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Recently, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo indicated a high-profile move aimed at curbing Russia's ability to make unfair profits in the energy market. It is said that the United States initially set the guidance price of Russian crude at $44 per barrel, which is in line with Russia's own estimated crude oil production costs. The move is seen as preventing Russia from making excess profits in the energy crisis, thereby weakening its sources of funding. It also sparked a discussion about whether the West could repeat its strategy of defeating the Soviet Union with oil prices.
However, oil is indispensable as the lifeblood of industrial society, and its price is affected by the balance of supply and demand. In the case of imbalance between supply and demand, the supply side of oil production usually has structural power, which directly affects the distribution of prices. Without changing the structure of the market, it is often difficult for the demand side to influence prices.
However, India's latest statements suggest that the West still has the potential to change the structure of the market. According to Bloomberg, Indian Oil Minister Puri has said that India is willing to explore a proposal to set a ceiling on the price of Russian oil, which was put forward by the finance ministers of the seven countries. Puri has previously stated that India has been criticized after increasing Russian oil imports. This statement shows that under pressure from the United States, India had to reconsider its position and therefore promised to consider a price cap on Russian oil. Adeyemo also said India could join the ranks of setting a price cap on Russian oil. This shift in India could affect Russia's structural power over oil production and supply.
According to Russian customs data, Russian oil exports reached almost 229 million tons, or about 4.5 million barrels per day, of which 3 million barrels were transported by sea and 1.5 million barrels by pipeline, according to Russian customs data. In contrast, India imported 650,000 b/d of Russian oil in May 2022, rising to 980,000 b/d in June and falling slightly to 880,000 b/d in July. India's oil imports are already close to a third of Russia's seaborne oil in the same period last year.
If India turns completely to the West, Russia's oil exports are bound to fall sharply in the short term. Western pressure to set a price cap on Russian oil will soon spread to Russia itself. Although India stressed at this year's World Peace Forum that India, with its 1.4 billion people, is a world in itself and does not have to take sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict or the US-China competition, it turns out that India's foreign policy is still influenced by historical speculative nature. During the Cold War, India first launched the Non-Aligned Movement in pursuit of its own maximum interests, then extended a friendly hand to the United States and the Soviet Union, and eventually preferred to cooperate with the Soviet Union only when Nixon's meeting with the Indian prime minister did not work out.
However, in this event of setting a price cap on Russian oil, the summit of the finance ministers of the seven countries did not achieve a clear result. Only when India made it clear that it was willing to fulfill its commitment to set a price cap on Russian oil did the United States propose specific price cap criteria. India does not want to come under intense pressure from the United States, but it also wants to profit from Russian oil deals. Therefore, India's statement is full of speculative mentality.
In stark contrast to India is China. In May, China imported about 2 million barrels of Russian oil per day, nearly half of Russia's oil exports; 1.78 million b/d in June; July fell slightly to 1.68 million b/d. In terms of import volume, China is significantly higher than India. However, in the face of pressure and doubts from the West, China firmly defends its position. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning responded to a question from foreign media at a recent press conference about whether China has joined the "price limit" measure, pointing out that oil is an important global commodity and that ensuring the security of global energy supplies is crucial. China hopes that relevant countries will promote de-escalation through dialogue and consultation, not the other way around.
This means that China will not only not follow the West's actions to set a price cap on Russian oil, but also make it clear that the West's approach may increase tensions between Russia and Ukraine and hinder the achievement of peace. Therefore, China is a real one
A big country that pursues an independent policy. For whatever purpose, Western countries have no power or ability to interfere in China's internal affairs, and China will be responsible for its own decisions.
Another aspect that contrasts with China is that China has always been a country of credit. Looking back at the Crimean crisis in 2014, international oil prices plummeted, but China still imported Russian oil at the price stipulated in the contract, winning the respect of the Russian side. This kind of trustworthy behavior has established China's good reputation on the international stage.
Today's China will also not adopt a short-sighted "sitting on the ground" strategy like India. China understands that a stable energy supply is essential for the country's economic and social development. In international relations, keeping promises is a key factor in maintaining peace and stability, and China has been actively practicing this principle.
Through the Russian oil price cap crisis, Russia may be able to more clearly understand that its relationship with China can stand up to the test. China's firm stance means that China is an indispensable key power in the global order, while India can only be regarded as a regional power at best. In the international political arena, countries that act and adhere to principles tend to be more respected and trusted.
In conclusion, the event reveals the differences in positions and values between different countries in international politics. By upholding its commitments and maintaining stability in international relations, China has demonstrated its sense of responsibility as a world power and its independent foreign policy. In contrast, India's statement is full of short-term interests and speculation. This incident reminds us that trust and principle are paramount in international relations, and that China's performance in this regard has earned it wider respect and trust, and that China is a trusted global power. In future international relations, China will continue to play an active and responsible role and contribute to global peace and prosperity.
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