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Today, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is very different from the 90s of the last century. At that time, although the 96 Taiwan Strait crisis was tense, it did not last, and now, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is no longer easy to get rid of the control of the Sino-US game, unless there is a huge reversal of strength between China and the United States.
Recently, a German expert made a striking prediction: Chinese mainland could take military action to recover Taiwan on the night of the full moon in January 2025. This prediction is based on three main factors: first, the US election will end by then, and party forces will undergo transformation and pain, which may lead to a slow response to the situation in the Taiwan Strait; Second, the sea surface is usually calmer in winter, which is conducive to the PLA's crossing of the Taiwan Strait; Finally, during the Chinese New Year, the population movement is large, and the PLA can assemble troops at this time, which is not easy to be detected by the outside world and better maintains secrecy.
The German expert's reasons for his predictions seem to be well founded. He noted that once the Chinese mainland took action, a surprise strategy might be adopted and the moment when the international situation was most favourable was chosen. This also echoes the domestic political situation in the United States.
However, to specifically address January 2025, the situation may be more complicated, as the outcome of the general election on the island will be an important variable. After all, war is always a last resort, and it breaks out only when it is a last resort. Therefore, the situation in January 2025 will also depend on the outcome of the general election on the island, because the war is actually a gamble of national fortunes.
Contrary to Germany's view, U.S. think tank experts have put forward a more pessimistic forecast, arguing that Chinese mainland may focus on armed action at 2024, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2049, while the United States will intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict. According to the former deputy defense secretary of the United States, if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, 500 American aircraft will enter the Taiwan Strait in 10 days and engage the PLA, which may depart from airfields in South Korea and Japan, and the United States has begun to prepare for a possible conflict.
The former deputy defense minister said this mainly based on the correlation between the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. At a recent seminar on the Asia-Pacific situation in Seoul, South Korea, U.S. diplomatic and security experts focused on two issues: the U.S.-South Korea Washington Declaration on Dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis, and the formulation of specific measures to address the Taiwan Strait crisis.
In fact, behind the "response to the Taiwan Strait crisis" is an intention, that is, the intention to confront China militarily. American think tank expert Forne said at the seminar that the international community now needs to remain vigilant, not only because of the threat of economic supply chains, but more importantly, because of the growing military threat from China. If the PLA takes action by force, it will affect not only Northeast Asia, but also Europe.
The US expert's statement was clearly encouraging South Korea to take action and reminding South Korea to be alert to the possible impact of the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea seems to have always taken a conservative approach to the Taiwan Strait, which may have something to do with the pressure the People's Liberation Army put on South Korean troops during the Korean War in the last century.
Immediately afterwards, Ho Mu-li, who served as deputy defense secretary of defense, said that the United States is considering whether a war in the Taiwan Strait will turn into a war on the Korean Peninsula, so the United States and South Korea need to strengthen military ties. He mentioned that if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will send 500 military aircraft into the Taiwan Strait within 10 days, and South Korea needs to be prepared because these planes may need to depart from South Korean and Japanese airports.
It is worth noting that this is not just a personal opinion, the US military has discussed this plan with South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue. Undoubtedly, this reflects the unwavering position of the United States to prevent further expansion of China.
Ho also emphasized: "The United States will not allow China to enter the Pacific. His rhetoric suggests that the United States may intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait, so China must be prepared to meet potential challenges.
It should be pointed out that if the US military aircraft arrives in the Taiwan Strait within 10 days, the PLA may have completed the reunification of the island, so time is of the essence for both sides. The uncertainty of this situation has made the Taiwan Strait issue more complicated, and all parties are
Careful action and strategic planning are urgently needed. The whole situation is already like a complex chess game, and every step is related to the security and future of the country.
Against this tense background, the game between China and the United States is escalating. The rivalry between the two countries has spread far beyond the region and has spread across the globe. The Taiwan Strait became the centerpiece of the struggle, and Taiwan became the key to symbolism. The United States stands firmly behind Taiwan not only for strategic considerations, but also because it represents a symbol of democracy, freedom, and values.
Chinese mainland believes that Taiwan is part of its territory and firmly advocates reunification. The Taiwan issue has always been one of the sensitive points in the U.S.-China relationship, and it has become especially complicated with the rise of China. Chinese mainland already has strong military strength and economic resources, which gives it greater leverage on the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan itself is facing enormous challenges. Political divisions persist on the island, and rivalries between different political parties remain serious. Taiwan's government must defend its sovereignty under domestic and international pressure, while also garnering more support on the international stage.
The international community has also begun to express concern about this situation. The instability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait may pose a serious threat to global peace and stability. Therefore, all countries are calling for resolving differences through dialogue and diplomacy to avoid military conflicts.
To sum up, the complexity and uncertainty of the situation in the Taiwan Strait have made this region the focus of international attention. The game between China and the United States, the challenges inside and outside Taiwan, and the concerns of the international community all constitute a complex situation. At this critical juncture, all parties need to remain calm and actively seek a peaceful solution to maintain regional and global peace and stability. It is hoped that the international community will work together to find a lasting and peaceful solution to the Taiwan Strait issue, so that the people can stay away from the flames of war and usher in a more peaceful future.
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