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For a time, there was a heated discussion on the Internet about "the property market may explode in 2024". However, opinions are divided, with some believing and others skeptical. Is it true or false? How credible is this claim?
First, I conducted some research, but found that only some individual self-media accounts and a few financial media outlets made this prediction, while authoritative institutions such as the National Bureau of Statistics and CCTV did not release relevant information. Even relatively prestigious institutions, such as Kerry and the Middle Finger Institute, do not offer similar statistical forecasts. This makes the veracity of this claim require further verification.
Second, to assess whether China's property market is likely to explode, we must first clarify what "explosion" means. Generally speaking, the explosion consists of two key conditions: a sharp increase in sales transactions and an increase in the increase in house prices. However, achieving these two goals in a short period of time is not easy.
First of all, increasing the volume of the property market requires a lot of demand, however, the current property market is in a state of low demand, and many people already own homes. According to the central bank's report, the urban household home ownership rate is as high as 96%. This is because many people's parents and grandparents acquired housing when welfare housing was divided, and with the influx of commercial housing, real estate changed from housing to more financial assets.
The monetized resettlement policy of shantytown reform has led to a large number of demolition households pouring into the market, due to the higher investment security of real estate for the people, the phenomenon of house speculation has risen rapidly, and a large number of people have invested and hoarded real estate, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. Housing enterprises have increased development and construction, further aggravating the property market bubble and disrupting the economic balance. After the strong regulation and control of the state, the housing price bubble burst, and house speculators withdrew from the market. Although housing companies have reduced investment and development, the problem of excess real estate still exists.
In addition, with the high housing prices and the implementation of the policy of housing instead of speculation, the ability and enthusiasm of many families to buy houses have declined. In addition, population growth has been declining year by year, and despite the liberalization of the two-child and three-child policies, the enthusiasm for buying a house has not increased significantly. High housing prices and great pressure to buy a home have forced many people to postpone their home purchase plans.
To sum up, considering the plight of population growth, high housing prices and the cooling trend of the housing market, the idea of trying to make the housing market explode in just one year seems unreasonable. Therefore, for families who are worried about the sharp rise in the housing market, there is no need to rush into the market to buy a house now. The decision to buy a home should be based on the actual needs of the individual, and those seeking to invest and speculate should avoid blindly following the trend into the market. After all, the goal of the housing policy is to control the sharp rise in housing prices and achieve the steady development of the property market.
On the other hand, if you have enough money to make a down payment, some regions announce that you can use CPF to make a down payment, which may be good news for you. However, if you need to take out a loan to buy a home, in addition to considering loan eligibility, you also need to ensure job and income stability, as the loan term is usually 10 to 30 years and monthly repayments are required.
In summary, if you meet these conditions, then consider entering the market to buy a house, which may reduce the risk. Finally, we still need to remain vigilant about the future trend of the property market and pay close attention to policy changes and market dynamics.
For those who have enough savings for a down payment, some regions allow the use of CPF for down payments, which is undoubtedly good news. However, if you need a loan to buy a home, then in addition to considering loan eligibility, it is also necessary to ensure that your job and income are stable. After all, loans are typically over a period of 10 to 30 years, requiring monthly repayments on time, which is a long-term financial responsibility that requires careful consideration.
In summary, to understand the future direction of the housing market, we must make informed decisions based on individual circumstances. If you're worried that the housing market could rise significantly, it may not be wise to buy a home now. Instead, you should consider your actual housing needs and make a home purchase plan based on those needs. For those pursuing investment and speculation, blindly following the trend into the market is dangerous, and the risks may far outweigh the potential rewards.
At the same time, government policies will play a key role. The stable and healthy development of the property market requires the government to take a series of measures to balance supply and demand, prevent the formation of bubbles, and ensure that house prices will not rise unreasonably sharply. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the government's policy adjustments and market dynamics in order to make timely decisions.
Finally, regardless of the future of the housing market, the decision to buy a house should be prudent, considering your financial situation, living needs and market conditions. Don't be swayed by all kinds of rumors and hype in the market, and make wise choices based on your actual situation. The property market is a complex field where risks and opportunities coexist, and only well-thought-out decisions can ensure your financial security and future happiness.
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