The bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish.
What is the most expensive now?
Gold.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been two phenomena that everyone is most concerned about:
The renminbi depreciated and gold soared.
On September 26, the offshore dollar/yuan exchange rate fell below 7.3, the lowest value since the data was available in 2011.
It stands to reason that the biggest impact of the depreciation of the renminbi is negative investor sentiment, which will lead to capital outflows.
But because of the control of foreign exchange, I can't go out, what should I do?
So, the price of gold has risen.
Last week, the price of Shanghai gold rushed to 480 yuan / gram, refreshing the record high, and the price of jewelry gold exceeded 600 yuan.
Last year, the renminbi depreciated 9.2 percent, but domestic gold rose 9.8 percent.
But what is very strange is that the recent domestic gold price diverged from the international gold price, and the domestic price was 5% higher than the international premium.
This just shows that this round of gold price increases, not because gold is worth money, on the contrary, the money has depreciated.
I've seen a lot of comments lately about going to buy gold.
In fact, gold in peacetime has never been a good investment product, there is such a sentence, prosperous antique troubled gold.
The greater the social turmoil, the more hedging gold is.
The extra premium now is likely to fall back after the wind and waves calm, and in the long run, buying gold now must not be the best choice.
But looking at the essence through the phenomenon, in fact, the common pain points of most people are:
Can't find the right investment.
Most people's investment choices are nothing more than buying houses, buying stocks, and buying gold.
Houses in first-tier cities are of course good, but most people are suffering from quotas and funds, and the stock market is an old scumbag, and if you don't buy it, you will earn.
So you will find that you can only play with gold.
But obviously, I think most people's thinking problems limit their vision.
Why do we often talk about diversification, diversification?
Is there a possibility that instead of letting you buy all kinds of things, but do it geographically and horizontally dispersed?
Is it really time for Stud to buy gold?
Or did you decide to do nothing under the big release?
The question is left for everyone to think about first.
First, let's update a concept:
From a global perspective, the myth of real estate wealth never stops!
It's just that over time the gears rotate in countries around the globe.
These two sentences are recommended to be carefully tasted.
Real estate in our country started relatively late, but we can look at the path of growth of foreign real estate:
From 1980 to 1990, Japanese real estate prices increased fivefold in 10 years.
Even if Japan loses 30 years of economic development, Japan is still a developed country, and the Tokyo metropolitan area, where Japan's population is concentrated, is also rising.
In 2023, the growth rate of new homes in Japan will directly rise, and the average price of new homes in May will increase by 32.5% year-on-year, setting a record for a single month.
What about population decline, fertility and aging?
Therefore, Japan tells us through facts: aging and declining birthrate are not problems, and there are other reasons that determine the rise and fall of real estate.
Looking at the beautiful country, from 1946 to 2006, the nominal house price index continued to grow positively, rising 24 times in 2006 compared with 1945, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4%.
And you'll find that almost every big rise in U.S. house prices is accompanied by a surge in inflation.
Further upside opportunities came Hong Kong.
From 2006 to 2016, house prices in Hong Kong, China increased eightfold in 10 years.
After that, it is the most familiar Chinese mainland, from 2009 to 2019 Chinese mainland house prices increased 10 times in 10 years.
Looking at history, it is nothing more than what I said at the beginning:
1. No matter which country, house prices are still rising in the long run. (Provided that the assets are of good quality)
2. Real estate is definitely a good variety to fight inflation. (Of course, also a high-quality asset)
Therefore, the best way to lack assets is not to buy gold without buying assets, but to buy assets from a global perspective.
You will find that between different countries, the time for house prices to rise sharply is different, why not all of them rise together?
There is a dark line behind it: that is, the speed of industrial development, which rotates between different countries.
If you study the logic inside, you will find that the years of soaring house prices were accompanied by the rapid growth of the country's real economy.
And this is what I mean by opportunity, the thinking of global asset allocation, is to understand the opportunity of industrial opportunities to rotate in different countries!
Industrial chains are not only transferred from country to country, but also from city to city.
If you stand in the national asset allocation thinking, it is nothing more than finding the next city that still has the opportunity to achieve explosive economic growth.
If you think in global asset allocation, it is nothing more than finding the next country that still has the opportunity to achieve explosive economic growth.
Allocating gold protects against risk, but gold does not generate cash flow.
To put it bluntly, gold is only suitable as a safe-haven asset, but it must not be a high-quality asset.
A high-quality asset must bring you cash flow.
What do you mean?
Available and available for rent.
And this, to be honest, has to be real estate.
I'm not saying that you can only buy a house, you can do diversified investment, stocks, funds, gold, real estate, and even antiques, calligraphy and painting.
But you have to judge what is the most central and stable for your family's wealth.
For most people, it's still a house.
The financial attributes of the house have determined that a good house must bring you cash flow.
In other words, you can live on your own or rent it out.
Of course, the premise is a good house.
For example, as they grow older and their income decreases, some people are very concerned about rental returns, because rental income + pension + savings are completely enough for them to have a high-quality pension life.
So many people will buy some sojourn houses, just to live in + rent out occasionally.
But the facts also disappointed many people, because most houses are simply not easy to rent.
At present, even in first-tier cities in China, the general rental return rate is about 2%, and even most bank wealth management products may not win.
If you look at the world, some countries can achieve a rental return of more than 5%, such as Thailand.
Thailand itself is also a tourist country, with a large number of tourists every year, plus Thailand is also a developing country, the population and urbanization rate are developing rapidly, and there is a great demand for housing and renting.
This is the reason why Thailand's rental return rate is somewhat supported, followed by the hidden reason that many people do not know, Thailand has a high level of international education.
Now many parents of chicken babies in China have begun to dig a second way, either to take Hong Kong identity or overseas education, the purpose is to make their children more comprehensive development and reduce the degree of involution.
Thailand's international education level is obviously the best choice for some middle class, one is similar in culture and low in difficulty in integration.
Secondly, the expenditure is small, most of the British schools in Thailand are in the first echelon, the tuition fee is also more than 100,000 a year, compared with the parents who have been in the price range, you should know that this fee is not high.
In fact, the comprehensive also explains why many rich people and celebrities always like to buy property overseas.
1. Real estate is bullish in the long term, no matter which country it is in.
2. The house itself is also a hedging asset, which can be lived in or rented.
3. No matter where the house is, it comes with various attributes, such as circle, education, medical care, and so on.
Again, don't rule out any possibility, many people think they don't have a choice, that may be a problem of poor information.