economic data is also "fighting". Last night's small non-farm payrolls data released in the United States fell month-on-month, significantly lower than market expectations, and the US Markit services PMI in September was lower than expected, just a foot in the door to fall below the boom and bust line, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index both dipped and global stock markets also rebounded. The Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded slightly by 0.14% on Thursday, and Hang Seng Technology closed up 1.55% on Friday, basically closing in the pre-holiday position, which is equivalent to no rise or fall during the holiday.
How the world goes after the holiday still depends on the subsequent US Treasury yields, the key is tonight's non-farm payrolls data, September unemployment rate and next week's CPI data, if these data do not significantly exceed expectations, with the current high US 10 bond yields, the Fed may continue not to raise interest rates in November.
Once again, we remind everyone not to worry too much, because the dollar index and US Treasury yields have been rising sharply for more than a month, not the beginning, but more likely nearing the end.
A well-known private equity fund manager said in an article last night that the current strength of the US bond interest rate and the US dollar is the end of the strong crossbow, just like the dusk before sunset, the last brilliant. The United States will turn to a real fiscal contraction next year, the economy is likely to have a recession that exceeds market expectations, the interest rate on U.S. bonds will also fall significantly, and the dollar will enter a depreciation cycle that may last for several years.
We also believe that the current is just a dead cat jump for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, and the dollar will most likely enter a downward cycle after this wave of climax. However, we will not blindly believe in the grand narrative, this year's market forecasts for the US economy and the dollar have been repeatedly slapped in the face, it is better to wait patiently for the confirmation of the signal of a trend reversal, do not make too many left bets, the climax of the dollar may end with a black swan event.
Risk Warning:
The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently