Sino-US relations are showing signs of improvement

The establishment of two vice-ministerial working groups has been established, and the establishment of these new mechanisms marks the resumption of regular economic dialogue between the world's two largest economies, creating more opportunities for the two sides to seek to bridge differences.

Jin Yan, a special correspondent for Caijing, came from Washington

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Beijing and Washington are pushing for high-level official exchanges between the United States and the United States, and the two sides are beginning to focus on engagement to ensure that the relationship between great power competition does not degenerate into conflict. Over the past few months, senior U.S. Cabinet officials have visited China, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Raimondo.

On September 18, local time, Vice President Han was meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his attendance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. From September 16 to 17, 2023 local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, held several rounds of meetings with US National Security Adviser Sullivan in Malta. The two sides conducted frank, substantive and constructive strategic communication on stabilizing and improving China-US relations. Wang Yi stressed that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable red line in Sino-US relations, and the US side must abide by the three Sino-US joint communiques and implement its commitment not to support "Taiwan independence." China's development has a strong endogenous driving force, which follows the inevitable historical logic and cannot be stopped, and the legitimate development rights of the Chinese people cannot be denied. The two sides agreed to continue to implement the important consensus reached at the Bali meeting of the two heads of state, maintain high-level exchanges between the two sides, and hold consultations on China-US Asia-Pacific affairs, maritime affairs and foreign policy. The two sides discussed measures to further support and facilitate personnel exchanges between the two countries.

Figure 1: Sino-US bilateral economic relations are gradually improving. Photo by "Caijing" reporter Jin Yan

On September 26, 2023, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, met with Paulson, former US Secretary of the Treasury and Chairman of the Paulson Foundation, and his entourage in Beijing. Wang Yi said that the trough of Sino-US relations is not in the interests of the two peoples, the expectations of the international community, and the trend of development of the times. There is no future in going back, and driving backwards in history will only crush yourself. China's policy toward the United States has maintained stability and continuity. The principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation put forward by President Xi Jinping have pointed out the way forward and provided common guidance for China-US relations. It is hoped that the US China policy will return to a rational and pragmatic track, take concrete actions, lengthen the positive list, narrow the negative list, and work with China to explore ways for the two major powers to live in peace.

It is reported that China and the United States are currently discussing a higher-level visit plan. U.S. President Joe Biden told the media after talks with the leaders of Japan and South Korea at Camp David on August 19 that he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in San Francisco in November this year.

China and the United States have taken a series of measures to improve the tone of bilateral relations, and the increased interaction between the two sides means that signs of improvement in Sino-US relations have begun to appear.

On September 29, local time, US President Biden posted on social media X (formerly Twitter) to send Mid-Autumn Festival blessings. "This Mid-Autumn Festival, Jill and I wish every family united, thankful, and praying happy, well-fed, well-fed," Biden wrote. Earlier, President Xi Jinping replied to Green, chairman of the US-China Aviation Heritage Foundation, and Flying Tigers veterans Moyer and McMullen said, "The healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations in the new era requires the participation and support of the Flying Tigers members in the new era, and I hope that the spirit of the Flying Tigers can be passed on from generation to generation between the two peoples." "An important message from President Xi Jinping is that the foundation of the U.S.-China relationship lies in the people.

In accordance with the consensus reached by the United States and at the invitation of the United States, Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong held consultations on Asia-Pacific affairs with Assistant Secretary of State for Asia-Pacific Affairs Conda in Washington on September 27, 2023. The two sides had a frank, in-depth and constructive exchange of views on China-US relations, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, their respective regional policies and international and regional issues of common concern. Sun Weidong expounded China's position on the Taiwan issue and stressed that the one-China principle is the cornerstone of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Sun Weidong also expressed China's position on the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy" pursued by the United States and the South China Sea. The Chinese side stressed that benign interaction between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region is in the common interests of both sides and is also the common aspiration of countries in the region. The two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication on Asia-Pacific affairs.

Figure 2: The expression of the US China policy has shifted from "decoupling" to "de-risking", but this will still bring uncertainty, and it is likely not a steady-state equilibrium. Photo by "Caijing" reporter Jin Yan

On September 29, local time, the Biden administration appointed veteran diplomat Mark Lambert as the top official of the US State Department's China policy, and will lead the work of the "Office of China Coordination", also known as the "China Group" (China House). The China Group was established late last year to unify and better coordinate cross-regional, multi-issue China policy. An expert on Asia, Lambert has served twice at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and most recently as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, where he focused on Japan, South Korea and Mongolia, as well as relations with Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island nations. "He (Lampert) has extensive experience dealing with PRC-related issues, developing consistent policies with our allies and partners, and protecting the integrity of the international system," the State Department said. ”

Robert Rubin, the 70th U.S. Treasury Secretary and honorary co-chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, said at the 2023 Bund Finance Summit that the United States and China should take more positive measures from a broader perspective. "For China and the United States, we should be aware of a matter of principle: both sides need each other." Rubin said that the current expression of US China policy has shifted from "decoupling" to "risk-based" or "risk-focused", but it may still have broader impacts or unnecessary impacts. At the heart of maintaining a strong U.S.-China relationship is the recognition that neither country can independently address the risks of climate change, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, and pandemics, and that cooperation will bring powerful appeal to the world. Rubin suggested that the two heads of state could continue to communicate to seek common interests, or hold more meetings similar to the Bund Finance Summit, inviting people from academia, politics, business, and finance to exchange views and enhance mutual understanding.

U.S. officials said China facilitated the release of an American soldier from North Korea this week. US media reported that US National Security Adviser Sullivan mentioned the incident of the US soldier in a meeting with Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, 10 days ago. These latest developments boost the momentum the two governments have been trying to build after months of heightened bilateral relations and signal a growing likelihood of President Xi Jinping's attendance at the Asia-Pacific Leaders' Summit in San Francisco in November. In addition to the summit, the Chinese government is seeking a separate, high-profile summit with Biden, which both governments see as likely to give impetus to months of tentative efforts to stabilize relations between the two countries. The two leaders last met in November 2022 ahead of the G20 Summit of Major Economies in Bali, Indonesia, when the two sides began resuming stalled talks on global priorities.

A few days ago, two vice-ministerial working groups between China and the United States have been established, and a number of Sino-US relations experts told the "Caijing" reporter that if China and the United States want to stabilize relations, similar institutional arrangements are needed to create more opportunities for the two sides to seek to bridge differences. The creation of these new mechanisms marks the resumption of regular economic dialogue between the world's two largest economies, which has been frozen since the height of the US-China trade war in 2018. Although the newly established working group covers a small area and discusses a relatively limited range of topics compared with the dialogue mechanisms established by China and the United States in the past, the easing of Sino-US relations is still in the warm-up stage.

A new concern is that U.S. officials fear that a shutdown could further delay meetings or summit plans. Due to the deepening of the bipartisan divide in the United States, less than half of the current 12 annual spending bills for government funding have been approved, and if they cannot reach agreement on September 29 and 30, and the temporary appropriation bill is not passed, the US government will face the dilemma of shutting down again on October 1. The US government has begun to prepare for the "shutdown", and unless Congress reaches a last-minute compromise, it is inevitable that the federal government will fall into "paralysis" and cause damage to the United States. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out in a report this week that the probability of the federal government shutting down on October 1 has risen to 90%, and the shutdown may last 2~3 weeks.