Immerse yourself in self-hi, India's bizarre way of statistics! How to water in GDP?
India has been excited lately.
They reported an annualized growth of 7.8% in the second quarter.
That's more than two percentage points higher than China's 5.5 percent.
The third brother's confidence immediately exploded.
But if we take a closer look at the breakdown, look at how India calculates their GDP?
We will find that India's ability to flood data is definitely not something we can match.
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In general, there are probably two ways to calculate a country's GDP.
One is to calculate the increase in the total production of all the whole society.
China adopts this measurement method.
The other is to calculate how much money the whole society spends in total, and then calculate the actual economic scale this year according to the adjustment of inventory.
In principle, the two should be the same.
In practice, you will find:
Production is generally solid and has strong data support; But spending or consumption may be more difficult to say.
At this time, it is easy to have a lot of "watering" or "accounting accounts".
Countries such as the United States and India use the spending method to calculate their GDP.
Let's take a look at what India's calculated GDP is to find out what is tricky.
The three largest segments of India's GDP statistics are:
Consumption spending in the private sector, consumption spending in the government sector, and new investment in fixed assets.
These are normal in terms of major items, but there are a lot of tricks in them, let's put them aside.
To my surprise, there is a special item in India's GDP statistics that is "stock market movements".
And this project can actually become a statistical part of GDP!
Indeed, I still have too little knowledge.
Perhaps for Indians, they think that the changes in the stock market are also caused by their money in and out, and the flow of funds should certainly calculate GDP~
But we all know that the reason why the stock market is called the "virtual economy" is that it is not a game that can only play a dollar for a dollar, it is leveraged, and it has many ways to blow this bubble even bigger.
If India has a big bull market, wouldn't their GDP growth be properly managed?
Of course, India's stock market is still relatively small, with net variables accounting for less than 4% of GDP.
But you must know that India's total growth is only 7.8%, which is actually a lot of comparison.
There's plenty of room in between to do some "Indian-style adjustments."
The results of imports and exports will also be calculated in India's GDP, of course, there should not be too much trickery in this.
After all, other countries also have statistics, and it is easy to find out if they are too flooded.
So where is India really watered?
In fact, it is in the "private consumption expenditure" part that accounts for 60% of India's GDP.
In a word, India will estimate "non-market transactions" and even "black market transactions" that cannot be counted by conventional methods into their GDP.
The so-called black market trading is unformal, gray, black and even illegal trading practices.
This kind of transaction is not so easy to count in almost any country, and it is even difficult to find a provider of goods or services, let alone be included in GDP.
India has really managed to emulate some so-called developed Western countries, including drugs, sex trafficking, smuggling, and other black market transactions in their GDP according to estimates.
Even I read on the Internet that they have a statistic that includes slums in GDP ...
We all know that India is a country with a huge gap between rich and poor, and they have a lot of slums.
A large number of people live in shacks that "blow down when the wind blows".
The construction of this kind of thing may be done casually, and even there is no construction cost, other benefits, and so on.
There is almost no way to effectively count how many people live in such shacks.
However, India can estimate the size of such a slum, and estimate the rent of this slum into GDP based on the market price of normal houses.
No matter whether anyone has paid or not, GDP must not run anyway.
In addition, India has a lot of cattle that no one dares to mess with, and the roads are full of cow dung.
This stuff is also counted by the Indian Bureau of Statistics as fuel, fertilizer, etc., and included in their GDP...
Of course, we also cannot understand what this GDP means for India ...
Probably for your own amusement.
There are many more projects of all kinds, only you can't think of it, there is no Indian who can't remember.
In this way, India has created an annualized growth rate of 7.8%, which makes them very happy.
That's all!