A shares end in September! The index fell by nearly 5%, and the most bullish stocks rose nearly 3 times, how will the market move after the holiday?
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On the last trading day of September, the A-share red market ended!
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to 3110.48 points, trading 288.4 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.05% to 10109.53 points, trading 428.8 billion yuan. The ChiNext index fell 0.12% to 2003.91 points.
On the market, semiconductor chip stocks such as lithography machines and semiconductor equipment rebounded in the afternoon, and Shengmei Shanghai rose by more than 15%; Huawei's Huawei-related concept stocks such as Starflash, Consumer Electronics, and Satellite Navigation rose strongly, 5G, 6G and other communication industry sectors followed the upward, and many stocks such as Hengwei Technology, Green Precision, Rapoo Technology, and OFILM rose to the limit.
Looking back at the market trend throughout September, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.96%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.69%. Northbound funds reduced their positions by nearly 37.5 billion yuan in September.
Next, the self-selected brother uses 5 pictures to take you to review the performance of A-shares in September:
Figure 1 (bottom): Average weekly daily trading in September showed "bottoming out"
On the whole, the average daily turnover in September showed a "bottoming out" trend, of which the lowest in the third week was 0.65 trillion, the first week was 0.78 trillion, and the last week was 0.71 trillion, does it look like a V-shape? (Statistical period from September 4 to September 28)
Figure 2 (bottom): Pro-cyclical sectors such as oil and gas and coal performed well in September
In terms of industries, pro-cyclical industries such as oil and gas and coal attracted much attention from the capital market in September, with oil and gas exploration and service industries rising by nearly 10% in September, and coal mining and processing rising by 8.42% in September. In terms of decline, real estate, media, aquaculture, education and other industries fell first.
Figure 3 (bottom): With the support of Huawei's concept, Tsit Wing Technology nearly tripled in September
Since August 29, the sudden listing of Huawei Mate 60 Pro has caused a sensation, Huawei concept stocks have continued to be active in the A-share market for nearly a month, and Jetwing Technology is one of the "hot players" in Huawei concept stocks, with a cumulative increase of 295.29% in September to occupy the top 1 of the gainers. Secondly, Zhongke Meiling and Changshan Pharmaceutical, which took the hype feast of diet drugs, both rose more than 2 times in September.
The list of decliners was dominated by individual stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Chengcheng Electronics, Bond Shares, Juneng Shares, Patel, and Hengjin Induction all fell by more than 70% in September.
Figure 4 (bottom): Banks and pharmaceutical stocks are mainly sought after
Bank of Jiangsu received the largest cumulative net inflow of more than RMB1.7 billion in September, followed by Agricultural Bank of China with more than RMB1.5 billion, and Mindray Medical and Hengrui Pharmaceutical with more than RMB1.4 billion. In terms of net outflow, Oriental Wealth was sold more than 2.5 billion yuan, and iFLYTEK, ZTE and China Unicom also ranked first in net sales.
Figure 5 (bottom): Northbound funds significantly reduced their positions in Moutai and Ningde
Northbound funds sold a net 4.995 billion yuan throughout the day. Northbound funds sold a net 17.5 billion yuan this week, and reduced their positions by nearly 37.5 billion yuan in September.
In September (September 1-September 27), the cumulative sale of northbound funds to CATL ranked first with 4.869 billion yuan, and the liquor "double heroes" Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye were thrown more than 4.8 billion yuan. In terms of net inflow, BYD ranked first in September with a northbound capital increase of 1.466 billion yuan, while Bank of Jiangsu and Gree Electric Appliances both received a cumulative increase of more than 1.1 billion yuan in northbound funds.
What do you think after the holiday?
What will happen to the A-share market after the holiday? Self-selected brother reviewed the data of nearly ten years for your reference.
Through historical data, it is found that after the National Day, the probability of the market rising is greater. Among them, the probability of rising on the first day after the holiday is as high as 80%, and in the 5 or 10 trading days after the holiday, the index has a total of 7 years of high years, and the probability of rising is also 70%.
Essence Securities also pointed out in a research report on September 17 that the probability of the market rebounding after November is relatively large. Measured by the July 24 meeting as the bottom of the current round of policies, the interval between the bottom of the current round of policy and the market bottom and the duration of the "last decline" have basically been met around November.
In general, the policy/credit bottom → the market bottom (2.5 months apart). At the same time, according to historical review, the duration of the "last fall" is around 20-30 trading days. In addition, there was a general decline in the first 5 trading days of the National Day, and a rebound and rise in the 5 trading days after the holiday. According to statistics, the average returns of each index have inverted to varying degrees before and after the holiday.
Specific to the industry, according to the statistics of Guangdong Securities, the probability of pre-holiday rise in various industries is generally not high, while the probability of rising after the holiday is significantly higher than that before the holiday, and the certainty before and after the holiday is relatively high for the large consumption sectors related to holiday consumption travel, and the average post-holiday growth rate is leading for the growth sector.
The industries with a high probability of rising before the National Day mainly include offline consumption sectors such as food and beverage, beauty care, and social services related to the holiday, as well as pharmaceutical and biological sectors with strong defensive attributes. The probability of rising in the industry after the holiday is significantly higher than before the holiday, and the rise probability of 31 Shenwan primary sectors is not less than 60%, of which 21 Shenwan primary sectors have a rise probability of more than 80%, while the industries with a rise probability of 90% are mostly concentrated in consumption and holiday travel related sectors, such as beauty care, automobiles, transportation, etc.; Taken together, there is no significant correlation in most industries.
Source: Tencent Stock Selection Finance
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